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ESL Guru

Joined: 18 May 2003 Posts: 462
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2003 12:46 pm Post subject: Reality Check May 20, 2003 |
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WHO claims China is under reporting SARS again.
May 19 a new directive reaches certain central China schools restricting foreign experts to campus.
Road blocks are observed by many in different provinces.
Let us create our own truth squad. Report what you know, when you knew it and how you learned it. If a rumor, so state. If first hand knowledge, so state.
Let's share with each other what we know about SARS in China. |
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gerard

Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Posts: 581 Location: Internet Cafe
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2003 3:50 pm Post subject: |
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I read today-the 20th that the WHO are saying sars is declining everywhere including China. It was (ok.ok) the peoples daily website. But I have no sources in China although I saw nothing in UK papers to contradict it. I WAS in a good mood after reading this. Well see I guess. |
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roaming kiwi

Joined: 04 Apr 2003 Posts: 33 Location: China - to the right and up a bit
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2003 6:22 pm Post subject: |
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Okay you crazy kids out there!
This is the link to the WHO site. I know of at least one person who cannot access it from within the PRC, but give it a go...
http://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/
This site is updated almost daily and does not have the slant of the Peoples Daily etc. It also has a link to a table that lists places with infection and associated travel warnings. Specific provinces in the PRC are listed. It doesn't, however, tell what's happening at ground level. But it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick...
Just for those who are interested, I've pasted the report from the 19th of May.
And if my visual memory serves me correctly, Hamish lists links to many sources of information in another topic area. There is also another topic area that is devoted to rumours etc. A bit more snooping, and these topic areas are easy to find...
kiwi
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Update 59 - Report on Guangxi (China) visit, situation in Taiwan, risk of SARS transmission during air travel
19 May 2003
Report on Guangxi (China) visit
Guangxi Province appears to be responding well to its relatively small SARS outbreak, with the disease given high priority by both populations and health officials. This conclusion was reached by WHO experts following a joint field visit with Ministry of Health officials. To date, Guangxi has reported 22 probable SARS cases and 3 deaths.
Some concern had been expressed that this "poverty province", with its weak health infrastructure, would not be able to cope with a SARS outbreak. "We found the province well mobilized. There appears to be no major epidemic there", said WHO team leader CK Lee. The team returned last Saturday to Beijing after a week-long visit in the province.
Experts found an effective surveillance system set up to detect cases. Diagnostic procedures, treatment, and infection control at all hospitals visited was considered adequate. While no evidence of concealment of cases was found, the numbers of probable SARS cases could be higher due to problems with how cases are being defined.
The team found that two separate clusters of SARS cases, dating from December and January, had recently been detected by local health officials following a review of hospital records.
Guangxi's surveillance system, which is similar to that of Hebei Province, relies on active, rigorous community-based surveillance, close checking of migrants returning home, and quarantine for two weeks in certain cases. An adequate case reporting system has been set up, with detailed reports sent daily from each city or prefecture to the provincial level.
According to official records, some 260,000 migrant workers returned to Guangxi between April 1 and May 8, of whom 200,000 workers came from neighbouring Guangdong province. Surveillance checkpoints have been set up at main entry points into the province to register these workers. Screening teams staffed by township hospital doctors also visit villages to monitor returning workers.
Hospital management appeared to be effective. Due to scrupulous infection control, no health care workers have been reported as infected. However, some measures taken may be unwarranted, unsustainable or even inappropriate. For example, health care workers are using three layers of hats, gowns, gloves and masks. Two of the three masks are made up of a 12-layer gauze material.
Experts are also concerned that the numbers of reported cases may be low, due to how cases are being classified under the probable, suspect and "under observation" categories. WHO experts are further investigating this issue and working with the Ministry of Health to bring the national standard case definitions more in line with WHO case definitions.
In a separate development, WHO has requested that joint research be undertaken to investigate the origins of the coronavirus to predict its possible reintroduction into the community.
Situation in Taiwan
Taiwan has today reported a cumulative total of 344 probable SARS cases with 40 deaths. On 17 May Taiwan reported 34 new cases, and 36 new cases were reported the following day, making Taiwan the most rapidly growing outbreak at present.
As the SARS situation in Taiwan has evolved quickly, with cases now being reported in at least six hospitals, it is possible that the large number of cases being reported daily represents a backlog of cases that are only now being recognized as SARS.
Lapses in infection control, particularly in emergency rooms, may have been one reason for the rapid increase in cases, particularly in hospitals.
Local authorities are focusing on improving their infection control measures. Cases are now less likely to go unrecognized in emergency rooms, many of which have been reorganized to minimize the risk of further SARS transmission. A new monitoring system will also establish guidelines and procedures for the assignment of hospital beds in isolation wards.
The department of health has established a 24-hour case reporting system to handle SARS reports made by physicians and hospitals. Delays in case reporting are punishable by law, and in the severest cases, subject to imprisonment.
Taiwan authorities have adopted thorough contact tracing and quarantine measures to prevent further spread. The joint WHO-CDC team in Taiwan is working to ensure that detailed practical guidelines, developed by Hong Kong, Singapore, and other successful initial outbreak sites, are being made available to Taiwanese authorities. In particular, guidance on the safe screening of persons presenting with fever, and advice on policies for home quarantine and prevention of spread within schools are being shared by teams at other outbreak sites.
Officials in Kaohsiung, Taiwan's second largest city, have adopted contingency plans for the city, county and region. Should Kaohsiung exceed the simulated level of preparedness, the next level involves military intervention. The city's level of preparedness in hospitals appears to be good
WHO is confident that Taiwan will bring the outbreak under control using methods of case detection, isolation and good infection control in hospitals, vigorous contact tracing and follow-up surveillance, and public education and information that have proven their effectiveness in other areas. Additional WHO support staff will be sent to Taiwan soon.
Risk of SARS transmission during air travel
Globally, WHO has analysed information, as of 12 May, on 35 flights in which a probable symptomatic SARS case was among the passengers or crew. To date, symptomatic probable SARS cases on four of these flights have been associated with possible transmission of infection to fellow passengers or crew.
The most recent flight during which SARS may have been transmitted from a probable symptomatic case to another fellow passenger, seated next to each other, occurred on 23 March during a flight from Bangkok to Beijing.
On 27 March, WHO issued recommendations for the screening of air passengers departing from areas with recent local transmission. In some areas that have experienced severe SARS outbreaks, including Hong Kong SAR and Singapore, measures being applied at airports exceed those recommended by WHO. In these areas, prompt detection and isolation of cases, and rigorous tracing and home confinement or quarantine of all contacts have served as the first line of protection against the risk that an infectious person could board an aircraft. Stringent measures for export screening confer yet another level of protection.
Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 7864 probable SARS cases with 643 deaths have been reported from 28 countries. This represents an increase of 116 new cases and 20 deaths when compared with the last global update on Saturday.
The new deaths occurred in China (7), Hong Kong (8 ), and Taiwan (5). |
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ESL Guru

Joined: 18 May 2003 Posts: 462
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klasies

Joined: 04 Mar 2003 Posts: 178 Location: China
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ESL Guru

Joined: 18 May 2003 Posts: 462
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Posted: Wed May 21, 2003 4:36 am Post subject: |
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How can you guys teach English if you can not even read it?
"In website discussions, many netizens, who are supposed to be the more educated, active and sophisticated segments of the population, blame others for the epidemic. Some claim that it is the result of the Americans launching biological warfare against China. Even senior politicians claim that the virus was created by the US to divert world attention away from its invasion and occupation of Iraq.
Many people also believed that the World Health Organisation (WHO) travel advisory against parts of China was part of a conspiracy since it echoed the call by the American media to quarantine China."
Guess you missed it because it was not in the first coupel of paragraphs.
As to my avatar, I have shown you the best on a separate posting but can not use it without being banned.
AND AT LEAST MY HAIR IS NEATLY COMBED! |
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kathleen
Joined: 24 Apr 2003 Posts: 38 Location: Nanjing
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Posted: Wed May 21, 2003 9:07 pm Post subject: credibility gap |
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Reading the daily postings on the WHO website is all well and good but please excuse me for pointing out the obvious: they get their numbers from the Chinese government.
There is no way to know how many people have really died of SARS, nor is there any way to know how many of the suspected cases are really SARS cases. How many people die of regular pneumonia in China everyday? Quite a few.
Once again, I raise the question, why is someone who has been in hospital for more than 10 days still classified as a suspected case? We have 8 such yi si bing li here in Nanjing. Two suspected cases were released this week and we saw one guy on TV still wearing his mask as he returned to his home in the countryside. Officially, he never had SARS, he was just in hospital for 2 weeks. What did he have? A common cold? |
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Hamish

Joined: 20 Mar 2003 Posts: 333 Location: PRC
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Posted: Wed May 21, 2003 10:12 pm Post subject: Re: credibility gap |
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kathleen wrote: |
Two suspected cases were released this week and we saw one guy on TV still wearing his mask as he returned to his home in the countryside. Officially, he never had SARS, he was just in hospital for 2 weeks. What did he have? A common cold? |
I dunno.
Evidently not SARS.
The same bugs that made us sick before SARS (Remember before SARS? Seems a long time ago.) are still here.
And, there are more new ones coming tomorrow.
Regards, |
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ESL Guru

Joined: 18 May 2003 Posts: 462
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Posted: Wed May 21, 2003 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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My Chinese friend in Shanghai called this a.m., Thursday, and reported that Shanghai TV last night reported a major new outbreak of SARS in a housing project in that city. Apparently like the original outbreak in the Hong Kong housing project.
Can anyone confirm this.
Last night at our school the usual night lights were truned off so the students could not see what they were doing when attempting to climb over walls or throuigh drainage channels to get out of the school for a while. Construction is everywhere, adding height and broken glass to walls and iron bars over drainage pipes. They say this to prevent the student from going out and bringing sars back and infecting the FE's.
So our students are restricted to campus, but not our faculty, just to protect us FE's? Isn't that great for improved student-teacher relations. All of the student anger over being imprisoned can now be directed at us foreign teachers. |
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kathleen
Joined: 24 Apr 2003 Posts: 38 Location: Nanjing
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Posted: Thu May 22, 2003 12:30 pm Post subject: suspected cases |
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Hamish, with all due respect, I must remind you that in order to be hospitalized as a suspected SARS patient (yi si bing li) a patient must present with the following: fever over 38 C, dry cough, and previous close contact with a confirmed or suspected SARS patient. These people who have been in hospital for over two weeks do not just have a cold. |
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Hamish

Joined: 20 Mar 2003 Posts: 333 Location: PRC
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Posted: Thu May 22, 2003 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: credibility gap |
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kathleen wrote: |
These people who have been in hospital for over two weeks do not just have a cold. |
Yeah, but...
Hamish wrote: |
Evidently not SARS. |
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kathleen
Joined: 24 Apr 2003 Posts: 38 Location: Nanjing
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Posted: Thu May 22, 2003 9:45 pm Post subject: not evident. |
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Well, then why are they still classified as "suspected" cases? Because their fevers and other symptoms have not responded to antibiotic or antiviral treatment in over two weeks. If they were without fever for 7 days they would have been released by now. |
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ESL Guru

Joined: 18 May 2003 Posts: 462
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Posted: Thu May 22, 2003 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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Hamish - report to sick bay - that's an order. Security! Security! |
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Hamish

Joined: 20 Mar 2003 Posts: 333 Location: PRC
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Posted: Thu May 22, 2003 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: not evident. |
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kathleen wrote: |
Well, then why are they still classified as "suspected" cases? Because their fevers and other symptoms have not responded to antibiotic or antiviral treatment in over two weeks. If they were without fever for 7 days they would have been released by now. |
As I said, I dunno.
As I understand the reporting system, "suspected cases" are included in the total body count. Thus their classification does not change the grand total. All I can comment on is what I see happening here in Baoding. Here, in my opinion, given the resources available and those are pretty good, the Chinese authorities are doing an excellent job.
Frankly, I don't think Western countries have or will do any better in terms of controlling an entirely new, unknown, virulent disease that presents symptoms that are easily confused with other, common, maladies.
As for the intent to conceal, I don't find the Chinese government�s behavior to be outrageous. I remind you that the British government concealed Mad Cow Disease for a substantial period when it knew that a serious problem existed, and my own government (The US) has only recently confessed to killing about 15,000 American citizens who's only sin was that they lived downwind of atmospheric atomic bomb tests.
Regards, |
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ESL Guru

Joined: 18 May 2003 Posts: 462
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Posted: Fri May 23, 2003 10:00 am Post subject: |
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Henan Province Ministry of Education issued new directive today, May 23, 2003.
College students, graduate or otherwise, shall not be diosmissed to go home before June 30. Many were scheduled to leave next Monday as they have already graduated. |
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