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teacher4life
Joined: 22 Apr 2012
Posts: 121
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 Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Again, consider the average Japanese who is NOT a homeowner. Deflation is GOOD for them because they will be able to buy proprty cheaper in the future! |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 1:19 pm Post subject: |
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| teacher4life wrote: |
| Again, consider the average Japanese who is NOT a homeowner. Deflation is GOOD for them because they will be able to buy proprty cheaper in the future! |
Deflation is a vortex of doom. If their buying buying increases, they'll wait. Which willead to more deflation is the past 20 years in Japan. The strong yen also supports more imports, which too is bad for Japan's economic model |
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hagiwaramai
Joined: 24 May 2010
Posts: 119
Location: Marines Stadium
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| Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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I see the theory to this deflation business, but has any economist every shown a real-life example of it being a bad thing? If I can wait and don't feel the need to buy something surely by definition it's not worth that much in the first place. If I want to buy a house to move out of my small flat I'm not going to wait forever because I don't want to live in my small flat until I die, so it doesn't matter even if there is deflation because soon enough I will bite the bullet and buy it even if prices are very slowly going down. I'm not going to starve myself either so I'm going to buy food pretty sharpish irrespective of the prices, I even don't want to wait too long to hear some new album either so I'm going to pick it up soon enough, so I don't see why it would be a problem for actually necessary goods.
On the other hand if I don't feel the need to buy something, because the demotivational force of deflation is so strong, then surely it was hardly worth buying in the first place. It might not be good for the people who thrive on inflation but for the ordinary man in the street, how does he suffer practically?
For all the talk of Japan being in a deflationary depression the last decade or so the people seem happier and things seem to be flying off the shelves faster than in the UK. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Tue May 14, 2013 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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| hagiwaramai wrote: |
I see the theory to this deflation business, but has any economist every shown a real-life example of it being a bad thing? If I can wait and don't feel the need to buy something surely by definition it's not worth that much in the first place. If I want to buy a house to move out of my small flat I'm not going to wait forever because I don't want to live in my small flat until I die, so it doesn't matter even if there is deflation because soon enough I will bite the bullet and buy it even if prices are very slowly going down. I'm not going to starve myself either so I'm going to buy food pretty sharpish irrespective of the prices, I even don't want to wait too long to hear some new album either so I'm going to pick it up soon enough, so I don't see why it would be a problem for actually necessary goods.
On the other hand if I don't feel the need to buy something, because the demotivational force of deflation is so strong, then surely it was hardly worth buying in the first place. It might not be good for the people who thrive on inflation but for the ordinary man in the street, how does he suffer practically?
For all the talk of Japan being in a deflationary depression the last decade or so the people seem happier and things seem to be flying off the shelves faster than in the UK. |
I am not going to pretend to know all the answers here, as I think economics is a lot of guessing, and just being good at it. It is also hard to apply the same laws unto vastly different systems.
Anyhow, with deflation, it seems to affect property, and it's weird in Japan, as your house loses value every year for the most part. Which makes purchasing one less appealing, which may hurt homeownership in Japan.
As for comparing it to the UK. I have family that lived their from 1975 to 2005, and also in Japan, have met tons of expats. It's amazing, Brits seem the least inclined to want to return home. I feel that the UK has some serious fundamental economic problems, and really hasn't been able to deal with them for decades now. While in the US, those same employment problems are more like these past 10 years kinda problem.
I think deflation also inhibits growth, which is the key as well. Japan receives very little outside investment, as the returns never seem to come. I have even heard of some East Asian mutual fund managers saying they don't even bother investing in Japan. Even with the Tokyo Stock Exchange blowing up.
I dunno, though the cheaper yen will help, it won't fix the deeper problems. Like crazy debt and spending problems of the govt. |
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kah5217
Joined: 29 Sep 2012
Posts: 270
Location: Ibaraki
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| Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 11:27 am Post subject: |
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It hurts the average poor expat, too. Hamburgers aren't 100 yen anymore.
But seriously, this is going to hurt Abe's plans for billions of new JETs, since the smart ones who think of the long run will be deterred by the exchange rate and he'll get the anime crazy types instead. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Who cares about expats? They and JETs don't drive the economy. Besides the JET program was never meant to teach English it was cultural exchange. So top level people aren't necessary. |
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teacher4life
Joined: 22 Apr 2012
Posts: 121
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| Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 1:32 pm Post subject: |
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What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? Unfortunately for Japan, it will lead to:
1) more expensive oil imports
2) accusations of unfair policy from rivals in Asia (S Korea, China, Singapore, Taiwan) and very likely substantial tariffs and other restrictions on Japanese goods.
3) #2 will lead to increased dependence on the USA to buy Japanese exports and of course a closer military allaince with the USA too.
Japan is acting as if it were still 1990 and the rest of Asia was still reliant on Japan. That is NOT the case any longer. This will end very badly for Japan. |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 12:28 am Post subject: |
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| teacher4life wrote: |
| What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? |
Bumper profits for Toyota, and the first annual profit of any kind at Sony in five years. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:02 am Post subject: |
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| teacher4life wrote: |
What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? Unfortunately for Japan, it will lead to:
1) more expensive oil imports
2) accusations of unfair policy from rivals in Asia (S Korea, China, Singapore, Taiwan) and very likely substantial tariffs and other restrictions on Japanese goods.
3) #2 will lead to increased dependence on the USA to buy Japanese exports and of course a closer military allaince with the USA too.
Japan is acting as if it were still 1990 and the rest of Asia was still reliant on Japan. That is NOT the case any longer. This will end very badly for Japan. |
1, yes def so. Japan was retarded with their nuclear energy, and now they are paying the price for it. Too bad, as that was what was keeping them in the black.
2, true, but they do it too each other. On all kinds of levels. For instance Japan's airlines are not to refuel in Korea, as they made some BS law against some sort of ingredient or mixture that on Korea uses. Also look at foreign car sales in both places. non existent
Japan doesn't have a plan, and doesn't know how to move on. Korea is now pre 1997 Japan.
What I was hoping for, was that this QE would allow the Japanese companies enough time to restructure and refit. ie update their ancient factories. The cut back on govt spending, and allow the pop to deflate, and become some sort of big Singapore. Or even use Taiwan's kinda zany economic model. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:04 am Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| teacher4life wrote: |
| What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? |
Bumper profits for Toyota, and the first annual profit of any kind at Sony in five years. |
It is great for Toyota and the car companies. Sony too, but it won't fix the economy. WAY too many fundamental problems.
They should make a Hong Kong in Japan. Set aside a decent sized area with port access to be a low tax business zone, and allow it to have lax laws in general. See if they can get some investments coming in. |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:32 am Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Pitarou wrote: |
| teacher4life wrote: |
| What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? |
Bumper profits for Toyota, and the first annual profit of any kind at Sony in five years. |
It is great for Toyota and the car companies. Sony too, but it won't fix the economy. WAY too many fundamental problems.
They should make a Hong Kong in Japan. Set aside a decent sized area with port access to be a low tax business zone, and allow it to have lax laws in general. See if they can get some investments coming in. |
Huh?
I'm not saying that the idea is crazy, but the reasons you give certainly are. This is Japan, not Vietnam. It already has more capital and expertise than it knows what to do with. |
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kah5217
Joined: 29 Sep 2012
Posts: 270
Location: Ibaraki
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| Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 8:36 am Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Who cares about expats? They and JETs don't drive the economy. Besides the JET program was never meant to teach English it was cultural exchange. So top level people aren't necessary. |
Well obviously a good number of people on this board, since English education is the main reason we're here. As for cultural exchange, think about it- the "do anything to get to Japan" types are usually the ones who don't give two cents about their own culture. I'll admit I'm like that, I really don't follow a lot of American traditions. I've been showing the kids some state-based ones but nothing I personally observe. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Pitarou wrote: |
| teacher4life wrote: |
| What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? |
Bumper profits for Toyota, and the first annual profit of any kind at Sony in five years. |
It is great for Toyota and the car companies. Sony too, but it won't fix the economy. WAY too many fundamental problems.
They should make a Hong Kong in Japan. Set aside a decent sized area with port access to be a low tax business zone, and allow it to have lax laws in general. See if they can get some investments coming in. |
Huh?
I'm not saying that the idea is crazy, but the reasons you give certainly are. This is Japan, not Vietnam. It already has more capital and expertise than it knows what to do with. |
Japan does have tons of expertise. They lack innovation. Whichis telling in how the eelectronic companies are doing so poorly.
Also a lot of Japanese capital is tied up in bonds and over sea stocks. So yes japan does need capital as well |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 9:23 pm Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Pitarou wrote: |
| teacher4life wrote: |
| What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? |
Bumper profits for Toyota, and the first annual profit of any kind at Sony in five years. |
It is great for Toyota and the car companies. Sony too, but it won't fix the economy. WAY too many fundamental problems.
They should make a Hong Kong in Japan. Set aside a decent sized area with port access to be a low tax business zone, and allow it to have lax laws in general. See if they can get some investments coming in. |
Huh?
I'm not saying that the idea is crazy, but the reasons you give certainly are. This is Japan, not Vietnam. It already has more capital and expertise than it knows what to do with. |
Japan does have tons of expertise. They lack innovation. Whichis telling in how the eelectronic companies are doing so poorly.
Also a lot of Japanese capital is tied up in bonds and over sea stocks. So yes japan does need capital as well |
When an economist says, "capital", he doesn't mean money tied up in overseas accounts. He means investments in the means of production: factories, computers, worker's skills, and so on.
Japan's economy is notable for being unusually capital intensive: lots of capital, but little profits to show for it. Lack of capital is not what's holding Japan back.
You've also raised the issue of innovation and, yes, it is often claimed that Japanese firms are poor innovators. But you haven't explained how a Special Economic Zone would fix that. Maybe you think that attracting innovative foreign competitors would help? And perhaps it would. But not if you bottle them up in a Special Economic Zone!
Special Economic Zones are an instrument that help poor countries to attract foreign capital to their cheap labour without having to restructure the rest of their economy. I suggest that any solution to Japan's economic woes that doesn't involve restructuring is little more than window dressing. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 2:25 am Post subject: |
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| kah5217 wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Who cares about expats? They and JETs don't drive the economy. Besides the JET program was never meant to teach English it was cultural exchange. So top level people aren't necessary. |
Well obviously a good number of people on this board, since English education is the main reason we're here. As for cultural exchange, think about it- the "do anything to get to Japan" types are usually the ones who don't give two cents about their own culture. I'll admit I'm like that, I really don't follow a lot of American traditions. I've been showing the kids some state-based ones but nothing I personally observe. |
I hear ya, but still economically, we are pretty much negligible.
If they want good teachers, make a career path, not some perma-entry level job. That would attract people, more than a strong currency. |
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