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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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 Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 2:31 am Post subject: |
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[quote="Pitarou"][quote="rxk22"][quote="Pitarou"][quote="rxk22"]
| Pitarou wrote: |
| teacher4life wrote: |
| What will a cheaper yen REALLY lead to? |
Japan's economy is notable for being unusually capital intensive: lots of capital, but little profits to show for it. Lack of capital is not what's holding Japan back.
You've also raised the issue of innovation and, yes, it is often claimed that Japanese firms are poor innovators. But you haven't explained how a Special Economic Zone would fix that. Maybe you think that attracting innovative foreign competitors would help? And perhaps it would. But not if you bottle them up in a Special Economic Zone!
Special Economic Zones are an instrument that help poor countries to attract foreign capital to their cheap labour without having to restructure the rest of their economy. I suggest that any solution to Japan's economic woes that doesn't involve restructuring is little more than window dressing. |
Ok, I should have clarified, as in cash and not physical capital.
What would a special economic zone do? It would be a HK into Japan? Japan is notorious for being nigh on impossible to do business in. If you had an area that didn't have all the govt meddling, and buddy buddy system goign on, then you might attract foreign companies to come in and invest. Much like HK, this SEZ would have people who could deal with both parties, and get deals done.
Either that or get Japan to stop being so insane business law wise
How else can Japan attract talent? They barely attract much as it stands now.
Though, I think destroying the stupid OT 残業 system would do wonders. As working harder not smarter is not a boon when you no longer are a manufacturing economy. Getting people to go home, have lives, and be creative would do wonders. Would also prolly make a few kids too.
What would you suggest to fix Japan? |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 4:06 am Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| What would you suggest to fix Japan? |
Q: How many psychotherapists does it take to change a lightbulb?
A: One, but the lightbulb must want to change first.
You can't just "fix" Japan. Japan is long overdo a period of reform. And I don't just mean structural economic reform: the political and social structures that are tied into the economic structures would have to change, too. But change hurts, and the longer it gets put off the more painful it becomes. Japan does not see the need to subject itself to that kind of pain. If I had the levers of power in my hands right now, and if I used them to push Japan into reform, Japan would simply push back.
So what would I do to fix Japan? I'd bide my time until Japan decides it needs fixing. I just hope that happens before Japan slides back into fascism. |
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Black_Beer_Man
Joined: 26 Mar 2013
Posts: 453
Location: Yokohama
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| Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 9:45 am Post subject: |
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| One thing that's going to affect everybody is higher food prices. Japan imports roughly half of the food it consumes, so higher food prices is almost inevitable. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 11:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| What would you suggest to fix Japan? |
Q: How many psychotherapists does it take to change a lightbulb?
A: One, but the lightbulb must want to change first.
You can't just "fix" Japan. Japan is long overdo a period of reform. And I don't just mean structural economic reform: the political and social structures that are tied into the economic structures would have to change, too. But change hurts, and the longer it gets put off the more painful it becomes. Japan does not see the need to subject itself to that kind of pain. If I had the levers of power in my hands right now, and if I used them to push Japan into reform, Japan would simply push back.
So what would I do to fix Japan? I'd bide my time until Japan decides it needs fixing. I just hope that happens before Japan slides back into fascism. |
Not sure if you were talking down to me, or if you were copping out of answering my question.... |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Black_Beer_Man wrote: |
| One thing that's going to affect everybody is higher food prices. Japan imports roughly half of the food it consumes, so higher food prices is almost inevitable. |
I read that it is closer to 60% of all food is imported. Esp when you get away from rice and certain veggies/fruits, it's almost all foreign. Same with milk and wheat, a HUGE amount of that is imported. Haven't seen the numbers in while but milk is def 60% and wheat is prolly much higher.
At Chiba Tower, they have a chart, with Ramen being the most imported food type. 94% of it's contents are imported! |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 12:56 am Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Not sure if you were talking down to me, or if you were copping out of answering my question.... |
I was killing a little time, and flexing a few mental muscles. I didn't intend to belittle you: sorry if you felt that way. But if you're going to call my answer a cop-out, then I'm going to call the question ("well what would you do?") a cheap rhetorical trick designed to distract attention from the shakiness of your original HK proposal.
If we focus on foreign investment, the usual policy instruments in developed economies are: temporary exemptions from laws, subsidies, tax breaks, support for chambers of commerce, international promotion drives, and changes to laws that unfairly favour local businesses. My favourite example is Luxembourg: they've attracted huge amounts of Chinese investment simply by allowing companies to submit their paperwork in English.
Your proposal does not target foreign investors; it targets a patch of land near a port. You're really just creating an internal tax haven, and the ones best placed to take advantage of that are the big Japanese companies who already pay high tax bills. They'd bid up the price of the land, and squeeze out foreign entrepreneurs.
Does that answer your question? |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 1:45 am Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Not sure if you were talking down to me, or if you were copping out of answering my question.... |
I was killing a little time, and flexing a few mental muscles. I didn't intend to belittle you: sorry if you felt that way. But if you're going to call my answer a cop-out, then I'm going to call the question ("well what would you do?") a cheap rhetorical trick designed to distract attention from the shakiness of your original HK proposal.
If we focus on foreign investment, the usual policy instruments in developed economies are: temporary exemptions from laws, subsidies, tax breaks, support for chambers of commerce, international promotion drives, and changes to laws that unfairly favour local businesses. My favourite example is Luxembourg: they've attracted huge amounts of Chinese investment simply by allowing companies to submit their paperwork in English.
Your proposal does not target foreign investors; it targets a patch of land near a port. You're really just creating an internal tax haven, and the ones best placed to take advantage of that are the big Japanese companies who already pay high tax bills. They'd bid up the price of the land, and squeeze out foreign entrepreneurs.
Does that answer your question? |
Ok, no offense taken.
I said that, as it's easy to poke holes, harder to make actual suggestions.
I like the HK idea, as it would be a conduit into Japan. Much like HK is responsible for much of China's growth. Japan is weird, and closed off, so there needs to be a way to get foreign money there.
Also the crazy high corp tax needs to be rethought. As PG rolled out on that, and relocated to Singapore. You can't have massive taxes and expect companies to come to Japan. So if they had a HQ in the HK area, they might still keep the jobs and some industries there. Despite the high rents. |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 2:26 am Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Much like HK is responsible for much of China's growth. |
Where did you get that idea from? I've certainly never heard that claim from an orthodox economist. I'm sure Chinese policy makers find it convenient to have a Hong Kong in their back pocket, but it's a huge stretch to claim that China's growth is dependent on it. (If anything, it's the other way round.) |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 2:40 am Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Much like HK is responsible for much of China's growth. |
Where did you get that idea from? I've certainly never heard that claim from an orthodox economist. I'm sure Chinese policy makers find it convenient to have a Hong Kong in their back pocket, but it's a huge stretch to claim that China's growth is dependent on it. (If anything, it's the other way round.) |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1O0tuyVDMtI a huge amount on HK. I just listened to it the other day. Is really fascinating. Seems as though a huge amount of Chinese IPOs really come through HK. Was 70% for a while IIRC.
HK was the way into China for many corps, as the video clearly states. As those corporations would have had a very hard time going straight into China. Which is why HK was so amazing, it had talent, and the ability to gather capital to invest into China. Yes China could have done it alone, but HK def sped things up. Esp with the factories there pre 1991. As they created skilled labor.
it is hard to say how much HK did for China, as there aren't any real hard numbers. But HK was doing great without China, and would prolly continue to do so without China. It is a small city, and can sustain it's self on finance and services alone. Unlike Japan. |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 6:35 am Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Much like HK is responsible for much of China's growth. |
Where did you get that idea from? |
Seems as though a huge amount of Chinese IPOs really come through HK ... it had talent, and the ability to gather capital to invest into China. |
So ... would Tokyo do? |
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Libertas-MMXIII
Joined: 08 May 2013
Posts: 22
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| Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 7:05 am Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Much like HK is responsible for much of China's growth. |
Where did you get that idea from? I've certainly never heard that claim from an orthodox economist. I'm sure Chinese policy makers find it convenient to have a Hong Kong in their back pocket, but it's a huge stretch to claim that China's growth is dependent on it. (If anything, it's the other way round.) |
God forbid you ever lose Mao's little red book from your back pocket, commie. |
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