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Rooster.
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 247
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 Posted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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Japan's economy seems to be all over the place.
Can someone tell me what the outlook for the yen (against the dollar) is for the next three to six months? Will the yen get stronger, weaker, or stay roughly the same (98 yen to the dollar) |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 2:30 am Post subject: |
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| Rooster. wrote: |
Japan's economy seems to be all over the place.
Can someone tell me what the outlook for the yen (against the dollar) is for the next three to six months? Will the yen get stronger, weaker, or stay roughly the same (98 yen to the dollar) |
As someone with a degree in Economics from a highly respected institution, I can say the following with some authority: I don't know.
Over a 3-6 month time scale, the dominant effect will be short-term fluctuations that are impossible to predict with anything like the reliability necessary to answer your question.
In the longer term Japan's in a mess but, without privileged insider knowledge, it's impossible top say exactly when the fly's going to hit the windscreen. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 4:13 am Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| Rooster. wrote: |
Japan's economy seems to be all over the place.
Can someone tell me what the outlook for the yen (against the dollar) is for the next three to six months? Will the yen get stronger, weaker, or stay roughly the same (98 yen to the dollar) |
As someone with a degree in Economics from a highly respected institution, I can say the following with some authority: I don't know.
Over a 3-6 month time scale, the dominant effect will be short-term fluctuations that are impossible to predict with anything like the reliability necessary to answer your question.
In the longer term Japan's in a mess but, without privileged insider knowledge, it's impossible top say exactly when the fly's going to hit the windscreen. |
Oh yeah, tons of people are wrong about the yen and where it is now. i honestly thought it would go north of 100 to the dollar by now. But it is going the other way now.
yeah, Japan seems like it has too many systemic problems. Also, even companies like Toyota are behind, or have been behind in paying their part of 年金。Kinda scary imho |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Also, even companies like Toyota are behind, or have been behind in paying their part of 年金。Kinda scary imho |
I didn't know that....
One way or another, anybody with savings denominated in Yen is going to see heavy losses.
Another thing that worries me, personally, is that my ALT job is funded from central government as part of a special programme. They keep me on permanent revolving one-year contract, so I'm easy to get rid of. When the fly his the windscreen, and spending is finally reined in, dispensable luxuries like me will be the first to go.
I've told my wife that we're going to have to be ready to leave Japan in the next year or two. |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| I've told my wife that we're going to have to be ready to leave Japan in the next year or two. |
I have a good job that I would be very reluctant to leave, but the talk of exchange and capital controls has prompted me to explore alternative career plans.
I'm surprised how many people are oblivious to what is coming down the pipeline. I'm afraid it's going to get pretty bad. |
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Rooster.
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 247
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| Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| Rooster. wrote: |
Japan's economy seems to be all over the place.
Can someone tell me what the outlook for the yen (against the dollar) is for the next three to six months? Will the yen get stronger, weaker, or stay roughly the same (98 yen to the dollar) |
As someone with a degree in Economics from a highly respected institution, I can say the following with some authority: I don't know.
Over a 3-6 month time scale, the dominant effect will be short-term fluctuations that are impossible to predict with anything like the reliability necessary to answer your question.
In the longer term Japan's in a mess but, without privileged insider knowledge, it's impossible top say exactly when the fly's going to hit the windscreen. |
Thanks for the answer. I guess that I will just have to wait and see what happens like most people. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
| Also, even companies like Toyota are behind, or have been behind in paying their part of 年金。Kinda scary imho |
I didn't know that....
One way or another, anybody with savings denominated in Yen is going to see heavy losses.
Another thing that worries me, personally, is that my ALT job is funded from central government as part of a special programme. They keep me on permanent revolving one-year contract, so I'm easy to get rid of. When the fly his the windscreen, and spending is finally reined in, dispensable luxuries like me will be the first to go.
I've told my wife that we're going to have to be ready to leave Japan in the next year or two. |
Yeah man, it's realluy bad http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOaMUhFk5OYw $235Billion(!) or so underfunded, the pension system is. Really scary, as it will def hit the fan some time soon.
And yes, ALTS are icing on the cake, that can be cut without batting an eye. Most don't vote either, so who cares!
Yeah, my wife was a bit mad about leaving, but since I have been keeping her up on this, she understands why. People's savings are going to be inflated away, and 年金, if you believe you at under 40 will receive it, you are an idealist at best. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
I have a good job that I would be very reluctant to leave, but the talk of exchange and capital controls has prompted me to explore alternative career plans.
I'm surprised how many people are oblivious to what is coming down the pipeline. I'm afraid it's going to get pretty bad. |
Yeah, Japan is so insular, and tight lipped, that you really have to dig to find this stuff out. That said, it def is coming, the only question is when, and how bad? If I were Japanese, I would take most of my savings and all my stock and make sure that they were in $ and in funds that were mostly outside of Japan. |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 12:46 am Post subject: |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
| I'm surprised how many people are oblivious to what is coming down the pipeline. I'm afraid it's going to get pretty bad. |
There's a famous psychological study that describes this phenomenon quite neatly. I can't find the original study, but I did find this summary:
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consider a narrow river valley below a high dam, such that if the dam burst, the resulting flood of water would drown people for a considerable distance downstream. When attitude pollsters ask people downstream of the dam how concerned they are about the dam's bursting, it's not surprising that fear of a dam burst is lowest far downstream, and increases among residents increasingly close to the dam. Surprisingly, though, after you get just a few miles below the dam, where fear of the dam's breaking is found to be highest, concern then falls off to zero as you approach closer to the dam! That is, the people living immediately under the dam, the ones most certain to be drowned in a dam burst, profess unconcern. That's because of psychological denial: the only way of preserving one's sanity while looking up every day at the dam is to deny the possibility that it could burst.
-- Collapse by Jared Diamond |
I imagine that, if I pressed a typical Japanese person on this issue, he'd say:
| Typical oyaji wrote: |
People have been saying 'This can't go on.' for twenty years, and look where it got them. They lost big bucks betting against Nippon. What makes you think it's different this time?
Anyway, what do you expect me to do about it? Leave my home, my career and my family? Go to a country where I can't speak the language? I'm better off staying here, regardless of what happens. If we go down, we all go down together. |
We English teachers are not in the same position. We have the option of leaving. That gives us the psychological breathing space to weigh up our options more objectively.
I also think the alarm bells are being muffled by a tame media, who appear to be under standing orders to "maintain social harmony".
Still, I reckon a lot of Japanese people are buying gold now. And I understand that the big Japanese companies with cash to spare have stopped investing in Japan. They're buying all the productive foreign assets they can get their hands on, and they're sending their brightest and best overseas to take MBAs so they can manage those assets. |
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hagiwaramai
Joined: 24 May 2010
Posts: 119
Location: Marines Stadium
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| Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 1:31 am Post subject: |
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| One thing I wonder about is what will happen when the current aged population starts dying off? It's right now that is going to be the tightest time in terms of pension payments as the population is at it's highest and will decline from now on, and once the OAPs start dying it's going to be a very rapid decline year-on-year, and the pension payments will decline rapidly with them, alleviating some, but how much, of the burden? What do people think about that? |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 2:44 am Post subject: |
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| hagiwaramai wrote: |
| One thing I wonder about is what will happen when the current aged population starts dying off? It's right now that is going to be the tightest time in terms of pension payments as the population is at it's highest and will decline from now on, and once the OAPs start dying it's going to be a very rapid decline year-on-year, and the pension payments will decline rapidly with them, alleviating some, but how much, of the burden? What do people think about that? |
I wish.
There might be a brief respite between when the first baby boom dies off and the second baby boom starts retiring. I don't have precise enough data to say. But, ultimately, Japan's low birth rate and xenophobic immigration policies are predicted to keep Japan permanently grey.
You can see the statistics for yourself here. Scroll down to Figure 2.3 to see the population pyramids. The key statistics are:
1950
children 35%
working age adults 60%
retired 5%
2011
children 13%
working age adults 64%
retired 23%
2050 (forecast)
children 10%
working age adults 52%
retired 39%
There are two ways out of this: mass euthanasia and postponing retirement. If the government were to, say, incrementally raise the retirement age to 65 by 2023 or impose Battle Royale / Hunger Games style death-matches on the over 70s, that would buy it a little more time to balance its books. |
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mitsui
Joined: 10 Jun 2007
Posts: 1562
Location: Kawasaki
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| Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 4:44 am Post subject: |
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I learn Japanese at a church and the volunteer who helps is about 91.
He retired at 55 from the Asahi Shinbun. He has been retired as long as he has worked.
Now it is good that his diet is healthy and his life has been long but his health care is funded by people like me and my spouse.
The retirement age has to be raised since younger Japanese are having to foot the bill. If more women work, that would help.
Too many younger workers can`t get a full-time job, so they pay less in taxes.
Immigration is so low that it doesn`t have an effect.
I probably will leave next year. The writing is on the wall. It is amazing that so few people notice what is coming. It is like being on the Titanic. We have not hit an iceberg yet, but I don`t see how the ship will miss one. |
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kah5217
Joined: 29 Sep 2012
Posts: 270
Location: Ibaraki
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| Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 8:05 am Post subject: |
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| That's a great idea, but Japan isn't exactly set up for large scale female employment outside of things like teachers or nurses. Women in the offices are still expected to leave and pop out babies once they reach a certain age, and then stay home with those babies all day while the men work. |
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Solar Strength
Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 557
Location: Bangkok, Thailand
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| Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 9:02 am Post subject: |
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| There is a glass ceiling for women and gaijin in Japan. |
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Inflames
Joined: 02 Apr 2006
Posts: 486
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| Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2013 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Solar Strength wrote: |
| There is a glass ceiling for women and gaijin in Japan. |
I wouldn't necessarily say it's a glass ceiling as it's pretty obvious....
| Pitarou wrote: |
| And I understand that the big Japanese companies with cash to spare have stopped investing in Japan. They're buying all the productive foreign assets they can get their hands on, and they're sending their brightest and best overseas to take MBAs so they can manage those assets. |
Japanese companies have stopped investing in Japan for a few reasons. Japan is expensive and it's hard to fire people. Most markets are overseas so the companies are closer to their markets and currency risks are eliminated. |
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