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ebooktrial0001
Joined: 02 Jan 2014
Posts: 156
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 Posted: Sat May 09, 2015 4:04 pm Post subject: Can We Predict Trends in the ESL Industry in the Next 20 YRS |
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Hello Everyone,
I was just brainstorming how the industry may change in the next 20 years. I do not have the core data (hence making me sound unprepared); but, I was wondering your thoughts, and why this is:
1. The top paying jobs (mainly in the Middle East) have been phased out, because there is rising supply of labor and stagnating or decreased demand.
2. Lower paying jobs will continue to grow in number, especially in places like China, Thailand, etc.
3. The hotspots will be China and to some extent Thailand and Malaysia.
4. There will always be some firms that cut corners (i.e. through hiring Pakistani or Indian language teachers with accents that aren't quite correct, hiring white skinned but poorly trained teachers, etc.); but, there is still a place for great teachers.
5. Everyone still wants their child to learn English, especially with a trained teacher. But, the real question is still "Can I Afford It?". |
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caliph
Joined: 05 Jun 2006
Posts: 218
Location: Iceland
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| Posted: Sat May 09, 2015 4:31 pm Post subject: |
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1. yes
2. yes
3. no
4. yes
5. yes |
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suphanburi
Joined: 20 Mar 2014
Posts: 916
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| Posted: Sat May 09, 2015 10:27 pm Post subject: Re: Can We Predict Trends in the ESL Industry in the Next 20 |
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| ebooktrial0001 wrote: |
Hello Everyone,
I was just brainstorming how the industry may change in the next 20 years. I do not have the core data (hence making me sound unprepared); but, I was wondering your thoughts, and why this is:
1. The top paying jobs (mainly in the Middle East) have been phased out, because there is rising supply of labor and stagnating or decreased demand.
2. Lower paying jobs will continue to grow in number, especially in places like China, Thailand, etc.
3. The hotspots will be China and to some extent Thailand and Malaysia.
4. There will always be some firms that cut corners (i.e. through hiring Pakistani or Indian language teachers with accents that aren't quite correct, hiring white skinned but poorly trained teachers, etc.); but, there is still a place for great teachers.
5. Everyone still wants their child to learn English, especially with a trained teacher. But, the real question is still "Can I Afford It?". |
1) I suspect a combination of both.
2) Yes but....
There will always be low paying, entry level EFL jobs but the trend at that level is more and more toward finding "qualified teachers who speak English" from places like the Philippines or India rather than just "native speakers" pretending to teach English.
3) China will continue to be the new "wild west" of the east. With its massive population it will continue to easily absorb 50,000 new EFL teachers per year for the next decade then level off at a population of some 500,000 EFL teachers.
4) Yes but...
You also have to take into consideration that the number of conversations done "in English" is far less a case of speaking with "native speakers" and much more a case of NNS to NNS using English as the lingua franca. 3000 million+ speakers of English and only 500 million "native speakers" on the planet.
The emerging markets of India and China needing to communicate with each other or trading blocs like the AEC and EU will be far more important than the markets in the "English world" (stagnant and shrinking).
Additionally, if you consider the variety of International English(es) that abound....
then what would be a "native speaker" or "standard English"?
Whose standard should we follow? Perhaps "Indian" English with 500 million speakers is more "standard" than American or UK English (<250 million native speakers)
5) Trained teacher but ...
as generational changes occur... more and more these will tend to be "home grown" rather than imported and the "imported ones" will tend to be well qualified, well paid and good/effective teachers ( as judged through independent external evaluations rather than their own opinion of themselves).
Effective, trained and qualified teachers, even in places like China and Thailand, still earn what would be in the west "a decent wage" and remuneration package.
US$4000/month, 10-14 weeks of paid vacation time, flights home and back, full medical/dental, housing, family relocation assistance and free tuition for the kids is a nice package in places like Thailand and China.
*caveat: you need to be a fully qualified and experienced teacher.
It beats the hell out of working at an entry level EFL position for $1000/month with no benefits, living in a one-room apartment, living off street food and avoiding the doctor because you can't afford the visit to anything other than the "local" government facility.
Using Thailand as an example (China is too big and the numbers are not reliable):
- in 1996 there were 6 "international" schools. This year there are 166.
- in 1996 there were just about 6000 students enrolled in international schools (tuition fees equivalent to about $20k). This year there will be close to 200,000.
- There are 2000+ jobs in the market for qualified, western teachers with salary packages in the $3000-4000 range (plus benefits).
- The demand for qualified teachers still outstrips supply by a factor of 2. * Less qualified teachers are absorbed but at "local" rates. There is a clear cut glass ceiling.
As mentioned in your earlier thread.....
Figure out what you want to do (you do have some experience in the industry so you must have some idea beyond simply "better pay") then get the credentials that will be needed to get you there.
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ebooktrial0001
Joined: 02 Jan 2014
Posts: 156
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| Posted: Sun May 10, 2015 9:45 am Post subject: |
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Thanks. I do agree that I ask these questions partially because I want to know how I specifically can benefit.
But, being a former education researcher, I do want to say how fascinated I am by trends, etc. I love to be able to see the deeper picture, which you guys have helped me answer. |
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In the heat of the moment
Joined: 22 May 2015
Posts: 393
Location: Italy
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| Posted: Sat May 30, 2015 8:02 am Post subject: Re: Can We Predict Trends in the ESL Industry in the Next 20 |
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| ebooktrial0001 wrote: |
Hello Everyone,
I was just brainstorming how the industry may change in the next 20 years. I do not have the core data (hence making me sound unprepared); but, I was wondering your thoughts, and why this is:
1. The top paying jobs (mainly in the Middle East) have been phased out, because there is rising supply of labor and stagnating or decreased demand.
2. Lower paying jobs will continue to grow in number, especially in places like China, Thailand, etc.
3. The hotspots will be China and to some extent Thailand and Malaysia.
4. There will always be some firms that cut corners (i.e. through hiring Pakistani or Indian language teachers with accents that aren't quite correct, hiring white skinned but poorly trained teachers, etc.); but, there is still a place for great teachers.
5. Everyone still wants their child to learn English, especially with a trained teacher. But, the real question is still "Can I Afford It?". |
1. No, the ME is FAR from a mature EFL market.
2. Yes, and higher paying jobs will also increase in number, although 20 years is a bit too long to extrapolate current conditions.
3. Yes, although don't count on Russia not being added to them.
4. That's a given.
5. Nope. Once EFL markets mature the local teachers will politically be more acceptable than importing dodgy foreigners who spread malicious lies and STIs. |
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spiral78
Joined: 05 Apr 2004
Posts: 11534
Location: On a Short Leash
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| Posted: Sat May 30, 2015 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| 5. Everyone still wants their child to learn English, especially with a trained teacher. But, the real question is still "Can I Afford It?". |
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| 5. Nope. Once EFL markets mature the local teachers will politically be more acceptable than importing dodgy foreigners who spread malicious lies and STIs. |
I agree, though not sure in what way local teachers wouldn't be considered 'trained.' In most cases they are equally qualified - if not more - than native speakers. But definitely more and more local teachers will be taking over the task to a greater degree, as has happened in northern Europe. |
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KayuJati
Joined: 21 Feb 2010
Posts: 313
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| Posted: Sun May 31, 2015 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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Regarding #3, I cannot see Malaysia becoming a hotspot for expat English teachers. There are many Malaysians getting English-teaching credentials and taking up the TESL spots. The school that I was at for 12 years (but not teaching English) was hiring Malay TESL teachers to teach Malay students mostly. It didn't matter to the school that those teachers could barely hold a conversation with me in English. The credentials are what matter!
Anyone wanting to live and teach long-term in Malaysia should find an up-and-coming industry in the west that has not yet caught on in Malaysia, and learn to teach that subject, in English and in Malay. That would get you a long-term position. Robotics anyone? (And turning that into a Malay verb memrobotikkan.) |
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In the heat of the moment
Joined: 22 May 2015
Posts: 393
Location: Italy
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| Posted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:58 pm Post subject: |
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| spiral78 wrote: |
| Quote: |
| 5. Everyone still wants their child to learn English, especially with a trained teacher. But, the real question is still "Can I Afford It?". |
| Quote: |
| 5. Nope. Once EFL markets mature the local teachers will politically be more acceptable than importing dodgy foreigners who spread malicious lies and STIs. |
I agree, though not sure in what way local teachers wouldn't be considered 'trained.' In most cases they are equally qualified - if not more - than native speakers. But definitely more and more local teachers will be taking over the task to a greater degree, as has happened in northern Europe. |
Yeah, I misread/interpreted that. I didn't mean to take anything away from the local teachers' qualifications or quality, although most countries seem to go through the 'Import the talent' stage before their own shines sufficiently to be taken more seriously than native speakers. |
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scot47
Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Posts: 15343
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| Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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"There will always be low paying, entry level EFL jobs "
I am not sure about that. Other countries may well go the way of India and Malaysia where local teachers of English long ago replaced expatriate EFLers. That has certainly happened in all of Anglophone Africa. In the decade after independence there were huge numbers of British teachers in Africa. I was one of them, recruited through the ODA.
Once localisation of the labour force starts to take off, you can forget about those "entry-level posts". You will not even get low pay. The jobs will be reserved for locals. |
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philyb
Joined: 06 Sep 2009
Posts: 5
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| Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 8:31 am Post subject: |
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| I think the well paying ME jobs will remain fairly the same but maybe require even more credentials, they're already inaccessible to a lot of EFL teachers who spend their time with no qualifications in Asia. |
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In the heat of the moment
Joined: 22 May 2015
Posts: 393
Location: Italy
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| Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:45 am Post subject: |
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| philyb wrote: |
| I think the well paying ME jobs will remain fairly the same but maybe require even more credentials, they're already inaccessible to a lot of EFL teachers who spend their time with no qualifications in Asia. |
I imagine there'll be plenty of low-paying jobs that just require Degree + CELTA + Criminal/Health Check for the foreseeable future, but I hear the jobs which require none of those are becoming thin on the ground.
I appreciate the debt you have to take on for completing a degree in the UK now is substantial, and then you need to find circa £2k to fund a CELTA. But, the CELTA is paid in advance and the degree isn't, plus the availability of degrees now is such that even if not academically-minded, you can still complete three years of getting pissed and attending a few lectures, and end up with the certificate at the end. |
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