Job Discussion Forums

[MO39]

I just read a short article in the New York Times on-line about a huge pro-Lopez Obrador demonstration that's takng place in the Zocalo in Mexico City. Did anyone reading this go to the demonstration or know anyone who was there? Does it feel as though this unrest could destabilize the country, or at least the capital? Apparently, it has already had a negative effect on the Mexican Bolsa.

[moonraven]

The country is unstable--financially and now socially--due to the current government of Fox. The desafuero of AMLO is politically motivated--there is nothing to the charge--because he's head and shoulders above every other presidential candidate for 2006.

I didn't think that any party in power could be worse than the PRI, but these right wing PAN bible beaters are the worst case scenario.

Which means the worst is already happening...?

If Mexico doesn't decide to stop kissing Bush's feet, give up internecine warfare and rejoin Latin America, it is doomed.

Simple as that.

[Guy Courchesne]

I just listened to AMLO's speech. Quite empassioned. Enough that my wife says she'll vote PRD now, AMLO or not. I'm still not convinced. But, one thing is certain. There will be quite a bit of turmoil from today on to the presidential elections. AMLO has a lot of support...loud support.

[moonraven]

This whole rotten deal is going to backfire on the PAN--and its henchmen of the PRI.

Problem is, millions of folks will suffer in the process. I am mad as hell about the whole mess.

[Guy Courchesne]

This should probably further polarize Mexico. AMLO appeals to the left wing. PAN is desperately trying to play this by saying that no one is above the law. AMLO broke the law by ignoring a court order and building a road over contested expropriated property. Playing that on the people by saying it was a road to a hospital doesn't change the fact that he ignored a court order. That's why I'm not convinced that AMLO is nothing more than a populist that will say and do just about anything on his way up to power. Not saying PAN or PRI is any better...guess that's Mexican politics.

[moonraven]

Uh--just a minute, Guy. In THREE court-ordered survey visits they couldn't even come up with the boundaries of the property in question. So how could ANYONE have violated a court order under those circumstances?

No--this was a cooked up deal to knock the leader of the race out of the running.

Mexico's "transition" to democracy--where at least in theory the will of the people is the governing factor--has just been shoved back to about 1932.

[Guy Courchesne]

Oh, I don't doubt that things are being cooked up from every side of the political spectrum. Nobody is straight in Mexican politics. I've seen what even PRD is capable of during the Guerrero elections. AMLO could have taken the high road by simply waiting out the case and not defying the courts. At the very least, he would be guilty of been politically naive. At worst, he gambled on a populist wave and may well lose because of it.

[moonraven]

One also needs to be aware of the role of the current US government in this caper.

Anything that spokespeople for the State Dept. say must be interpreted to mean exactly the opposite in regard to their involvement in Latin America.

Examples: "We do not interfere with the internal functioning of other countries" (Translation: We are going to keep giving millions and millions of dollars to overthrow the government of Hugo Ch�vez.)

"We have no opinion whatsoever about a leftist government in Mexico. That's up to Mexican voters to decide." (Translation: If AMLO is elected, we will use the same strategies to overthrow his government that we have been using against the government of Hugo Ch�vez.)

They have escalated sticking their hands in Mexico's operations, as they have had no success getting at Venezuela's oil--which Ch�vez may well decide not to continue providing to them--and Mexico's is closer, and the US need is growing all the time.

[MO39]

Dear Guy and Moonraven,

Thanks for your insightful dialogue. How disappointing (but not unexpected if one knows anything about the history of Mexican politics) that things have taken such a turn backwards. On a very personal level, my immediate future, would you recommend against moving to Mexico in the next couple of months, as I've been planning to do? I have lived and worked in Mexico before (in 1966, 1971, 1978-80, last summer) and have spent many vacations there, so I wouldn't exactly be a novice. Your advice would be greatly appreciated.

Marsha

[Guy Courchesne]

Well, it's done. Stipped of immunity. I'm not sure if AMLO still has a chance now. It's up to a court to try him.

My wife just called this 'an elegant coup d'etat'.

[moonraven]

I would be the last person to tell you what to do with a fairly major life decision.

What I can say is that Mexico is becoming increasingly unstable. That, coupled with the historical pattern of severe financial crises arriving at the end of every sexenio except that of Zedillo, makes things look fairly dicey for 2006.

If I am really lucky, I will "retire" just as the next Mexican president enters office--which means I could end up benefiting from the sorry mess that's being created at locomotive speed. Sad thought.

[Guy Courchesne]

[moonraven]

Guy--What Mexico are you living in?

Fact: Mexico's PIB has not even reached a growth of 1% in the four years of Foxism. Less than 1% means zero. Compare that with other countries in Latin America (Venezuela had 18% last year alone, and Wall Street predicts at least 6% growth per year over the next several years. Argentina has almost pulled out of a severe crisis--9% growth last year.

Fact: More than 500,000 jobs have been lost in those same 4 years. Proportionate by population to the number lost under Bush in the US.

Fact: 60% of Mexico's active workforce is concentrated in the "informal" sector--which pays no taxes.

In whose pockets are all the windfall petroleum profits? In Venezuela they have gone for schools, roads, railroads, literacy programs, cooperatives, new housing, food markets, banks for women, etc. In Mexico Fox's family and his wife's family have gone from bankruptcy to being multi-millionaires....

I don't know what kind of propaganda you read (I asume you must be listening to Fox, who lives in Wonderland--not Mexico) You have been dramatically and perversely misinformed.

[Guy Courchesne]

Well, I said stable, not a rip roaring economy. I don't put any stock into propaganda, or much of what the papers say either. I'm going with my gut on this one, and what I've seen day to day in Mexico City.

The number of people in the informal economy doesn't seem any different than 4 years ago. I don't see how anyone could get numbers on that. I know agriculture has suffered, but that has a lot to do with the dropping of a slew of tariffs last year, and probably has driven many more people up north for work, I would think.

I would like to point to a large number of public works projects in Mexico City as a sign of prosperity, but then I'm already questioning where AMLO gets the coin for that.

I would hope that Mexico's state run oil economy would go towards Mexican society. If it isn't, I don't suspect that there is anything new about that at all.

I'm not trying to paint too rosy a picture, but it doesn't feel at all like it's getting worse. I'll base my views on friends, family, and associates in the business world...regular middle class types.

[delacosta]

I feel queasy and a bit sick to my stomach. Yes we are in the midst of an institutional and very slimy cou'd'estat (sp?). Here in Oaxaca there is no news on the television or radio of what's going on. As in any coup the media must be controlled. The only way for something like this to be successful is to assume complete apathy/ignorance (perhaps fear?) from the general public.
Yes Guy, parts of the middle class have done ok under Fox, just as they've done well under all of the recent presidents. They have done so despite the government in charge, usually because of sacrifice, dedication and willingness to work their ***** off. Are they likely to risk the welfare of their families and personal comfort level by taking to the streets? Not likely. However there are millions of others who have nothing to lose, and hopefully they will.
Please, repeating Fox's line about this being an example of the new respect for justice and the law in Mexico, come on man get real! Fobaproa? Pemexgate? Massive crimes against the Mexican public-untouchable. If these thugs somehow succeed with this and the gangster Madrazo gets into power Mexico will be back in the dark ages. And yes, life will go on, and people as always will work hard, and struggle, and some will do ok, and families will love each other and laugh around the dinner table with whatever little they have...but anyone with half a smidgen of awareness, consciousness, whatever you call it...knows that what is happening is not right._________________