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The Chinese Protests
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Cshannon



Joined: 10 Dec 2004
Posts: 114

PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2005 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
You are comparing Japan in strength to China?


I guess it was foolish of me to even bother with a comparison, but still yes I believe that just having a "big" army doesn`t make China so powerful. Quality vs. quantity. I heard some sarcastic remark from a friend once that American soldiers wouldn`t even have enough bullets to kill every soldier in the Chinese army, but still let`s face it -- despite having a huge standing army, China`s conventional military is quite primitive (they still use old Soviet-bought weapons from the 70s, 60s and even 50s).
Mind you Japan doesn`t have much of a standing army at this exact moment, but if it ever needed and/or had time to re-arm itself, its military would certainly outclass China`s in every respect (and actually does even now if you look at submarines etc.). True, China has a big navy, but it is obsolete; I doubt China could land a single soldier on Japanese soil. I don`t know about Japan invading China as such, but I think Japan could repel an invasion successfully.
Japan has the most advanced technology on the planet, and one of the most sophisticated levels of high-tech industry (in addition to being a far wealthier nation than China). I stick by my assertion that China wouldn`t stand a chance (nukes aside) against Japan in a conventional war, provided Japan had a bit of time in advance to re-arm itself first (and this is becoming a real possibility - Koizumi has had plans to do this for awhile).
As for North Korea - yes it hates Japan, but that`s about all. Still, China and NK don`t have a particularly friendly relationship either. And any possible nuclear threats aside, NK poses no real threat to Japan across the water. NK is small potatoes at the end of the day: just one of the poorest, cruelest and most internationally despised countries around. America would pounce the second they tried anything (Bush would love it).

Funny we`re discussing all this, because such a war is practically impossible. Oh well...
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guest of Japan



Joined: 28 Feb 2003
Posts: 1601
Location: Japan

PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just did a quick web search on comparative military statistics and have confirmed my belief that China is absolutely no position to take on Japan. Military spending for both nations has been very comparable over the last 20 years. China has spent a little more. Chinese manpower is exponentially greater, but that is useless unless China could actually somehow manage to land them on Japan. Japan is certainly not full hardy enough to try to invade China.

Also people should not forget that Japan is vital to American interests and is fully committed to coming to Japan's aid in case of attack.

All this brings me back to my first point that Japan should be willing to exercise its economic muscle. My point was not in creating a war,but in establishing a precedent for which China can use to guage future actions.
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Synne



Joined: 06 Apr 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Tohoku

PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2005 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cshannon wrote:
China`s conventional military is quite primitive (they still use old Soviet-bought weapons from the 70s, 60s and even 50s).


...and I quote from Chinas most recent air exhibit.

Quote:
As of this show, one is able to count about 16 new combat aircraft programs and seven training aircraft programs in China. These include: the Sukhoi Su-30MKK; Su-30MKK2; Sukhoi/Shenyang J-11; Shenyang J-8H; Shenyang XXJ; Chengdu J-10; Chengdu FC-1; Chengdu J-7G; Chengdu XXJ; Xian JH-7A; Xian H-6; Hongdu Q-5; Guizhou LCS-16; CHRDI WZ-10; WZ-11; and the Harbin WZ-9. In addition, China may be developing an advanced long-range strike bomber and has the Chengdu J-7MF lightweight fighter program in reserve. Severn training aircraft in production or development include: the Hongdu JL-8; Hongdu L-15; Hongdu JQ-5J; Guizhou JJ-7; Guizhou JL-9; Chengdu J-10B; and the Chengdu FC-1B.

In contrast, the United States can barely afford three new combat aircraft programs, cancelled its only "new" attack helicopter program, and thinks it may be able to dispense with buying new advanced trainers due to progress in simulation.


Cshannon...

...good call, but funny it would appear as of late though that Chinas airforces are progressing faster then Americas.

They have just released several new aircrafts.

Cshannon wrote:
China and NK don`t have a particularly friendly relationship either.


More so then North Korea and any other country Id say seeing as China was once their allie.


Cshannon wrote:
Japan has the most advanced technology on the planet


I dont think fancy automobiles and electronic home devices count for much along the lines of "war machines"


Cshannon wrote:
NK is small potatoes at the end of the day: just one of the poorest, cruelest and most internationally despised countries around.


Small potatoes who launched a three staged rocket bomb directly over Japan without Japan being able to do a thing...

...lucky it missed as a spectic might say Wink

Also small potatoes who have more missile power then almost any other country.


Anyways, you say that this war will never happen, and it might not, but I think it is daft to not recognize that there is a lot of tension in Asia at the moment...

...and Japan is on the end of it.


This will be my conclusion though, as I dont want to start an opinion battle, and Cshannon you have made me do some research and I can see where you are coming from.

Thanks for the small debate Wink
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Cshannon



Joined: 10 Dec 2004
Posts: 114

PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
...and I quote from Chinas most recent air exhibit.

Quote:
As of this show, one is able to count about 16 new combat aircraft programs and seven training aircraft programs in China. These include: the Sukhoi Su-30MKK; Su-30MKK2; Sukhoi/Shenyang J-11; Shenyang J-8H; Shenyang XXJ; Chengdu J-10; Chengdu FC-1; Chengdu J-7G; Chengdu XXJ; Xian JH-7A; Xian H-6; Hongdu Q-5; Guizhou LCS-16; CHRDI WZ-10; WZ-11; and the Harbin WZ-9. In addition, China may be developing an advanced long-range strike bomber and has the Chengdu J-7MF lightweight fighter program in reserve. Severn training aircraft in production or development include: the Hongdu JL-8; Hongdu L-15; Hongdu JQ-5J; Guizhou JJ-7; Guizhou JL-9; Chengdu J-10B; and the Chengdu FC-1B.

In contrast, the United States can barely afford three new combat aircraft programs, cancelled its only "new" attack helicopter program, and thinks it may be able to dispense with buying new advanced trainers due to progress in simulation.


Cshannon...

...good call, but funny it would appear as of late though that Chinas airforces are progressing faster then Americas.

They have just released several new aircrafts


So what are you trying to say here? That China`s military can compare with America`s? Are you kidding? I don`t know what your so-called source is, but all I could see was a bunch of Chinese names (what`s a Chengdu J-10B anyway?).

Quote:
...good call, but funny it would appear as of late though that Chinas airforces are progressing faster then Americas.


Do I really need to reply to this? I mean come on... America`s airforce is lightyears ahead of China`s, it`s obvious. America`s annual military spending since the Iraq war is probably greater than China`s GDP. You do realise that your saying China`s "military is progressing faster than America`s" was totally absurd, right? Sorry to be the one to tell you...

Quote:
They have just released several new aircrafts


Newly bought from an obsolete Soviet arsenal you mean... True, China`s military is modernising (I`ll give you that), but at present it`s old and inferior.

Quote:
I dont think fancy automobiles and electronic home devices count for much along the lines of "war machines"


Oh you don`t think? You really can`t make the connection, huh? I see... I`m not even going to comment on this...

Quote:
Also small potatoes who have more missile power then almost any other country


I wouldn`t go that far... They have some missiles sure, but they have nothing compared the western countries. If it ever came down to the wire, NK could be completely wiped off the face of the earth in 2 minutes by vastly superior America missiles. You might have been able to make such a comment about Russia, maybe even China, but not NK. And again, missiles aside, the NK army poses zero threat to Japan. S. Korea maybe, but not Japan.

Quote:
but I think it is daft to not recognize that there is a lot of tension in Asia at the moment...

...and Japan is on the end of it.


There`s too much at stake for such a war. If it were to happen, it would be an absolute catastrophe for the whole world (it could never be limited to just 2 countries like these), so I really doubt these gov`ts would be stupid enough. It`s just a lot of barking and bluffing and diplomacy, but as for all out war, I seriously doubt it. I`m not in charge though (it`s not up to me), so I can`t really say for sure, I`m just being realistic (as opposed to daft).

Not much of a debate really...
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Nagoyaguy



Joined: 15 May 2003
Posts: 425
Location: Aichi, Japan

PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The red Chinese dont have the force necessary to take on Taiwan, let alone Japan. Here's why;

1/ sealift capacity. The PLAN (Navy) does not have enough amphibious capable ships to mount an invasion. At most, they can carry 1 or 2 divisions (30,000 men) at a time. Then, turn around and make another trip. The turnaround time is at least 4 or 5 days. In the meantime, the troops landed already would get chopped to sushi.

2/ base capacity. THE PLAAF (Air force) doesnt have enough bases close to Japan to mount a successful air campaign. Sure, they have lots of planes, and some are pretty good, too. But, there isnt enough space for them to park, get refuelled, get weapons, etc.

3/ refuelling. The PLAAF lacks refuelling capacity for its fighters. The bombers would fly over Japan unescorted, and would be sitting ducks.

4/ distance. Japanese fighters would be flying over their home turf. Again, turnaround time is the key. Each Japanese plane could fly 3 sorties to every one for the PLAAF.

Japan could not invade China, but they COULD easily fight off a Chinese attack or invasion.
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mandrake



Joined: 23 Mar 2004
Posts: 14

PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 4:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you guys actually discuss this kind of stuff with your students?

What about the own bloody histories of the countries you come from? Do you make a point to discuss this with your students or do you sweep it under the carpet?
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Cshannon



Joined: 10 Dec 2004
Posts: 114

PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Do you guys actually discuss this kind of stuff with your students?

What about the own bloody histories of the countries you come from? Do you make a point to discuss this with your students or do you sweep it under the carpet?


Sorry, I don`t get it... did you mean to post this on another thread? It doesn`t fit here. Sweep what under the carpet?
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campestre



Joined: 16 Sep 2004
Posts: 46
Location: Japan

PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the pope died, could Nostradamus' prophecies ( or the prophecies the 16th century soothsayer or thereabouts) be revealing themselves??
the red kingdom etc... google it........
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Captain Onigiri



Joined: 20 Jan 2005
Posts: 103
Location: fly-over land

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
As of this show, one is able to count about 16 new combat aircraft programs and seven training aircraft programs in China. These include: the Sukhoi Su-30MKK; Su-30MKK2; Sukhoi/Shenyang J-11; Shenyang J-8H; Shenyang XXJ; Chengdu J-10; Chengdu FC-1; Chengdu J-7G; Chengdu XXJ; Xian JH-7A; Xian H-6; Hongdu Q-5; Guizhou LCS-16; CHRDI WZ-10; WZ-11; and the Harbin WZ-9. In addition, China may be developing an advanced long-range strike bomber and has the Chengdu J-7MF lightweight fighter program in reserve. Severn training aircraft in production or development include: the Hongdu JL-8; Hongdu L-15; Hongdu JQ-5J; Guizhou JJ-7; Guizhou JL-9; Chengdu J-10B; and the Chengdu FC-1B.

In contrast, the United States can barely afford three new combat aircraft programs, cancelled its only "new" attack helicopter program, and thinks it may be able to dispense with buying new advanced trainers due to progress in simulation.

I think you might have been fooled by a little skillful propaganda. It's good to remember that the US military went through the Iraqi defenses like a hot knife through butter (not that I approve of its use in this way) and the Iraqis had bought most of their armaments from the Chinese and Russians. That's why military experts were so interested in the conflict. They could compare the newest American military technology against the technology of perceived 'traditional' adversaries in a situation that wasn't a simulation.
The US and Japanese defense has been intertwined since the end of WWII (Mostly the US took the defense of Japan over from Japan for a long time and is now only slowly letting that go). The US saw Japan as a buffer between itself and China and the Soviet Union. That's why there are so many American military bases in Japan, also why the US bothers with Guam, the Phillipines, etc. All those bases were make sure any future conflict with communists were fought on foreign soil not American soil and to protect shipping in the Pacific.
I think it's safe to say that no G7/8 country would tolerate an attack on Japan. Japan has the 2nd largest economy in the world. No one would allow adversarial China to harness Japan's economic and technological might unchallenged. That's probably why China has to make do with some rock throwing. Then again, a person would like to say it all seems so logical but an important lesson from history to learn is that war and logic don't always go together. All through the summer of 1914 everyone in Europe said that war couldn't happen. It was too illogical and every country had too much to lose. They all said it until the first bullet was fired and Europe managed to break their own two centuries of ascendancy. I wouldn't count on the logic of the other side to keep yourself out of war. Maybe the Japanese non-response is wiser than we think...
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Captain Onigiri



Joined: 20 Jan 2005
Posts: 103
Location: fly-over land

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Do you guys actually discuss this kind of stuff with your students?


O yeah, I meant to respond to this as well. I think I can be safe in responding for all of us and say NO! First, we are foreigners living in Japan (or looking for a position in Japan). Second, the subject we teach is English, not political science or history. But most importantly, any teacher who is familiar with child development should know that students in their early to mid teens are only beginning to understand the concept of hypothetical. The kind of discussion we are having on this thread is really best left for college. Preferably late at night, in your dorm room with friends. Sometimes called a bull session.
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sidjameson



Joined: 11 Jan 2004
Posts: 629
Location: osaka

PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most of my students have a hard time responding to "how's it going?" I don't think they are quite ready for a debate on Japan versus China regards their respective military strengths.
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shuize



Joined: 04 Sep 2004
Posts: 1270

PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain Onigiri wrote:
As of this show, one is able to count about 16 new combat aircraft programs and seven training aircraft programs in China. These include: the Sukhoi Su-30MKK; Su-30MKK2; Sukhoi/Shenyang J-11; Shenyang J-8H; Shenyang XXJ; Chengdu J-10; Chengdu FC-1; Chengdu J-7G; Chengdu XXJ; Xian JH-7A; Xian H-6; Hongdu Q-5; Guizhou LCS-16; CHRDI WZ-10; WZ-11; and the Harbin WZ-9. In addition, China may be developing an advanced long-range strike bomber and has the Chengdu J-7MF lightweight fighter program in reserve. Severn training aircraft in production or development include: the Hongdu JL-8; Hongdu L-15; Hongdu JQ-5J; Guizhou JJ-7; Guizhou JL-9; Chengdu J-10B; and the Chengdu FC-1B.

In contrast, the United States can barely afford three new combat aircraft programs, cancelled its only "new" attack helicopter program, and thinks it may be able to dispense with buying new advanced trainers due to progress in simulation.


I'm not a hawk, but as long as we're dicussing hypotheticals ... Do you honestly believe the Chinese military can hold a candle to the United States?

To use your example. The U.S. Air Force is already leaps and bounds ahead of any other air force in the world. Two words: Stealth Technology. Is China going to invest billions to try to come up with counter measures? If not, good luck trying to invade Japan or Taiwan when you can't even pinpoint the planes that are going to sink the invasion fleet. As noted above, in such a scenario the only question would be whether the planes had enough fuel and missiles. Wait a few more years and we'll see the next generation of unmanned fighters that can do repeated 9-G turns without having to worry about the limits of a human pilot.
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Cshannon



Joined: 10 Dec 2004
Posts: 114

PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just read the recent official statement made by China's premier Wen Jiabao last week in regards to Japan becoming a permanent UN security council member:

"Only a country that respects history, takes responsibility for history and wins over the trust of peoples in Asia and the world at large can take greater responsibilities in the international community"

Pure hypocricy. The Chinese government actually has the gall to say such a thing. Unbelievable. If I were the Japanese gov't, I would throw that comment right back in China's face.
The textbook row is bad and I won't defend Japan on that. However, I no longer believe that is the real issue (merely the excuse). Like I said before, if I had to take sides (especially having read that comment), I'd have to go with Japan. I think the international community trusts Japan more anyway.
And they keep throwing stones, attacking Japanese and flipping over cars...
China is way out of line.
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Akula the shark



Joined: 06 Oct 2004
Posts: 103
Location: NZ

PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The respective strengths of each country's military aside, this current dispute is an embarrassment for both countries. Widely reported overseas, it makes both countries look bad. Japan for not sincerely facing its past, and China for over-reacting.
Each country in east Asia seems very quick to point the finger at its neighbour, but highly reluctant to engage in any form of honest self-analysis and criticism.
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canuck



Joined: 11 May 2003
Posts: 1921
Location: Japan

PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nagoyaguy wrote:
The red Chinese dont have the force necessary to take on Taiwan, let alone Japan. Here's why;

1/ sealift capacity. The PLAN (Navy) does not have enough amphibious capable ships to mount an invasion. At most, they can carry 1 or 2 divisions (30,000 men) at a time. Then, turn around and make another trip. The turnaround time is at least 4 or 5 days. In the meantime, the troops landed already would get chopped to sushi.

2/ base capacity. THE PLAAF (Air force) doesnt have enough bases close to Japan to mount a successful air campaign. Sure, they have lots of planes, and some are pretty good, too. But, there isnt enough space for them to park, get refuelled, get weapons, etc.

3/ refuelling. The PLAAF lacks refuelling capacity for its fighters. The bombers would fly over Japan unescorted, and would be sitting ducks.

4/ distance. Japanese fighters would be flying over their home turf. Again, turnaround time is the key. Each Japanese plane could fly 3 sorties to every one for the PLAAF.

Japan could not invade China, but they COULD easily fight off a Chinese attack or invasion.


This is very informative and logical. I never thought of it from this point of view. Excellent information.
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