Job Discussion Forums

[eslegypt]

In the past 150 years, the building of the American dream and rapid globalization were possible because of access to cheap abundant oil. This unique era is now coming to a close as the world is consuming far more oil than can be economically produced or discovered, thus the term Peak Oil.

Unfortunately the combined use of alternative energies such as hydrogen, solar, wind, biofuel, nuclear, etc. a) cannot replace all the uses of oil, b) most require oil somewhere in their process, and c) they are not being scaled up fast enough to keep pace with declining oil reserves.

Uninformed people's knee-jerk reaction is to think improved energy technology will save us from a declining world economy and standard of living, and will allow us to continue our addiction to cars and Caesar salads trucked up from Mexico. Experts strongly disagree.

Question for all ESL educators, especially the younger generation:

When (notice I didn�t say �If�) the global economy and trade drastically contracts in your lifetime for several generations, what impact do you think this will have on the demand for ESL teachers?

For more information on Peak Oil:

Global Public Media: www.globalpublicmedia.com
Video: End of Suburbia
Oil energy establishment banker: Matthew Simmons � Twilight in the Desert
Geologist: Colin Campbell - ASPO
James Howard Kunstler: The Long Emergency

[ls650]

Someone's sure got an agenda to push, eh?

[moot point]

This thread can get politically awfully quickly and I fear the repercussions of the backlashing and inevitable digressing attacks of those with different opinions. It would be cool if we could all be grown-ups about this for a change and enjoy a good discourse.

Anyway, here's my thought. I think we all already starting to see a trend to over-protectionism and heightened nationalism by various governments. Look at the politicians responses to the Chinese oil companies attempted takeover of a US oil company, or the EU crisis where each country seems to be getting greedier by the day. People fear the economic future and implications or regional and/or global trade.

I think more and more countries will follow suit and the globalisation trend we've seen for the past couple of generations will end and people/governments around the world will become more nationalistic. The result will be a loss in jobs for the EFL industry.

[moonraven]

1. It may not happen overnight, but if the US and the UK continue to invade other countries in order to ron their petroleum, the backlash will eventually put EFL out of business.

2. Personally, I think that's a positive outcome.

[Celeste]

[distiller]

The oil is just part of the larger issue of globalization and to be honest the imperialism of English speaking countries has benefited our field in a very direct way. That is not to say that the colonization of the world and the unchecked pillaging by corporations is good. In fact it has ensured that resource rich continents like Africa and Asia have been staggering in poverty and political repression for generations thus translating into a gross lack of balance in the distribution of wealth and consequently education, heath care, and other basic services and rights. But make no mistake that we, the educated and upwardly mobile citizens of western world, are the ones who have benefited. If you�re a neocon then your main goal in life is to maintain this inequality but if you are a human being with any sense of fairness then you�ve got to be against it, at least in principle.

I don't think demand for the language is going to slacken as we are in need of a common language as communication and travel make the world more easily navigated, in English. Esperanto hasn�t worked out and the demand for English is only going to increase. Now of course the west is shooting itself in the foot by invading sovereign countries on a whim but will pissing off a good portion of the world and a dearth of oil really mean that people will not want to increase their marketability and worldliness by learning the only thing resembling a global language? I don�t think so. I don�t think the anti-globalization crowd, of which I am a member; really realize that the goal of most second and third world countries is to follow the pattern of the countries like the US and how much that urge is tied into speaking English. The elite that the masses are desperate to emulate and become in their own countries are almost always quite good English as a second language speaking and very often light skinned. They are simply seen as traits of those who have �made it�. All of you in Asia seeing the skin whitening craze will know what I�m talking about. We need to understand that much of the world sees the US, and outside of the idiot president and unnecessary wars, wants to emulate what is billed as economic success and easy living. It�s not the truth but that is the bill of goods they�ve been sold and it is rare to find leaders with the vision to stand up against that and try to redirect their people.

Anyway, long story short: dependence on oil that is quickly drying up is bad and globalization in its current form is bad but they will not have an impact on the number of ESL/EFL jobs available.

[JonnytheMann]

This thread is very interesting. I've learned a lot.

P.S. I didn't know there was a skin whitening craze in Asia. How do you whiten skin?

[younggeorge]

[mattDYS]

I�ve been considering getting a Masters in TESOL, so I�ve actually given this some thought (glad to know I�m not the only one). If travel becomes prohibitively expensive, will people still want to pay money to learn English? And the lack of cheap oil would not just affect travel prices, but also everything from food production to manufacturing, which would result in hard times for the global economy. So, not only would there be less of a need to speak English due decreased mobility, but also less disposable income to fork over for lessons.

I think these are the problems the op is getting at, rather than an increasingly hegemonic America turning people off from learning English. More than a few of the students I taught had a vague distrust of America and its policies, yet this didn�t seem to affect their desire to learn English. This was in Japan, so the story might be different in other parts of the world.

Sometimes I think I shouldn�t sink any money into getting the MA, and instead just get back out there and see the world and teach while I still can. But mostly I think I�m worrying too much, and that I should stick to my original plan. Unfortunately there hasn�t been much coverage of this topic in the US media (though with the record high oil prices we�ve been seeing lately, this may start to change).

[moonraven]

According to survey results published today in La Jornada newspaper here in Mexico, the US is the most hated country on the planet--in some countries up to 80% of the people believe that the US will invade their country. The survey was conducted by the Pew Global Attittudes Project, and there is a story on it in English on www.commondreams.org.

[darkhorse]

post deleted

[moonraven]

True, darkhorse. The implications are dire--for the entire planet.

On another track, the Mayan and Hopi prophecies indicate everything will go up in flames in December 2012 if there is not a drastic change of consciousness--or a critical mass of new consciousness on the planet.

Some of us see that as coinciding with the peak oil problem, global warming, the scarcity of water and all of the other disasters caused by our species as we have wreaked havoc on planet Earth.

At my age, it's fairly moot. Unfortunately it is also moot to the neocons who are mounting the invasions and grabbing resources, as they are all around my age....

[darkhorse]

post deleted

[Justin Trullinger]

So much for the age of Aquarius, harmonic convergence, and all that bullstuff.

It may be moot for the neocons, but I suspect that you, Moonraven, have a certain amount of conscience with regards to what you leave behind. I recently read an essay on the impending apocalypse- many reputable scientists believe that global warming alone will change the conditions of life on this planet so dramatically that the current human population will be unsustainable. (Can't remember where I read it, but when I do, I'll link it here.)

But I suspect that the English speaking neo-cons won't let go till the end, so heck, as long as there�s air to breathe, and water to drink, there'll be EFL. It just may not be as long as you think...

Seriously, I've often thought that a greater risk to our profession, at least the large scale of it, would be if people actually learned the language. Many countries (Sweden, Switzerland, and more an more, Germany) only use native teachers for the very top levels, as they (now) have so many competent English teachers of their own. As the quality of locals available increases, we will find ourselves getting scarcer. (In Ecuador, the risk seems minimal at this point...)

Think good thoughts everyone, and have a nice apocalypse.

Justin

[eslegypt]

I'm very impressed with the responses this topic has generated. ESL folks seem to be much better informed than the folks caught up in the corporate world 'living the American dream'.

It's people like you who will adapt to changes headed our way. Others won't be so lucky.

For those wondering whether to pursue further education, I suggest you go to Matt Savinar's site www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. Matt was a young lawyer until he educated himself on Peak Oil. I know of a number of younger people who are now rethinking their career path.... not that I'm suggesting it one way or the other.

As someone else mentioned, we will not all wake up one day and have our world around us in utter chaos. However, we will scale down from energy and technology use much faster than we adapted to it. This will result in fewer people and things being moved around great distances.