Job Discussion Forums

[gerard]

Did you read this Herald-Trib article awhile back about possible drags on the economy here??? Can't remember 10 but here goes"

An OVERHEATING ECONOMY. It is felt there are too many bad loans out there combined with a lot of skyscrapers going up which cannot find tenants. This is the sort of thing that led to the 97 crash in Asia.

DRINKING WATER---A shortage of good water could lead to a 2% drag on the economy. (I'm quoting here so cut me slack.)

DESERTS: Not apple pie. A swath of land almost the size of Japan has become desert in the last 20 years and it continues. Beijing will be in trouble if something is not done.

UNEMPLOYMENT: According to this the rate is very high although you wouldn't think so when you see everyone working hard. (Note to self: How does a high unemployment rate have a detrimental effect on the economy???) Another 2% the story says.

AIDS: It is not Africa but unless PRC face up to this problem it could gert worse. Another 2% they say.

PIRACY and TM VIOLATION: Foreign corporations will lose trust if trademarks are worthless here hence reducing investment.

OK I am stuck on 6 here but I think the rest tie in---unethical businesses and personal debt might be 2 more. And low salary (we need them as consumers.) Tied to unemployment..

I post this not in a snarky way as in we are all doomed...I think China is great and I hope things keep getting better here. But these things could effect (affect??? ) us at some point...

Have a nice day...

[MyTurnNow]

Having lived in Changchun I can confirm the high unemployment rate. It's been around 25% in such places- closing the SOEs there was devastating. Recovery in Changchun, at least, is happening, but slowly.

Unemployed people in such numbers drain a lot of money in the form of aid from government coffers, which in turn must come from private-sector taxes. Money spent on such (in this case needed) welfare is money not invested in infrastructure, etc. And the unemployed certainly don't contribute too much to the economy in return, in terms of either labor input or consumer spending.

How's Jinan?
MT

[gerard]

Hey MTN yes I heard the unemployment rate was around 25%according to this article. I thought it was about 8%. Especially when it seems everybody is working. I guess in 10 years there will be a billion unemployed people with AIDS stumbling around a desert looking fo a job and some water. And living in empty office towers. OH well I guess this wasm't interesting-lets see what wanderlust the troll has to say.

[Wolf]

[Roger]

You need to read the FAR EASTERN ECONOMIC REVIEW, guys, www.feer.com
This is a pro-Asian publication but it offers a lot of hard facts and truths.
As for unemployment, almost every weekly issue has some bad news. My own insight - just ask your college or uni students that have graduated and are currently looking for a job... in some places, up to half of last year's graduates are still jobless.
Part of the problem is, of course, that Chinese youths are over-pampered and selfish, looking for a job they like rather than a job they are suitable for. IT's an attitudinal issue, and I wonder if our being accomplices to their various pass-the English-exam-schemes is reinforcing a bad situation. Just thinking of the many "English teachers" we help enter the labour market has me worried!

The water problem:
The are diverting water from the south to quench the thirst of the millions in the arid north and east. Most rivers, lakes and canals carry stagnant or not-so stagnant waste waters, a real cloaca magna as the Romans called their sewers! Even the waters off Hong Kong's shorelines are dangerously polluted you could catch a life-threatening disease from swimming there!

Banks:
The figure is so staggering I cannot remember, but to put it in plain language: If China's four nationalised banks wanted to get 20% of their outstanding loans back - the economy would collapse, with the banks going to the drain first.
Most savings from the country's citizens has been sunk into speculative properties and ailing state-owned industries! There is a housing glut, so much of the loaned funds is lost for good. Ditto for SOE's.
If you want to buy a SOE, thinking it's available at a bargain price now, you might be right as far as the installations and the land is concerned; however, you would have to take care of their workers. A German company bought a CHinese heater factory here a couple of years back; the Germans are now saddled with 200 staff, 150 of whom were recruited in the bad old days of iron-rice bowls (eternal employment).
If they want to sack them, they have to pay them a monthly salary of 100% for two years more!
The fifty staff hired over the past two years have a different mindset due to having experienced market forces as labourers; some of them earn more than their colleagues the SOE hired before. Imagine how this grates on the minds of the old workers!
But if the Germans did not offer better conditions to any newcomer they would not be able to hire the right workers! It's a vicious circle!