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Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
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 Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 8:21 am Post subject: economic crash in Asia? |
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just a little something that I've been mulling over....
As the US housing bubble bursts, (some say that it will crash hard), a recession in the US will begin (this is predicted by many respected economists, and also by common sense TEFLers)! Close to 75% of the total growth in US GDP is related to housing...and how many thousands of jobs? Over 40% of all private sector jobs created since 2001 have been in housing-related sectors such as construction, real estate and mortgage banking.
An economy-wide recession in the US will certainly impact Asian economies....and the teaching market(s) here. US consumers will not be buying all of that "stuff" anymore! Will this cause social upheaval in China? Riots and general lawlessness? Once Asian economies stop buying dollars, then the US is really in trouble! Less foreign investment means worsening conditions in the US... the problem could spiral into a huge mess...
Are we ready? Have any of you had experience working in Asia during the economic crisis of 1997-1998? Do you save in US dollars or Euro or ?
I would like to read your thoughts on this very serious topic!  |
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saint57
Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 1221
Location: Beyond the Dune Sea
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| Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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When I'm in Canada and I have negative thoughts like you're having I tune into Kudlow & Co. He is the eternal optimist.
Sept 1 2006
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the US economy is alive and well. Prosperity continues. The cult of the bear, fussing about a housing-related recession, has once more been proven wrong. Indeed, one might say that the US is approaching full employment.
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http://kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/2006/09/pardon-repetition-but-it-remains.html |
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Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
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| Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 8:22 pm Post subject: |
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| saint57 wrote: |
| When I'm in Canada and I have negative thoughts like you're having I tune into Kudlow & Co. He is the eternal optimist. |
thanks for the response...but I am not having
  I am a realist who reads from a wide range of sources. The US housing market is most definitely grinding down...whether or not this creates recession in the near term remains to be seen. My query is about how we in the expat community will fare during a crisis.
I appreciate the reference to Kudlow, but he is hardly an objective voice in these matters:
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Lawrence_Kudlow
interesting....I just saw these articles on the Asia Times online:
US Economy in Denial
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HI27Dj02.html
What a US Recession Means for China
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HI27Dj01.html |
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moot point
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Posts: 441
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| Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Have any of you had experience working in Asia during the economic crisis of 1997-1998? |
Yes, although I wasn't living in the Tiger economies at the time. I was in Japan.
There have been ups and downs but from what I've seen over my 10+ years living in Asia is that the EFL industry continues to expand in developing Asia.
I think a trend that has been prevalent in recent years is that we are seeing less Asian students travel to English-speaking countries to study. A lot of this was, at first, blamed on the 1997-98 economic crisis and later on geo-political concerns. But on the other hand, there has been an increase in English programs and/or schools within their own country. It is cheaper for the student to bring in foreign teachers and study at home instead of travelling abroad.
In Japan, I also saw an increase in English study amongst businessmen and students once their economy began to turn downhill. They suddenly felt a need to become more competitive in the world marketplace to open up more opportunities. The difference, however, is that these people were now paying from their own pockets as opposed to being subsidised by their employers. I think you'll see the same in other Asian countries if we see a slow-down in the economy.
So all in all, I don't think you really need to worry to much about your future in the ESL industry. If anything, you will probably be able to further your chances here in the event the economy slows down. |
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Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
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| Posted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:17 am Post subject: |
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| moot point wrote: |
I think you'll see the same in other Asian countries if we see a slow-down in the economy.
So all in all, I don't think you really need to worry to much about your future in the ESL industry. If anything, you will probably be able to further your chances here in the event the economy slows down. |
that makes sense...thank you for the reply!  |
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saint57
Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 1221
Location: Beyond the Dune Sea
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| Posted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 12:10 pm Post subject: |
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| What happened to the TESL market when the internet bubble burst? I wasn't teach at that time, but I doubt it had any effect at all. A downturn in the U.S. housing market will not cause a worldwide crisis. |
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Steppenwolf
Joined: 30 Jul 2006
Posts: 1769
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| Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:32 am Post subject: |
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"Serious Fun" - you got the wrong name; yours ought by rights to be MOOT POINT, judging by the topic.
Why do you believe the Usanian economy's bottoming-out would have such dire consequences for Asia? I don't share your assessment! Your consumers will still buy Chinese-made products because you have no industrial base to compete against the Chinese.
And the Chinese are on track to becoming a consumder nation as well. I am not in favour of this trend but I can see the benefits too.
The past has shown time and again that no single country depends on another single economy with total impunity; the Asians will scramble and strughgle to get traction under their feet - whether with or without Uncle Sam as their trading partner. In economic crises humans' natural urge will take over: it's the we-first syndrome. |
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Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
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| Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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thank you for the response...
| Steppenwolf wrote: |
Why do you believe the Usanian economy's bottoming-out would have such dire consequences for Asia? I don't share your assessment! |
I am concerned by the fact that China and Japan own so much of the US debt. If/when the dollar weakens, so does the net worth of those countries owning the debt, n'est-ce-pas?
| Steppenwolf wrote: |
In economic crises humans' natural urge will take over: it's the we-first syndrome. |
My point exactly. A nation whose wealth is shrinking because of the weakening dollar will not continue to bail out the US...and the US consumer will not continue to buy...
We shall see... |
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durian
Joined: 08 Nov 2005
Posts: 6
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| Posted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:08 am Post subject: Great |
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| When I was doing my MA TESOL at San Jose State, my professors told me that when economies go bad people return to school. They need to be more competitive and so will invest in that through further training/education. I believe the students will continue to be there, but it may flood the ESL market with laid-off workers??? |
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Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
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| Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 7:01 am Post subject: |
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| Steppenwolf wrote: |
Why do you believe the Usanian economy's bottoming-out would have such dire consequences for Asia? I don't share your assessment! Your consumers will still buy Chinese-made products because you have no industrial base to compete against the Chinese.
And the Chinese are on track to becoming a consumer nation as well. |
Almost 6 months since my initial post on this thread, and I still think that the USA's coming recession (depression? meltdown of the dollar?) will hit us hard in Asia...how hard it hits Asian economies is the question for me.
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| Asian lenders who suffered losses from buying US securities are unlikely to purchase other US obligations until a clearer picture of the economy emerges. This translates to a withdrawal of liquidity from US financial markets, adversely affecting the prospects for the rest of the year. Americans, who are used to consuming more than they produce, will have to reverse course. |
we shall see...  
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IC10Dj01.html
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| China has the most to lose from a currency appreciation. In addition to the accounting losses on its foreign-exchange reserves, the country will also have to set aside money to rescue its banks, whose bad debts will mount precariously when the economy suddenly lurches from export orientation to domestic consumption. The only reason to rush this through now is that waiting a few more months would make the eventual impact worse for both the US and China. |
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Glenski
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN
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| Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 7:30 am Post subject: |
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| Have been in Japan since late 98. The yen has fluctuated with the American dollar from 110 to 130 or so in all that time. Back and forth, back and forth. I see no change other than that. |
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Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
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| Posted: Thu Mar 15, 2007 6:07 am Post subject: |
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| Glenski wrote: |
| Have been in Japan since late 98. The yen has fluctuated with the American dollar from 110 to 130 or so in all that time. Back and forth, back and forth. I see no change other than that. |
I hope that this recent "nervousness" on the part of world markets is just normal ebb and flow...it just seems to me that we are in for a pretty major financial storm this year, set off by the USAnian sub-prime mortgage concerns...
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natsume
Joined: 24 Apr 2006
Posts: 409
Location: Chongqing, China
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Anda
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Posts: 2199
Location: Jiangsu Province
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:37 am Post subject: Um |
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I was in South Korea before and during the economic crisis of 1997-1998. The exchange rate started off at 950,000 won to a thousand US and ended up at about 2,000,000 won to a thousand US.
Some of us experienced a little anti foreigner sediment but not much. Cost of living went up slowly but so did wages after a year. Exchange rates speak for themselves.
This time, I don�t see anywhere safe especially big cities. Oh and things happen so quick. One day you have to wait 20 minutes for a taxi and the next day there is a line of taxis waiting to pick you up.
Oh and about two thirds of our lot ran home from Korea after the exchange rate crashed. |
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Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
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| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 2:17 am Post subject: regional monetary cooperation |
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As some of you may know, the so-called ASEAN+3 recently agreed to pool part of their massive foreign reserves as a hedge against financial disruption.
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUST21280820070506
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| Although Asian finance ministers have just agreed on a new contingency measure to defend their currencies, their real concerns appear to be a plunge in the U.S. dollar rather than a rise in their own units. |
common sense... (common cents?) 
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| "Should the financial markets lose confidence in the U.S. dollar, huge capital outflows from the U.S. could lead to a rapid depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and thus dramatic appreciation of other currencies," Thai Finance Minister Chalongphob Sussangkarn told the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Kyoto, western Japan. |
My argument in this thread was that a loss of wealth would take place given the investment in the house of cards, err....I mean the US economy. Would a sudden appreciation of Asian currencies amount to the same thing? Loss of "real" export revenue, worthless payments on accounts past due, etc., etc.?
...I am not a Finance Minister....just a lowly English language teacher...
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| If the dollar falls further on speculation that the U.S. trade deficit can only be rectified by a cheaper dollar, that would give a headache to some Asian countries already nervous about the strength of their currencies. |
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| South Korea's Kwon also said there was another imbalance -- in the share of the burden of the fall in the U.S. dollar. That may be a possible swipe at Japan and China, whose currencies have not appreciated much against the U.S. currency in recent years. |
The SK Minister is saying these things at the behest of the former Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO Henry Paulson, the current USAnian Treasury Secretary, n'est-ce-pas?
(and who does Paulson speak for?) 
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