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Where will the wave head?

 
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spiral78



Joined: 05 Apr 2004
Posts: 11534
Location: On a Short Leash

PostPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:16 pm    Post subject: Where will the wave head? Reply with quote

It seems that the ME region may be laying off or will soon lay off some fairly large numbers of relatively highly qualified EFL teachers.

If true, where do people expect this little wave of teachers to head next? I'm betting mostly Asia, as the market is bigger and relatively more lucrative and easy to get into.

If I am correct, competition for jobs in Asia should increase, and general standards would rise at least somewhat.

Not saying I think some thousands of qualified teachers will change the landscape entirely, but I am betting there will be a visible effect. Overall, IMO, probably for the better as higher qualifications are a signal of greater competency in most cases.
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nomad soul



Joined: 31 Jan 2010
Posts: 11454
Location: The real world

PostPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not layoffs in the Gulf, but rather, contract terminations and nonrenewals. The region is experiencing the following:
    1. A declining/stagnant oil market, which has greatly impacted the GCC economies and overall salaries. However, salaries have been in a slow decline over the past 5 or so years.

    2. Terminations of mainly oil-industry English instructors.

    3. A push region wide for qualified nationals (MA/PhD holders) to replace contracted expats, including those teaching in university foundation year programs.

    4. The phasing out of the UAE's English foundation year programs in the country's government universities, which were major employers of highly-qualified EFL teachers. These programs are expected to be completely eliminated within the next couple of years.

This is why we've stressed to potential newcomers to the region that the TEFL market isn't likely to be what they expect when they plan to head over in the next few years and beyond.

By the way, for teachers in the Mid East with a TESOL-related MA/PhD, Asia isn't more lucrative than the Gulf; there are still good-paying, direct-hire jobs for the well-qualified. However, those with lesser and unrelated degrees are seeing a huge reduction in salary and benefits being offered by for-profit contracting companies. China, Korea, and possibly Japan would likely appeal to them if they plan to stay in TEFL and can no longer qualify for the Gulf.

That said, the Gulf offers good opportunities for qualified (licensed/certified) k-12 teachers with experience teaching their subject in their home country. In fact, there are more international schools in the tiny UAE than in any other country (including China). However, requirements in the Gulf are specific, so k-12 wannabe teachers shouldn't cut corners in terms of teaching qualifications and experience.
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santi84



Joined: 14 Mar 2008
Posts: 1317
Location: under da sea

PostPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Opportunities are going well in the less desirable Canadian locations, such as rural Alberta and the regions around larger towns in Saskatchewan/Manitoba. These jobs require related degrees and Canadian work permission, which is a problem for many applicants, but an option for some Canadians abroad who want to return home.
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taikibansei



Joined: 14 Sep 2004
Posts: 811
Location: Japan

PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 1:00 am    Post subject: Re: Where will the wave head? Reply with quote

spiral78 wrote:
It seems that the ME region may be laying off or will soon lay off some fairly large numbers of relatively highly qualified EFL teachers.

If true, where do people expect this little wave of teachers to head next? I'm betting mostly Asia, as the market is bigger and relatively more lucrative and easy to get into.

If I am correct, competition for jobs in Asia should increase, and general standards would rise at least somewhat.

Not saying I think some thousands of qualified teachers will change the landscape entirely, but I am betting there will be a visible effect. Overall, IMO, probably for the better as higher qualifications are a signal of greater competency in most cases.


If by "Asia" you mean China (and maybe Vietnam), I agree with you. That said, I don't see it for the rest of Asia. They won't be considered especially competitive for the dwindling number of "good" (i.e., permanent or long-term positions with high salaries and decent workloads) jobs in Japan. Singapore and Hong Kong have always been really tough job markets, and the qualification requirements for university hires in Korea have been rising for the last five years--again, they won't be especially competitive now. The number of university jobs in Taiwan is shrinking faster than its student population, with several universities already set to close their doors--not going to be much work there. The Philippines exports teachers to the rest of the world--no need for them to hire foreigners. Finally, if Thailand paid more for "quality," we'd all probably be teaching there...but they don't, so we don't.

I'm thinking most of "the wave" will simply return to their home countries and try to find ESL jobs there. Or maybe if they qualify by citizenship, they'll look for work in the EU.
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suphanburi



Joined: 20 Mar 2014
Posts: 916

PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:52 pm    Post subject: Re: Where will the wave head? Reply with quote

spiral78 wrote:
It seems that the ME region may be laying off or will soon lay off some fairly large numbers of relatively highly qualified EFL teachers.

If true, where do people expect this little wave of teachers to head next? I'm betting mostly Asia, as the market is bigger and relatively more lucrative and easy to get into.

If I am correct, competition for jobs in Asia should increase, and general standards would rise at least somewhat.

Not saying I think some thousands of qualified teachers will change the landscape entirely, but I am betting there will be a visible effect. Overall, IMO, probably for the better as higher qualifications are a signal of greater competency in most cases.


There aren't enough EFL/ESL teachers/lecturers in the ME to even make a dent in the China market much less the broader Asia market space.

China could easily, in spite of the current downturn, absorb 50,000 teachers and not even notice it.

The only question is are they willing to work in those markets (most of them would have to start near the bottom of the heap again - different job than teaching in the ME) or will they return home to flip burgers at McDs or the pour pints at the local pub.

.
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Knedliki



Joined: 08 May 2015
Posts: 160

PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 4:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Where will the wave head? Reply with quote

suphanburi wrote:
or will they return home to flip burgers at McDs or the pour pints at the local pub.

.


Maybe you're the one who should be flipping burgers! Or the pour the pint the!
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suphanburi



Joined: 20 Mar 2014
Posts: 916

PostPosted: Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Where will the wave head? Reply with quote

Knedliki wrote:
suphanburi wrote:
or will they return home to flip burgers at McDs or the pour pints at the local pub.

.


Maybe you're the one who should be flipping burgers! Or the pour the pint!


My comment cut a bit bit too close to home did it?

My comment wasn't about their qualification or abilities but about other markets (the part you cut out) and the available opportunities when they transition home after years of EFL teaching in the ME.

What else is there for immediate employment upon your return home when your skill set and resume for the last few years is "EFL teacher" unless you actually are a licensed teacher?

For someone with a generic BA, a 30-day TEFL/TESOL course and 2 or 3 years in the ME as a teacher.... the short term, immediate employment prospects for professional work in their field (or most professional fields) are probably not great. Don't like McDs then there is always insurance sales or entry level retail.

Staying in EFL upon return home might work in some regions but long term salaried positions at a uni or in research, unless they had a PhD in TESOL related subjects (TEFL, Applied Linguistics. etc) or continued to develop their publications and presentations, is not likely to happen.

At least McDs pays the bills while someone sorts out their resume and starts looking for real work and I for one an not too proud to do it. It certainly beats returning to my parents basement as a couch potato and praying for something that suits my "qualifications".

.
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Big Worm



Joined: 02 Jan 2011
Posts: 171

PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting q. Ive been considering the future of foreign teaching i (not just esl), and I see the long term trend being Africa. Tons of new investment from China, one of the last places to have cheap as dirt labor. Something to think about.
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scot47



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Posts: 15343

PostPosted: Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Africa ? You are 50 years too late. Like many of my compatriots I taught in Africa in the post-independence education boom. These jobs have now been Africanised. They do not need us !
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In the heat of the moment



Joined: 22 May 2015
Posts: 393
Location: Italy

PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2016 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not necessarily, many countries legislate only hiring native speakers even though it would be cheaper to be open to all countries' teachers.
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