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General Demand for ESL Teachers Declining?

 
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gloomyGumi



Joined: 29 Dec 2010
Posts: 353

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 6:37 am    Post subject: General Demand for ESL Teachers Declining? Reply with quote

Do you think in general that the net amount of ESL jobs available at any given point in the academic year (different countries' semesters start at different times) has declined significantly from, say, 5 years ago?

What is your general observation about availablility in Asia compared to what it was in 2005 or so? Perhaps demand in some countries has declined while in others it has increased. This could be due to big changes in government requirements, or general economic downturns.

Perhaps we can be country-specific rather than speaking of Asia in general. In sum, has English language learning become even more in demand, or is it steadily becoming less of a priority? Seeing China as really rising to number one on the world stage in just about every way, wouldn't Mandarin reasonably become the more-desired language within the next few years?
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tttompatz



Joined: 06 Mar 2010
Posts: 1951
Location: Talibon, Bohol, Philippines

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

2005 - Korea had 15,000 E2s issued. 2009 they had 30,000.
China (SAFEA) is predicting an on-going demand of 50,000 NEW ESL teachers per year (plus current staffing) over the next decade (SAFEA suggesting as many as of a 1/2 million foreign teachers by 2025).

15,000 legal teachers in Thailand now (with an estimated 15,000 more who are not) and continued growth due to increasing demand in the government schools.

Japan is fairly stagnant at an estimated 15,000 (JET estimations).

Taiwan is again fairly stable in the ESL department but continues to import licensed teachers at a fairly constant rate.

The markets for ESL in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, et al continue to grow.

With the current demand for ESL in China, English well entrenched as the global lingua franca and more than 60 countries list it as an official language) I don't see demand falling over the next 2-3 decades unless there is a major catastrophe that shuts down global trade, travel, commerce and communication.

.
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gloomyGumi



Joined: 29 Dec 2010
Posts: 353

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
unless there is a major catastrophe that shuts down global trade, travel, commerce and communication.



i couldnt have asked for a more comprehensive, hard-hitting, factual answer than that. those stats are really intersting and surely quell alot of doubts i had about this. u r right it is still the lingua franca.

on the major catastrophe thing, i see it coming quite soon, however. Smile
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Sadebugo



Joined: 10 May 2003
Posts: 524

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gloomyGumi wrote:
Quote:
unless there is a major catastrophe that shuts down global trade, travel, commerce and communication.



i couldnt have asked for a more comprehensive, hard-hitting, factual answer than that. those stats are really intersting and surely quell alot of doubts i had about this. u r right it is still the lingua franca.

on the major catastrophe thing, i see it coming quite soon, however. Smile


Ttompatz said it all, but I do understand what you mean. It was so much easier getting the job of your choice when I first started teaching EFL than it is today. That would give the impression that demand was decreasing but I believe it is more of the supply increasing as economies in the West suffer and the professional opportunities become better known. The positives of that are that better qualifications are required which can only enhance the reputation of the field.

Sadebugo
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ttompatz, I'd be interested in knowing where you got those figures.

JET ALT numbers have been going down since 2002. The 2 biggest conversation schools here went bankrupt recently, putting many on the street. Although a lot were picked up again, I suspect many did not remain. Total for those 2 employers was in the thousands.

Population in Japan is declining, so schools are closing or merging. Other conversation schools are closing. Therefore, I'd have to say the Japan market isn't "stagnant", but declining.
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steki47



Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 1029
Location: BFE Inaka

PostPosted: Sun Feb 13, 2011 2:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:

Population in Japan is declining, so schools are closing or merging. Other conversation schools are closing. Therefore, I'd have to say the Japan market isn't "stagnant", but declining.


This I have seen firsthand. I have been here since 2003 and watched the job market sink.

I am considering moving to another country Asia and would like to see some positive numbers for a change.
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gloomyGumi



Joined: 29 Dec 2010
Posts: 353

PostPosted: Sun Feb 13, 2011 5:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

4 sure china is not declining! plenty of esl jobs there.
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tttompatz



Joined: 06 Mar 2010
Posts: 1951
Location: Talibon, Bohol, Philippines

PostPosted: Sun Feb 13, 2011 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
ttompatz, I'd be interested in knowing where you got those figures.


Korean numbers are published by K-immi. 2009 was the last year available.

Japan numbers (as estimated) were from a link off the JET page or the Japanese embassy page (in Canada). I cannot confirm the validity of the number but even with the collapse of 2 large private employers I would think that the numbers are still not far off the mark (if all ESL / English teachers from all sources are taken into account).

Thai numbers were from Thai immigration and are subject to controversy (actual numbers may be higher).

China numbers are from SAFEA.

Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, et al were a best guess and based on observation of posted jobs over a number of years from a number of sources.
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PG_Tips



Joined: 02 Mar 2011
Posts: 20
Location: TYO

PostPosted: Tue Mar 08, 2011 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
ttompatz, I'd be interested in knowing where you got those figures.

JET ALT numbers have been going down since 2002. The 2 biggest conversation schools here went bankrupt recently, putting many on the street. Although a lot were picked up again, I suspect many did not remain. Total for those 2 employers was in the thousands.

Population in Japan is declining, so schools are closing or merging. Other conversation schools are closing. Therefore, I'd have to say the Japan market isn't "stagnant", but declining.

I would agree the closure of big name ekaiwas has impacted the industry, but not in the way most might think. I would also have concerns over the validity of the JET figures - as they may only be describing one slice of the pie (i.e JET program, which is shrinking for reasons best written about in the Japan forum). The collapses came as a result of bad business practice and over expansion. The market has corrected itself and people are now, rightly, taking the ekaiwa business model with a pinch of salt. I have been in the job market recently and found it very easy to find work. I teach ESP/Business English and am actually having to turn away work because I don't have the space in my schedule. The money is as good as it ever was if not better. Obviously I have experience and qualifications, but therein lies the rub. With the demise of ekaiwas, the type of job they advertised has rightly been viewed as the lowest of the low by the Japanese student. Working for these outfits now pays peanuts, and the conditions are abysmal. In short they reflect the maturity of the industry and the marketability of the individual who pursues those positions. The lower end has become less discerning of who they hire, and the upper end more. That's a good thing, as it might lead to a bit of quality getting in there somewhere!

As for the Uni work: I think it is (thankfully) becoming more choosy of who it hires. Having an unrelated Masters and some unqualified teaching experience should never, ever, make the cut for teaching EAP. Judging by what is being advertised through JALT etc., that seems to be the case now. Obviously there's always going to be the human network element and other variables to consider, but I still believe the basic circumstances for getting those kinds of gigs is changing for the better.

Aside from that, jobs are constantly being advertised, plus agencies supplying fresh young ALTs to public schools have more than taken up the mantle for mainstay EFL employment. Although Japan is never going to be a boom market again, I'm not sure it is hitting the skits in the way some people think.
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