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Obama for re-election
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Cool Teacher,

Great minds? No - just pinko, socialist, Commie, liberal minds, perhaps Very Happy

Regards,
Red John
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EFLeducator



Joined: 16 Dec 2011
Posts: 595
Location: NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnslat wrote:
Dear Cool Teacher,

Great minds? No - just pinko, socialist, Commie, liberal minds, perhaps Very Happy

Regards,
Red John


Romney is gaining ground.
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear EFLeducator,

Well, he certainly makes friends wherever he goes: England, Israel, Poland.

Pew: Obama has big lead; Romney favorability drops (Updated) 8/2/12 4:28 PM

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/08/pew-obama-has-big-lead-romney-favorability-drops-130957.html

WED AUG 01, 2012 AT 06:02 AM PDT
Poll: Obama leads key swing states, nearly 9 in 10 say mind is made up

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/01/1115645/-Poll-Obama-leads-key-swing-states-nearly-9-in-10-say-min

Gaining ground, you say? Where? In China, perhaps Very Happy

Regards,
John
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Steinmann



Joined: 17 Mar 2009
Posts: 255
Location: In the frozen north

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shit. Looks like it's four more years in exile for me.
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear Steinmann,

Not necessarily - I actually survived 5 1/2 years of George W. Bush (mid-2003 through 2008) here in the USA.

Of course, it did get a little tough, living in that hidden safe room, having my food smuggled in to me, etc. But heck, it wasn't all THAT different from being in Saudi Very Happy.

Regards,
John
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

College math course:


"There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.
First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania. There has been good reason for Democrats to sweat this state. True, Obama won it handily in 2008, by 10 points. But it’s a state that is older and whiter and more working-class than most of America. Obama benefited from all the unique circumstances of 2008 that helped him across the country, but if ever there were a state where the “well, we gave the black guy a chance and he blew it” meme might catch on, it’s the Keystone State.

But the jobless rate there is 7.5 percent, well below the national average. Democratic voter registration has held its own. The Philly suburbs have grown. And this odious voter ID law is facing meaningful challenges. A hearing on the law’s validity has just been concluded. A state judge says he’ll rule on the law’s constitutionality the week of Aug. 13. It sounds as if the law’s opponents made a stronger case at the hearing than its supporters. In any case, the losing side will appeal to the state Supreme Court.


But whatever happens with that law, Pennsylvania has been trending back toward Obama lately. He now holds a lead there of nearly seven points, and he’s close to 50. And as I wrote the other day, Nate Silver now gives Barack Obama a slightly better chance of winning Montana than he does Romney of winning Pennsylvania. That tells you something.

The Democrats’ Pennsylvania sweat also had to do with its size—20 electoral votes, tied with Illinois for fifth biggest in the country. Democrats have been able to count on those votes for 20 years. Losing them would be a dagger right in the heart, a maybe irreparable sundering of the party’s electoral coalition. Imagine Republicans losing usually reliable Missouri (10 EV’s) and Arizona (11). Big ouch.

So if Pennsylvania is off the boards, let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states haven’t been called yet: Ohio (1Cool, Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls haven’t closed, or the races are too tight to project just yet—Colorado and Nevada, say. Arizona has just been called for Romney. At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario I’m assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.

So it’s a six-vote Romney edge. They’re feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?

Not really. Let’s look at these West Coast states. Even though they’re still voting in California, obviously Obama is going to win it (55). And equally obviously, he’s going to win Washington (12) and Oregon (7), where neither side even bothered to spend a dime. Throw in Hawaii (4). Those 78 votes haul Obama up to 260. That’s something to keep in mind for election night: Whatever Obama’s number is at 10 pm Eastern, add those 78 EV’s—they’re a mortal lock, and a hefty insurance policy. If he wins Nevada (6) and Colorado (9), it’s over.

In other words, Obama can lose the big Eastern four—Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida: all of ’em!—and still be reelected.

And barring some huge cataclysm, he’s not losing all four of those states. If he wins even one—say Virginia, the smallest of the four—then Romney has to win Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire; all possible, certainly, but all states where he has been behind, narrowly but consistently, for weeks or months.

The list of states where Obama holds that narrow but consistent lead is long: Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Michigan and Wisconsin are no longer really narrow. Florida is more or less a dead heat. The bottom line is that of the dozen or so key swing states, Romney leads only in one: North Carolina. And that lead developed only over the summer. We’ll see whether the Democrats’ decision to convene in Charlotte has any impact on Romney’s three-point margin.

It’s beginning to look like Obama can lose the big Eastern four—Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida: all of ’em!—and still be reelected.
All this explains the interesting little chart toward the lower right-hand corner of Nate Silver’s home page, headed “Electoral Vote Distribution.” It rates the probability that Obama receives a certain number of electoral votes. Most outcomes, in a range running from 150 EV’s up to 400, rate around a 2 percent chance of Obama receiving that number. The highest spike on the chart? It’s at around 330 EV’s, which Silver reckons Obama has a 14 percent chance of hitting. Now, most political journalists would chuckle derisively at the idea that Obama is going to carry home 330 EV’s. Deride away. And while you do, bear in mind that Silver called 50 out of 51 states last time (counting D.C.; he missed only Indiana) and every single Senate race.

Sure, something big could happen to alter the dynamic completely. But we’ve watched these guys go, what, six or seven rounds now (out of 15). After seven rounds, you can pretty well tell some things. All the supposedly game-changing events of the last few weeks haven’t changed much of anything. This is a paradoxical situation that has little or no modern precedent, which makes it hard for people to accept. Liberals are too nervous to think it, reporters too intent on a “down to the wire” narrative, and conservatives too furious and disbelieving, but it’s shaping up to be true: An extremely close election that on election night itself stands a surprisingly good chance of being not that close at all."

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/04/michael-tomasky-on-the-possible-coming-obama-landslide.html
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Cool Teacher



Joined: 18 May 2009
Posts: 930
Location: Here, There and Everywhere! :D

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steinmann wrote:
Shit. Looks like it's four more years in exile for me.


I don't understand. Shocked If you saw your country going bas by your own beliefs then why would you run away rather than stay and fight for your ideas? Confused

Maybe you have never heard of Thomas Paine but if you did then you would learn that he had some good words for those who didn't want to just run away when things got bad.

Here is what he said. Harken ye hither:



thomas paine wrote:
These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.


He says that if you beleive in your country you don't scuttle away at the face of adversity you stay and you fight and you believe and you try because a man who only hangs about for the good stuff when the sun is shining is not a principled man but just a "sunshine patriot". More difficult to do it when things are against you. Cool

If you live abroad for other reasons then no problem but if you live abroad because you hate the predisent then weird-o-rama! Confused Cool
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EFLeducator



Joined: 16 Dec 2011
Posts: 595
Location: NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cool Teacher wrote:
I don't understand. Shocked If you saw your country going bas by your own beliefs then why would you run away rather than stay and fight for your ideas? Confused


Please. People aren't going to change what is going on in the U.S. or any other country. Real change would require that almost ALL of the citizens would have to RISE up against their governments. Not going to happen. U.S. citizens only care about when their reality, white trash, overweight, drug infested reality TV shows are coming on.

Only one or all of the following would cause U.S. citizens to RISE.

1. Try and take their Facebook away.

2. Try and take their guns away.

3. Try and take away their fatty, greasy, fast food which is the staple of their diets.

Times are a LITTLE different now than when Mr. Paine was alive. The government has bigger and better guns and the citizens care about NOTHING, not even themselves so why would one think they care about their country??

Same thing going on in Mexico. Their country is falling apart but as long as soccer is on TV and there is a party going on, no one blinks an eye.
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Cool Teacher



Joined: 18 May 2009
Posts: 930
Location: Here, There and Everywhere! :D

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EFLeducator wrote:
Cool Teacher wrote:
I don't understand. Shocked If you saw your country going bas by your own beliefs then why would you run away rather than stay and fight for your ideas? Confused


Please. People aren't going to change what is going on in the U.S. or any other country. Real change would require that almost ALL of the citizens would have to RISE up against their governments. Not going to happen. U.S. citizens only care about when their reality, white trash, overweight, drug infested reality TV shows are coming on.

Only one or all of the following would cause U.S. citizens to RISE.

1. Try and take their Facebook away.

2. Try and take their guns away.

3. Try and take away their fatty, greasy, fast food which is the staple of their diets.

Times are a LITTLE different now than when Mr. Paine was alive. The government has bigger and better guns and the citizens care about NOTHING, not even themselves so why would one think they care about their country??

Same thing going on in Mexico. Their country is falling apart but as long as soccer is on TV and there is a party going on, no one blinks an eye.


Well if thats true then it doenst matter who is presdent and your man need not live abrosd. If we feel that way then we may as well accept that it makes no difference who is predisnt because Obama and Romney won't change anythng. Cool I kinda think that anyway. Wink
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Cool Teacher



Joined: 18 May 2009
Posts: 930
Location: Here, There and Everywhere! :D

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually wehn I think more about it I really think that Romney has no idea what he's doing and is some weirdo out there who miht destroy America by accident because if he tried to work out America he would destroy it too. Shocked
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear EFLeducator,

I don't think 3 1/2 years of Obama caused all (or any) of the things about the USA that you're complaining about.

I also don't think that were Romney to be elected, that would change all (or any) of the things you're complaining about.

What I can't understand is this: if you find the people in the USA so terrible, why would you even want to live here or even care who's President?

Regards,
John
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EFLeducator



Joined: 16 Dec 2011
Posts: 595
Location: NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnslat wrote:
I don't think 3 1/2 years of Obama caused all (or any) of the things about the USA that you're complaining about.


I never said he was the cause. I did not even mention "why" Americans are trashy and care about nothing.

johnslat wrote:
I also don't think that were Romney to be elected, that would change all (or any) of the things you're complaining about.


Of course he wouldn't change anything. Everyone knows that the President is not the one running the show. Corporations run the country.


johnslat wrote:
if you find the people in the USA so terrible, why would you even want to live here or even care who's President?


People everywhere are terrible in their own way amigo.This is a universal and therefore cannot be hidden from. I avoid those who do not respect themselves. Simple really.

P.S. I'm not complaining, just bringing up FACTS.

FAIR...AND BALANCED.
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear ESLeducator,

"People everywhere are terrible in their own way amigo."

Now, I've been on this planet for only 69 1/2 years, have travelled to only a few dozen countries and almost all the states in the USA. So, based just on my limited experience, I'd say your opinion above is both unfair and unbalanced.

In fact, I'd call it the generalization of a very bitter misanthropist .

Are there terrible people? Most certainly. Can anyone do terrible things? Probably, but most, I'd say, don't.

Regards,
John
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EFLeducator



Joined: 16 Dec 2011
Posts: 595
Location: NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnslat wrote:
I'd say your opinion above is both unfair and unbalanced.

In fact, I'd call it the generalization of a very bitter misanthropis
t .



That's YOUR OPINION. Nothing generalizing about presenting FACTS nor is it bitter. Seeing how things and PEOPLE really are is not being bitter. I'm actually pretty happy these days but I do not try and sugar coat the REALITY about how people really are in general.

BYT...I may have spoken too soon about there being no difference between Romney and Obama. Check out the latest FACTS I'll be posting on the Romney next President thread in a few minutes.

FAIR...AND BALANCED.








Cool
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear EFLeducator,

Of course it's my opinion - that's why I wrote "I'd say" and "I'd call it."

Would you kindly point out all the facts below:

"Please. People aren't going to change what is going on in the U.S. or any other country. Real change would require that almost ALL of the citizens would have to RISE up against their governments. Not going to happen. U.S. citizens only care about when their reality, white trash, overweight, drug infested reality TV shows are coming on.

Only one or all of the following would cause U.S. citizens to RISE.

1. Try and take their Facebook away.

2. Try and take their guns away.

3. Try and take away their fatty, greasy, fast food which is the staple of their diets.

Times are a LITTLE different now than when Mr. Paine was alive. The government has bigger and better guns and the citizens care about NOTHING, not even themselves so why would one think they care about their country??

Same thing going on in Mexico. Their country is falling apart but as long as soccer is on TV and there is a party going on, no one blinks an eye.

I'll get you started with the only one I could find: " The government has bigger and better guns . . ." - which, by the way, makes owning an AK47 to fight when the government gets frisky so downright dumb.

Regards,
John
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