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Explosion in TEFL numbers
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Perilla



Joined: 09 Jul 2010
Posts: 792
Location: Hong Kong

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:51 am    Post subject: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

With escalating unemployment among Western graduates (as if it wasn't high enough already!) there's likely to be a large increase in the number going into TEFL. Such a rise should be assisted as interest in learning English also increases as people have to boost their credentials to find work (hence, for example, plenty of TEFL work in Spain despite the collapsing economy).

Just wondering whether anyone out there has noted a rising trend of TEFL arrivals, whether newbies or career switchers?
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Sashadroogie



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Posts: 11061
Location: Moskva, The Workers' Paradise

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haven't noticed any significant changes in Moscow. But then the 'credit crunch' didn't hit here as hard as other places, and the visa barriers keep a lot of would-be TEFLers away.
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tttompatz



Joined: 06 Mar 2010
Posts: 1951
Location: Talibon, Bohol, Philippines

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In my personal experience the only places that have seen an increase in applications are places like Korea (who pay for the airfare up front).

The large majority of (new) US grads can't afford the ticket and setup costs to head abroad on the speculation of finding an entry level job in ESL.

That said, places like Asia will absorb far more applicants than are willing to travel anyway. At last estimate the number of job openings each year in Asia alone exceeds 150,000 for legal jobs (college grads with a degree) with mainland China seeing demand in the 50-60 thousand job openings per year (and growing) at the entry level with retention rates of 40% year on year (SAFEA numbers).

In China, with a population of about 240 million school age children and a ratio of 1 foreign teacher per thousand children they could easily absorb a quarter million teachers without batting an eye.

Numbers of teachers (government estimates/stats):
China 50k
Korea 25k
Taiwan 10k
Japan 10k
Thailand 15k legal and an estimated 15k illegal
Indonesia 5-10k
The rest of East Asia 10-15k)

The economy in the US and parts of Western Europe may suck donkey *beep* but most of Asia hardly slowed down.

ASEAN 600 million souls and economic size of 4 trillion USD.
China 1.33 billion souls and economic size of 11 trillion USD
Korea/Japan/Taiwan 220 million souls and economic size of 7 trillion USD
India 1.2 billion souls and economic size of 4.5 trillion USD

There is more than ample room for sustained growth in the 6-10% range/anum and double digit growth based just on increasing consumerism in their own economies is certainly achievable without real concern for the western markets to necessitate growth.

.
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:43 am    Post subject: Re: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

Perilla wrote:
Such a rise should be assisted as interest in learning English also increases as people have to boost their credentials to find work (hence, for example, plenty of TEFL work in Spain despite the collapsing economy).
That assumes the foreign country actually recognizes the need to join the international English speaking community. Japan fails in that.

Quote:
Just wondering whether anyone out there has noted a rising trend of TEFL arrivals, whether newbies or career switchers?
Nope, not here.
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scholar



Joined: 18 May 2012
Posts: 159

PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The number of mid-career people who would be willing/able to up stakes and go abroad to teach will always be miniscule, no matter the condition of the economy, unless it came to a Great Depression situation. Americans have such a sense of entitlement that one trip to Ikea per month, rather than 2, would be a major sacrifice.

New grads might move in greater numbers. However, most still hope to get a foothold in the Western job market, so this number, too, will stay small. And eventually, if the prospects for new grads remain bleak, young people will stop going to university in as great of numbers and instead choose more vocational occupations.
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naturegirl321



Joined: 04 May 2003
Posts: 9041
Location: home sweet home

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've noticed stagnant salaries coupled with a rise in cost of living and recruiters still claiming long gone exchange rates. Pay cuts at my uni while expectations have risen. So now with a PhD you can earn what you used to be able to with a BA.

Doesn't help that recruiters tout how easy it is to get a job here and that teaching is a cake walk either, so there are tons of applicants. However, I guess the economy always has its ups and downs, so I'm hoping this will come to an end soon.
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scholar



Joined: 18 May 2012
Posts: 159

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 1:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One more thing to note: I cold foresee more people wanting to teach in China, not because of the economy but because of the high conditions offered and the good culture.
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Prof.Gringo



Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

scholar wrote:
One more thing to note: I cold foresee more people wanting to teach in China, not because of the economy but because of the high conditions offered and the good culture.


Esp. the cute girls...Chinitas muy bonitas Twisted Evil
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Perilla



Joined: 09 Jul 2010
Posts: 792
Location: Hong Kong

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:48 am    Post subject: Re: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
That assumes the foreign country actually recognizes the need to join the international English speaking community. Japan fails in that.


No, it assumes that the country's employers recognise English ability as a useful asset in an employee.

Naturegirl and tttompatzz's responses are interesting. The latter indicates there are heaps of TEFL jobs in Asia, with room for expansion, while NG's suggests the downside to the rising trend of applicants - an employers' market and lower salaries.
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tttompatz



Joined: 06 Mar 2010
Posts: 1951
Location: Talibon, Bohol, Philippines

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 5:08 am    Post subject: Re: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

Perilla wrote:
Glenski wrote:
That assumes the foreign country actually recognizes the need to join the international English speaking community. Japan fails in that.


No, it assumes that the country's employers recognise English ability as a useful asset in an employee.

Naturegirl and tttompatzz's responses are interesting. The latter indicates there are heaps of TEFL jobs in Asia, with room for expansion, while NG's suggests the downside to the rising trend of applicants - an employers' market and lower salaries.


I think we addressed different sides of the market (entry level vs academia) and she is talking about a specific (high competition) niche within a single country rather than continental trends at the entry level where, due to increasing qualification requirements, the available labor pool is not that large compared to demand.

.
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Steinmann



Joined: 17 Mar 2009
Posts: 255
Location: In the frozen north

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prof.Gringo wrote:
scholar wrote:
One more thing to note: I cold foresee more people wanting to teach in China, not because of the economy but because of the high conditions offered and the good culture.


Esp. the cute girls...Chinitas muy bonitas Twisted Evil


Seconded.
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Steinmann



Joined: 17 Mar 2009
Posts: 255
Location: In the frozen north

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:25 am    Post subject: Re: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

tttompatz wrote:
Perilla wrote:
Glenski wrote:
That assumes the foreign country actually recognizes the need to join the international English speaking community. Japan fails in that.


No, it assumes that the country's employers recognise English ability as a useful asset in an employee.

Naturegirl and tttompatzz's responses are interesting. The latter indicates there are heaps of TEFL jobs in Asia, with room for expansion, while NG's suggests the downside to the rising trend of applicants - an employers' market and lower salaries.


I think we addressed different sides of the market (entry level vs academia) and she is talking about a specific (high competition) niche within a single country rather than continental trends at the entry level where, due to increasing qualification requirements, the available labor pool is not that large compared to demand.

.


So those of us who have more specific qualifications can expect to enjoy continued availability of employment, then?
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Glenski



Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:26 am    Post subject: Re: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

Perilla wrote:
Glenski wrote:
That assumes the foreign country actually recognizes the need to join the international English speaking community. Japan fails in that.


No, it assumes that the country's employers recognise English ability as a useful asset in an employee.
How much do you know the Japanese market? My statement holds.

J students are not going abroad for studies as much because they don't want to miss out on local hiring. J employers stress TOEIC scores for hiring, promotions, and overseas transfers, yet Japanese have abysmal TOEIC scores and English ability. J employers don't really pressure grads for that much English ability or even high academic success because they only look at the school's name and presumed reputation, then go with teachers' recommendations, and end up molding newbies into the image they want.

Can't say about other countries.
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tttompatz



Joined: 06 Mar 2010
Posts: 1951
Location: Talibon, Bohol, Philippines

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:36 am    Post subject: Re: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

Steinmann wrote:
So those of us who have more specific qualifications can expect to enjoy continued availability of employment, then?


Actually, no.

As people decided to stay rather than hit and run after a year or two they look beyond the glass ceiling and add (usually the bare minimum) credentials to move up.

This has the effect, as naturegirl is noticing, of increasing competition in academia and driving the remuneration packages down.

On the other hand, if you have the ability to move into administration consulting, or upper levels of the regular school systems there is far less competition and very nice remuneration packages.

Guest lecturer positions (especially with just an MA, doubly so with an unrelated MA) at a university is becoming much more competitive and packages are going down whereas long-stay positions in top level international, bilingual or English program schools for qualified individuals pay well and the competition from properly qualified individuals isn't that fierce.

There will ALWAYS (in the foreseeable future) be loads and loads of entry level ESL/EFL jobs for anyone wanting to take them and because the number of jobs significantly outnumber the qualified (in the eyes of the various immigration and other government services involved) applicants the remuneration packages are stable (Thailand 35-50k) or rising (China (from 2500 to 15000 over the last decade)).

Yes, there are exceptions:
Korea dropped about 5000 jobs from their peak in 2008 and salaries have, in the local economy stayed pretty much stable (2.0-2.4m won) but the currency fluctuation has caused some consternation for those who need to send money home.

Japan has experienced a similar trend but still employs many thousands of "teachers" at the entry level.

.
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Perilla



Joined: 09 Jul 2010
Posts: 792
Location: Hong Kong

PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:50 am    Post subject: Re: Explosion in TEFL numbers Reply with quote

Glenski wrote:
Perilla wrote:
Glenski wrote:
That assumes the foreign country actually recognizes the need to join the international English speaking community. Japan fails in that.


No, it assumes that the country's employers recognise English ability as a useful asset in an employee.
How much do you know the Japanese market? My statement holds.


Glenski, you are misinterpreting my original point and my response to your post. I'm not talking about Japan - I'm sure you know the Japan scene better than I do.

I simply mean that on the whole, employers will see a potential employee's English ability as an asset. Consequently, generally speaking, when the local job market goes downhill there tends to be more TEFL work available.
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