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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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 Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:12 am Post subject: |
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| The problem doesn't really disappear with the addition of alternative sources. Ramping up production is just one issue. Th rise in demand will be another. Anyway, alternative oil reserves only pushes things back a short way and continues the problem of global warming. Not to mention the pollution and degradation that comes from processing, etc... |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 5:20 am Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| The problem doesn't really disappear with the addition of alternative sources. Ramping up production is just one issue. Th rise in demand will be another. Anyway, alternative oil reserves only pushes things back a short way and continues the problem of global warming. Not to mention the pollution and degradation that comes from processing, etc... |
You're dragging a couple issues into the argument. I didn't thing we were talking about global warming, just a lack of oil. Dwindling energy means we need an alternative source. The problem then disappears if there is an adequate alternative source, no? |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:28 am Post subject: |
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| I'm bringing nothing into anything. How can you possibly deal with oil supply and not discuss warming? We must always keep in mind the multiple fronts of the coming storm. To do otherwise is to spit into the wind. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| I'm bringing nothing into anything. How can you possibly deal with oil supply and not discuss warming? We must always keep in mind the multiple fronts of the coming storm. To do otherwise is to spit into the wind. |
| Quote: |
"If we run out of fossil fuels -- by the time the oil price hits 100 dollars or plus, people will be screaming for alternatives, but whether they will be available at that moment of time -- that's my biggest worry," Hoff said.
"That's why we need to use fossil fuels in a more efficient way to have some more time to develop these alternatives up to a level where the robustness is guaranteed and their price has come down ... This could take decades for some technologies." |
This seems to be the issue behind the article. It's the peak oil threat. High oil makes plentiful oil sands profitable. End of problem. |
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W.T.Carl
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 4:20 pm Post subject: |
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Alcohol is the answer. I think I'll have another drink  |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
I hope you're right, bb, but I think you're wrong. 
You don't think that new guy in Iran or Chavez in Venezuela wouldn't take a whack at the US/EU if he thought he could get away with it? A year or so ago China turned off the oil spigott to the North. What do you think would happen if any one of the oil exporters said they were considering shutting down production for just 3 days? The price of oil would blow right through the $100 a barrel level. |
Regionalism, nationalism are powerful motivating factors to be sure. But I think the globalization of the financial markets pretty much prevent anyone from profiting themselves from withholding oil. Think about it, if Iran stops pumping oil, they lose the profits they need to pay pensioners, but meanwhile the price goes up so that means more profits for its hated neighbor, Saudi Arabia, and its wary ally, Russia.
Human nature is the same as in the 1970s, but the way the forces of nationalism work within the global framework is not. It would take multiple nations working together to buck the system, and for those reasons of regional and national difference, I do not see this scenario as particularly likely either. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 6:00 pm Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| The problem doesn't really disappear with the addition of alternative sources. Ramping up production is just one issue. Th rise in demand will be another. Anyway, alternative oil reserves only pushes things back a short way and continues the problem of global warming. Not to mention the pollution and degradation that comes from processing, etc... |
Sugar-cane brought to the refinery from already existing cropland would not increase carbon emissions. The difference between oil from the ground and 'biofuels' is oil from the ground is carbon taken from beneath the earth, and from out of the system, whereas 'biofuels' are produced using carbon already taken from the atmosphere and soil. In other words, 'biofuels' do emit a comparable amount of carbon, but they also have already absorbed from the environment what they emit.
Now, should more deforestation occur to harvest more sugarcane, then it would start to adversely affect the environment.
I think sugar-cane is a good medium-term measure until we can find true alternative sources. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2007 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| The problem doesn't really disappear with the addition of alternative sources. Ramping up production is just one issue. Th rise in demand will be another. Anyway, alternative oil reserves only pushes things back a short way and continues the problem of global warming. Not to mention the pollution and degradation that comes from processing, etc... |
Sugar-cane brought to the refinery from already existing cropland would not increase carbon emissions. The difference between oil from the ground and 'biofuels' is oil from the ground is carbon taken from beneath the earth, and from out of the system, whereas 'biofuels' are produced using carbon already taken from the atmosphere and soil. In other words, 'biofuels' do emit a comparable amount of carbon, but they also have already absorbed from the environment what they emit.
Now, should more deforestation occur to harvest more sugarcane, then it would start to adversely affect the environment.
I think sugar-cane is a good medium-term measure until we can find true alternative sources. |
I literally was referring to digging up more petroleum. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
I literally was referring to digging up more petroleum. |
Okay but so what. Brazil rather rapidly transformed its economy to a ethanol-based economy. The USA can't do that same? The crux of the argument is oil will run out before a technology like ethanol can come online. But I think it's been demonstrated you can do it rather quickly on a massive scale. If the Brazilians, some of the most backward f'd up people on the planet, can do it, the USA could do it. Right? |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 7:19 pm Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| I'm bringing nothing into anything. How can you possibly deal with oil supply and not discuss warming? We must always keep in mind the multiple fronts of the coming storm. To do otherwise is to spit into the wind. |
| Quote: |
"If we run out of fossil fuels -- by the time the oil price hits 100 dollars or plus, people will be screaming for alternatives, but whether they will be available at that moment of time -- that's my biggest worry," Hoff said.
"That's why we need to use fossil fuels in a more efficient way to have some more time to develop these alternatives up to a level where the robustness is guaranteed and their price has come down ... This could take decades for some technologies." |
You're going in circles. End of problem for whom? Not me: it's sapping my buying power and savings ability. End for whom? More oil being burned equals greater disequilibrium in the climate.
Etc.
This seems to be the issue behind the article. It's the peak oil threat. High oil makes plentiful oil sands profitable. End of problem. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| EFLtrainer wrote: |
I literally was referring to digging up more petroleum. |
Okay but so what. Brazil rather rapidly transformed its economy to a ethanol-based economy. The USA can't do that same? The crux of the argument is oil will run out before a technology like ethanol can come online. But I think it's been demonstrated you can do it rather quickly on a massive scale. If the Brazilians, some of the most backward f'd up people on the planet, can do it, the USA could do it. Right? |
Awful lot of if's in there. The US is the single most developed (I'm speaking literally in terms of tons of infrastructure, etc.,) nation in the world. The shift will be far more complex and costly - who holds the reigns of power? Haliburton, et. al. - than for Brazil. Regardless, burning more petroleum really isn't the answer for anyone. Thus, it's a non-answer. Any answer lies in the other areas of production, not oil production. |
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mindmetoo
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| mindmetoo wrote: |
| EFLtrainer wrote: |
I literally was referring to digging up more petroleum. |
Okay but so what. Brazil rather rapidly transformed its economy to a ethanol-based economy. The USA can't do that same? The crux of the argument is oil will run out before a technology like ethanol can come online. But I think it's been demonstrated you can do it rather quickly on a massive scale. If the Brazilians, some of the most backward f'd up people on the planet, can do it, the USA could do it. Right? |
Awful lot of if's in there. The US is the single most developed (I'm speaking literally in terms of tons of infrastructure, etc.,) nation in the world. The shift will be far more complex and costly - who holds the reigns of power? Haliburton, et. al. - than for Brazil. Regardless, burning more petroleum really isn't the answer for anyone. Thus, it's a non-answer. Any answer lies in the other areas of production, not oil production. |
Well, the glory of the free market is if gas gets too expensive, the free market will provide alternatives, like ethanol or biodiesel. No one will let the US economy grind to a halt. |
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EFLtrainer
Joined: 04 May 2005
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| Posted: Fri Feb 23, 2007 6:00 am Post subject: |
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| mindmetoo wrote: |
| EFLtrainer wrote: |
| mindmetoo wrote: |
| EFLtrainer wrote: |
I literally was referring to digging up more petroleum. |
Okay but so what. Brazil rather rapidly transformed its economy to a ethanol-based economy. The USA can't do that same? The crux of the argument is oil will run out before a technology like ethanol can come online. But I think it's been demonstrated you can do it rather quickly on a massive scale. If the Brazilians, some of the most backward f'd up people on the planet, can do it, the USA could do it. Right? |
Awful lot of if's in there. The US is the single most developed (I'm speaking literally in terms of tons of infrastructure, etc.,) nation in the world. The shift will be far more complex and costly - who holds the reigns of power? Haliburton, et. al. - than for Brazil. Regardless, burning more petroleum really isn't the answer for anyone. Thus, it's a non-answer. Any answer lies in the other areas of production, not oil production. |
Well, the glory of the free market is if gas gets too expensive, the free market will provide alternatives, like ethanol or biodiesel. No one will let the US economy grind to a halt. |
Ain't Utopia grand? Or have you not noticed just how willing "the free market" is to kill it's labor? From the time of the Pharoas to now, civilization has been built on the blood of the poor and the workers. 3k dead for oil in Iraq and you still don't get it?
Wake up. |
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