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Who believes North Korea and South Korea will reunite?
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pkang0202



Joined: 09 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Economically, its not going to happen for a while. Someone touched on it earlier, the North is broke as a joke and the South has its hands full with their own economy. South Korea is in no way able to shoulder the burden of reunification. Of course, I'm sure the US would be more than happy to lend a helping hand. That gets us in to the Political issues.

China does not want a very close US ally right at their doorstep. North Korea is the buffer between China and US influence. If reunification DID happen, the US would be right there to lend a helping hand. Not only to gain brownie points from the rest of the world, but also to gain a strategic edge. You can bet that along with money, the US is gonna drop a couple military bases in North Korea. China will do everything they can to prevent that.

Also, on the surface Koreans want reunification but I know deep down they would like to maintain the status quo. The people who can remember their families in the North are all old and dying. The new generation doesn't have the emotional or familial ties to the North.


Finally:

If, and this is a BIG if, reunification is successful then in the long run Korea can be as successful as Japan. Korea can serve as a pivotal international trade hub. Look where it is geographically.
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MissSeoul



Joined: 25 Oct 2006
Location: Somewhere in America

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Korea will united one day, but first we have to wait KJI to die, then old military leader will take over power in North and we have to wait this guy to die, then the next leader will be much younger/new generation and this generation will look at the possibility of unification more realistically, this will be just begining.
How long it will take from here to actual unification, that's not sure.

United Korea will be much close to China than U.S and maybe U.S not happy for that, U.S can become x-factor of unification of Korea.
I want U.S military leave korea one day and U.S influence on Korea be minimize before true unification process start.
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Yo!Chingo



Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Location: Seoul Korea

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 10:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The fact that there will be millions of starved and unemployable people literally falling all over themselves to get the "Golden" South has been touched on by other posters here. There's no way that the South could or every would be able to help a quarter of them. Again they have their own problems. Unification can only happen when KJI is long gone, and the NK people b/c much more educated/employable than they are right now.

If unification would happen before then SK would go straight down the drain Crying or Very sad
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ajgeddes



Joined: 28 Apr 2004
Location: Yongsan

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MissSeoul wrote:
Korea will united one day, but first we have to wait KJI to die, then old military leader will take over power in North and we have to wait this guy to die, then the next leader will be much younger/new generation and this generation will look at the possibility of unification more realistically, this will be just begining.
How long it will take from here to actual unification, that's not sure.

United Korea will be much close to China than U.S and maybe U.S not happy for that, U.S can become x-factor of unification of Korea.
I want U.S military leave korea one day and U.S influence on Korea be minimize before true unification process start.


Is it hard somedays to get yourself to write in such crap English while on other days you write in perfect English? Or is trolling just that much fun?
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Alyallen



Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Location: The 4th Greatest Place on Earth = Jeonju!!!

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pkang0202 wrote:
Economically, its not going to happen for a while. Someone touched on it earlier, the North is broke as a joke and the South has its hands full with their own economy. South Korea is in no way able to shoulder the burden of reunification. Of course, I'm sure the US would be more than happy to lend a helping hand. That gets us in to the Political issues.

China does not want a very close US ally right at their doorstep. North Korea is the buffer between China and US influence. If reunification DID happen, the US would be right there to lend a helping hand. Not only to gain brownie points from the rest of the world, but also to gain a strategic edge. You can bet that along with money, the US is gonna drop a couple military bases in North Korea. China will do everything they can to prevent that.

Also, on the surface Koreans want reunification but I know deep down they would like to maintain the status quo. The people who can remember their families in the North are all old and dying. The new generation doesn't have the emotional or familial ties to the North.


Finally:

If, and this is a BIG if, reunification is successful then in the long run Korea can be as successful as Japan. Korea can serve as a pivotal international trade hub. Look where it is geographically.


This makes a lot of sense to me.

I don't think South Koreans really want this to happen. It would totally tank their economy....
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YoshaMazov



Joined: 10 May 2007
Location: Suwon

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While the North currently boasts one of the worst economies in the world, reunification would bring billions upon billions of dollars (pounds, euros, etc) of aid almost instantly. And, of course, despite all the aid, the North would still be facing an uphill climb thanks to Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung. Continental Europe was in ruins following World War II, yet the Marshall Plan helped rebuild the western half.
And although I'd largely agree that China wouldn't be gung-ho about a united Korea, I don't see the US installing military bases near the Yalu. There simply isn't any strategic advantage. America won't go to war with China, as their economies are becoming more intertwined every year.
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Alyallen



Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Location: The 4th Greatest Place on Earth = Jeonju!!!

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YoshaMazov wrote:
While the North currently boasts one of the worst economies in the world, reunification would bring billions upon billions of dollars (pounds, euros, etc) of aid almost instantly. And, of course, despite all the aid, the North would still be facing an uphill climb thanks to Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung. Continental Europe was in ruins following World War II, yet the Marshall Plan helped rebuild the western half.
And although I'd largely agree that China wouldn't be gung-ho about a united Korea, I don't see the US installing military bases near the Yalu. There simply isn't any strategic advantage. America won't go to war with China, as their economies are becoming more intertwined every year.


Billions in aid won't help people who are already experiencing the side effects of malnutrition and cult-like brainwashing. Never mind that the education system would be a mess so the North will have a long while to wait before producing productive members of society.

WWII left Europe in ruins but it didn't destroy the social and educational system the way unification will for the North. The country will have to rewire the way they think and see themselves and their country and to do that without KJI will not be pretty....BUT....to be fair, S. Korea managed so perhaps the North can too?
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Saxiif



Joined: 15 May 2003
Location: Seongnam

PostPosted: Tue May 29, 2007 11:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well NKeans aren't quite as uneducated as people make out, they can at least read and write and the elite has a good bit of education.

Also I'm not sure if China wants NKorea, it would just be a masstive money sink for them as much as anyone. China probably likes the status quo just fine (its cheap, its a good buffer and having KJI on a leash gives them a good bargaining chip wit hthe US). If KJI dies I'm sure they'll support some random general and pay what it takes to prop him up and the South will probably go along since the South doesn't want 10 million North Koreans living in ghettos around Seoul.

The ideal would probably be a high but manageable level of immigration southwards (50,000/year?), a relatively sane military government in the north and enough aid to keep the northerners from starving.
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YoshaMazov



Joined: 10 May 2007
Location: Suwon

PostPosted: Wed May 30, 2007 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Nazis brainwashed the German people throughout the 1930s and 40s, yet there wasn't much of a post-WWII Nazi resurgence, and the Hitler salute remains illegal in Germany to this day.
Once the North Koreans actually see what the rest of the world is like the cult of personality will begin to disintegrate (of course, a free press is critical to this happening, hence all the censorship in DPRK). The years after reunification will undoubtedly be an exceptionally trying period for the Korean people, but eventually things will improve. While I don't have much confidence in any government, whether it be American, Korean or Chinese, I have to think the world won't let what happened to Russia happen to North Korea.
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safeblad



Joined: 17 Jul 2006

PostPosted: Wed May 30, 2007 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saxiif wrote:
Well NKeans aren't quite as uneducated as people make out, they can at least read and write and the elite has a good bit of education.


im not so sure, outside of pyeongyang, life is a fight for survival, i think that making sure you can eat that day is going to be a greater importance than education, the same as every country with a starving population. Sure there is an educated elite, they did make a nuke, even though it might have been a dud. I think both the N Koreans and the S Koreans would be uncomfortable about this elite playing a substantial role in any reunification, maybe they dont have much choice though, its going to take a lot of forgiveness all round.

Some things are certain, they will lack education in certain areas: IT, obviously, your average North Korean is going to be lost in a PC bang. Economics, duh!.... For gawds sake these poor people are going to need to take lessons in free thought.

Kim Jong Il has invited limited investment from the south and the north because he has absolutely zero confidence in his own people to do things right.

who knows!
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MissSeoul



Joined: 25 Oct 2006
Location: Somewhere in America

PostPosted: Wed May 30, 2007 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajgeddes wrote:
MissSeoul wrote:
Korea will united one day, but first we have to wait KJI to die, then old military leader will take over power in North and we have to wait this guy to die, then the next leader will be much younger/new generation and this generation will look at the possibility of unification more realistically, this will be just begining.
How long it will take from here to actual unification, that's not sure.

United Korea will be much close to China than U.S and maybe U.S not happy for that, U.S can become x-factor of unification of Korea.
I want U.S military leave korea one day and U.S influence on Korea be minimize before true unification process start.


Is it hard somedays to get yourself to write in such crap English while on other days you write in perfect English? Or is trolling just that much fun?



I understand very well what you say.
Somedays I write in perfect english while on other days my writing is such crap. My english education ended when I graduate highschool, I didn't study english in college years.
Then marriage/pregnant in U.S with a Swedish American husband helped me to improve my english again, but it's speaking not writing....
A lots speaking opportunity in everyday life, but no writing chance/opportunity as a housewife.
The main reason I am on this forum is try to practice my writing, but I feel it doesn't go anywhere, it's frustrating Wink
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merkurix



Joined: 21 Dec 2006
Location: Not far from the deep end.

PostPosted: Wed May 30, 2007 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The little piece of land north of South Korea called North Korea is the first step to restoring Korea to its former splendid glory. And someday:

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Newbie



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed May 30, 2007 11:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would love to see it happen. Just so those whiney, immature Korean punks on the net (not all Koreans fit this bill. Not even a good number of em), can all eat crow when they realize that the South's success was indeed a result of American influence and that, despite what they read on the internet, a united Korea would not be a world power.

It would seriously bring a much needed levity in pride to this country.
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