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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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 Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 8:48 pm Post subject: Mexican Immigration Will Solve Itself |
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Fertility data suggest that the international migration picture is about to change.
babyAs the debate over illegal immigration from Mexico rages in Washington and across the country, and as the administration�s reform bill hangs by a thread, few Americans are aware that this problem is on track to decline, and will eventually become a vague memory.
There has been a stunning decline in the fertility rate in Mexico, which means that, in a few years, there will not be nearly as many teenagers in Mexico looking for work in the United States or anywhere else. If this trend in the fertility rate continues, Mexico will resemble Japan and Italy�rapidly aging populations with too few young workers to support the economy.
According to the World Bank�s 2007 Annual Development Indicators, in 1990 Mexico had a total lifetime fertility rate of 3.3 children per female, but by 2005, that number had fallen by 36 percent to 2.1, which is the �break even� point for population stability in developed nations. The large number of women currently in their reproductive years means that there are still quite a few babies, but as this group ages, the number of infants will decline sharply. If this trend toward fewer children continues, there being no apparent reason for it to cease, the number of young people in the Mexican population will decline significantly just when the number of elderly is rising. As labor markets in Mexico tighten and wage rates rise, far fewer Mexican youngsters will be interested in coming to the United States. Since our baby boomers will be retiring at the same time, we could face a severe labor shortage.
Some politicians fear that we are being �Mexicanized.� In fact the opposite may be underway.
There have been significant declines in fertility rates across Latin America, but Mexico�s has been unusually sharp. In El Salvador, another source of U.S. immigrants, the rate declined from 3.7 in 1990 to 2.5 by 2005. Guatemala is now at 4.3, but that is far lower than it was in 1990. Jamaica, another source of U.S. immigrants, has fallen from 2.9 to 2.4 over the same period. Chile and Costa Rica, at 2.0, are actually slightly below a replacement rate. Trinidad and Tobago, at 1.6, is well below ZPG. For all of Latin American and the Caribbean, a rate of 3.2 in 1990 fell to 2.4 in 2005, a decline of 25 percent. This means less pressure on the United States from illegal immigrants from the entire area, not just from Mexico. A powerful demographic transition is well underway, and soon many of these countries may be worried about there being too few babies rather than too many. We may miss this labor, and wonder how we will replace it.
What has changed? Better education and improved job opportunities for women mean that it has become quite expensive for them to leave the labor force to have more children. The improved availability of birth control technology and liberalization of abortion rules in some countries mean that it is easier for women to avoid that outcome.
Another reason for the particularly sharp decline in Mexico is the cultural influence of the United States. Some politicians fear that we are being �Mexicanized.� In fact the opposite may be underway. NAFTA, our mass media, the more widespread use of English, and the large number of people going back and forth (legally or otherwise) mean that Mexicans are increasingly influenced by our culture, and that implies fewer babies, The United States also has a fertility rate of 2.1, but that is the same as it was in 1990. Mexico is becoming more similar to the United States, which must frustrate their nationalists.
The main point for the United States is that we have only a temporary problem with illegal immigration from Mexico. For another decade or a bit more we must attempt to limit such entry, but then the problem will fade like the smile on the Cheshire Cat. Lou Dobbs, Rep. Tancredo and their nationalistic friends can calm down and relax.
Robert M. Dunn, Jr. is a Professor of Economics at the George Washington University. |
http://american.com/archive/2007/june-0607/mexican-immigration-will-solve-itself |
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sundubuman
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Location: seoul
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| Posted: Sun Jul 01, 2007 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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I've been screaming this for years. Add to that the fact that over the coming years larger and larger numbers of Mexican-Americans will choose to retire in Mexico (along with hundreds of thousands of non-Mexican-Americans) and the current hysteria will seem rather odd in 10 years time.
The two countries are integrating for better or for worse. The availability of authentic Mexican food in even small towns in the south and midwest is certainly for the better  |
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Tony_Balony
Joined: 12 Apr 2007
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 1:41 am Post subject: |
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The article is a lie. It is a propaganda piece put out by pro-immigration liberal college professor. Disregard.
I'm not impressed with food stuffs arguments. Latin culture also involves corruption. Even in rural midwest and southern towns you can find phoney ID cards.
Being afraid of "Mexicanization" is one thing, having it forced on us by something close to undeclared war is another. |
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 3:23 am Post subject: |
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You'd be surprised at the real estate buys available in Mexico seaside for $100K no problem.
Stay away from the time shares though. |
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VirginIslander
Joined: 24 May 2006
Location: Busan
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:35 am Post subject: |
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Look at the history of any area and you can see the cycle of immigration.
Northeast America. First it was the Indians. Then English Puritans. Then, the Italians, Germans, Irish and Polish Catholics. Then Blacks moved up from the South. Then the wave of Latin and Asian immigrants. Now East Asians, Arabs and more Spanish Speakers.
Whose next? Who cares? |
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Bibbitybop
Joined: 22 Feb 2006
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Tony_Balony wrote: |
Latin culture also involves corruption. Even in rural midwest and southern towns you can find phoney ID cards.
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Very broad generalization. "Illegal alien culture," yes. "Latin culture," no. That is an insult to the millions of legal immigrants.
Phony id cards are a necessity for illegals and should be expected. The same goes for under 21 white college students and some hogwan teachers in Korea. |
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Tony_Balony
Joined: 12 Apr 2007
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Phony id cards are a necessity for illegals and should be expected. The same goes for under 21 white college students and some hogwan teachers in Korea. |
No its not the same. There is no reason for the Mexicans to have phony ID cards. There is no human rights crises, these people just want more money. There is no necessity when white kids get a phoney ID for drinking.
Thats the dumbest argument I've heard all week and you felt confident you could get credit for something that dumb because it was buttressed by an accusation of racism. You have major ethics problems.
no(White kids drinking = Mexican illegal immigration)
no(phoney ID hogwans= Mexican illegal immigration)
Corruption is intrinsic in Latin culture. Its the bad side of multiculturalism, letting people do bad things out of cowardice to address the people doing the misdeeds or arrogance and aggression to make MC work at all costs.
The Vatican needs to spend more time on combating corruption but they are actually pretty useless. |
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koon_taung_daeng
Joined: 28 Jan 2007
Location: south korea
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Why is this such a big deal. if your an illegal immigrant in any country then you should be deported. I can't stay in mexico illegaly can i? these people are breaking the law and then when the government announces that they are going to try and send them back they take to the streets and protest. why didint the US just round them up then? |
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VirginIslander
Joined: 24 May 2006
Location: Busan
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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There is no human rights crises, these people just want more money.
Hey, I resemble that remark. |
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Juregen
Joined: 30 May 2006
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Tony_Balony wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Phony id cards are a necessity for illegals and should be expected. The same goes for under 21 white college students and some hogwan teachers in Korea. |
No its not the same. There is no reason for the Mexicans to have phony ID cards. There is no human rights crises, these people just want more money. There is no necessity when white kids get a phoney ID for drinking.
Thats the dumbest argument I've heard all week and you felt confident you could get credit for something that dumb because it was buttressed by an accusation of racism. You have major ethics problems.
no(White kids drinking = Mexican illegal immigration)
no(phoney ID hogwans= Mexican illegal immigration)
Corruption is intrinsic in Latin culture. Its the bad side of multiculturalism, letting people do bad things out of cowardice to address the people doing the misdeeds or arrogance and aggression to make MC work at all costs.
The Vatican needs to spend more time on combating corruption but they are actually pretty useless. |
What have you been smoking?
Amerika is the country off Immigration, why would that chance all of a sudden? Kind-a-stupid imho.
http://www.markfiore.com/animation/phobia.html
http://www.markfiore.com/animation/amnesty.html
Last edited by Juregen on Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:44 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Juregen wrote: |
| Tony_Balony wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Phony id cards are a necessity for illegals and should be expected. The same goes for under 21 white college students and some hogwan teachers in Korea. |
No its not the same. There is no reason for the Mexicans to have phony ID cards. There is no human rights crises, these people just want more money. There is no necessity when white kids get a phoney ID for drinking.
Thats the dumbest argument I've heard all week and you felt confident you could get credit for something that dumb because it was buttressed by an accusation of racism. You have major ethics problems.
no(White kids drinking = Mexican illegal immigration)
no(phoney ID hogwans= Mexican illegal immigration)
Corruption is intrinsic in Latin culture. Its the bad side of multiculturalism, letting people do bad things out of cowardice to address the people doing the misdeeds or arrogance and aggression to make MC work at all costs.
The Vatican needs to spend more time on combating corruption but they are actually pretty useless. |
What have you been smoking?
Amerika is the country off Immigration, why would that chance all of a sudden? Kind-a-stupid imho. |
It is spelled AmeriCa.
Open borders isn't a sensible immigration policy in our world. Just because America is a nation of immigration doesn't mean that they are ethically obligated to a policy of open borders. Illegal immigration is a problem, legal, managed immigration isn't. |
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Juregen
Joined: 30 May 2006
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 8:49 pm Post subject: |
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| BJWD wrote: |
It is spelled AmeriCa.
Open borders isn't a sensible immigration policy in our world. Just because America is a nation of immigration doesn't mean that they are ethically obligated to a policy of open borders. Illegal immigration is a problem, legal, managed immigration isn't. |
Good for you that it is spelled A-m-e-r-i-c-a, but to get to the point.
You (as in America) are making Immigration illegal, and forgetting all about your past. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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What the hell are you talking about you old fool? America takes in ONE MILLION legal immigrants a year.
What the hell are you smoking? |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:18 pm Post subject: |
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By the way, I'm Canadian but am in the process of LEGALLY immigrating to the United States right now. And as someone who is jumping through all the legal hoops, I'm a bit sensitive to the idea that others just jump the border. I'm penalized for my desire to follow the rules.
Public policy dude. Read up on it. |
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koon_taung_daeng
Joined: 28 Jan 2007
Location: south korea
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| Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:27 pm Post subject: |
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| BJWD wrote: |
By the way, I'm Canadian but am in the process of LEGALLY immigrating to the United States right now. And as someone who is jumping through all the legal hoops, I'm a bit sensitive to the idea that others just jump the border. I'm penalized for my desire to follow the rules.
Public policy dude. Read up on it. |
Thats an excellent point, what about all the canadians that bendover backwords getting their criminal background checks and all the other paperwork to immigrate to the US.Its just not fair and everybody keeps talking about how this country was founded on immigrants, what the hell does that have to do with anything? this is now and immigration has to be controlled. The US isint saying that you cant be here you just have to meet the requirements and wait in line. BE LEGAL DAMMIT |
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