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Amazingly well-preserved wooly mammoth, with photo
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pharflung



Joined: 29 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:12 am    Post subject: Amazingly well-preserved wooly mammoth, with photo Reply with quote

I hope I look this good when I am 40,000 years old!

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/07/070711-mammoth-picture.html

Quote:
A Russian hunter traipsing through Russia's remote Arctic Yamalo-Nenetsk region in May noticed what he thought was a reindeer carcass sticking out of the damp snow. (See a map of Russia and its remote Siberian regions.)

On closer inspection, the "reindeer" turned out to be a 40,000-year-old baby mammoth, perfectly encased in ice.

The six-month-old female mammoth is the most well-preserved example yet found of the beasts, which lumbered across the Earth during the last Ice Age, 1.8 million to 11,500 years ago.

"It's a lovely little baby mammoth indeed, found in perfect condition," Alexei Tikhonov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Science's Zoological Institute, told the Reuters news agency.

At 110 pounds (50 kilograms) and 51 inches long (130 centimeters long), the baby is the size of a large dog, Reuters reported.

Scientists are banking on the female�named "Lyuba" after the Russian hunter's wife�to reveal some of the genetic secrets of the prehistoric giants.

That's because Lyuda's excellent state�intact except for her shaggy locks�makes her a veritable treasure trove for research.

Emerging DNA technologies have already allowed some scientists to consider resurrecting the mammoth. (Read about the resurrection debate.)

Meanwhile, the newfound body will undergo three-dimensional computer mapping at Japan's Jikei University, followed by an autopsy at the Zoological Museum in St. Petersburg. The Ice Age toddler will end up on display in the Russian Arctic town of Salekhard.


You must click on the link and see this remarkable picture.

National Geographic has a related story about the possibility of reviving the extinct mammoths using DNA technology.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/06/070625-dna-resurrection.html

And then there is an article that talks about several finds of elaborate underwater construction remains, ala Atlantis.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/05/0528_020528_sunkencities.html

It seems the Earth, and homo sapiens, have been through more "recent" catastrophes than most people realize. It would seem that something sudden 40,000 years ago caused this mammoth to freeze so perfectly. And the Toba Catastrophe was only about 75,000 years ago. Makes you wonder what's next.
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khyber



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Compunction Junction

PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) Mammoth=COOL!
2) "Resurrecting" mammoths = uber-brilliant!
3) New underwater remains? =strange but....
First, you'll note the date of that article is from 2002. That's oooollllld.
Second, I can't find anything more recent. And frankly, it'd seem like that would be something scientists would want to sink their teeth into.
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Alyallen



Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Location: The 4th Greatest Place on Earth = Jeonju!!!

PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm just wondering if that hunter is still alive after naming a wooly mammoth after his wife. DEATHWISH! Laughing
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Junior



Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are a lot of mammoth remains being found now as the permafrost melts due to climate change.

Apparently in Siberia they have mountains of bones and tusks collected over the past 2/3 years.
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pharflung



Joined: 29 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some interesting points.

BTW, did you notice the reporter misspelled the name of the hunter's wife, at least once? Even pros make typos. But they shouldn't. That's what editors are for.

You know, in the grand scheme of things, 2002 doesn't seem that "oooollllld." But I should have noticed this.

Archeologists and others have been finding what appears to be the undersea remains of Atlantis all over the place, and it gets reported in the national media, yet the official world view never quite seems to change. This has been going on for at least 30 years.

Of course, in some instances there may be other explanations. In one case the proposed explanation was almost as radical as the Atlantis theory. Researchers found straight blocks of stone running down into the water off Florida. They were too geometric to be natural, and too old to be from modern construction. So what were they? It seems they were built by ancient Chinese explorers who built them from poured concrete as boat ramps for moving their junks in and out of the water. Chinese artifacts were found in the area.

But that doesn't explain everything.

I read a book that claimed that the big cut stone used for breakwaters in southern Florida were hauled out of shallow water where they seemed to form artificially regular patterns. Sometimes they have holes drilled in them. Anyone who has been to Florida knows there are no granite quaries, no stone, in the state, itself. Yet people don't ask, hey, where did that rock come from? I didn't. The author claimed they came from the remains of Atlantis.

True? I don't know; I'm not in Florida anymore. But some of the stories you hear are pure bunk, like the Bermuda triangle hokum. I lived near the so-called Bermuda triangle, and no one there had had any strange experiences. It was all the invention of an AP news reporter back around 1947, from what I read.

Some reporters just make stuff up. This happened to the coverage of the sinking of the Titanic. Just read
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/britain_wwone/titanic_01.shtml
to see how it works.

Was there an Atlantis? You would think there would be more obvious evidence, if there was. But the fundamental problem is that scientists have, until recently, assumed that life on Earth has been relatively stable.

Now we are realizing otherwise. When you add up all the potential causes of devastation - earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, asteroids, polar shifts, global warming, ice ages, disease, drought - you realize that intelligent life on Earth is an all too precarious miracle. Devastation happens, the only question is the time frame. And it looks like the time between disasters is shorter than we thought.

I don't buy into the exploitation of this fear by religion. Evangelists have been making a mint by foretelling the end of the world for at least a century now. You can't live your life based on fears of doom.

But religions sometimes thrive off of actual doom. Some believe that the rise of Islam corresponded to the massive eruption of Krakatoa in 535 AD, which caused worldwide famine. And Krakatoa was small potatoes compared to Toba.
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cwemory



Joined: 14 Jan 2006
Location: Gunpo, Korea

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So did they try to cook and eat the mammoth meat? Very Happy
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 8:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
So did they try to cook and eat the mammoth meat?


That's what I was wondering. Was she good to eat and what is the prefered method of cooking...roasting, baked, boiled...???

Recipes, please.
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khyber



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Compunction Junction

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
You know, in the grand scheme of things, 2002 doesn't seem that "oooollllld." But I should have noticed this.
In the grand scheme of research based science 5 years is a LONG time but I'm sure you know that.

Anyways, from the very limited reading i've done regarding this research, it appears that Cubans (government + scientists) are keeping a VERY tight lid on all studies and data collected surrounding this underwater "city".

As for underwater cities around the world, I'm not sure many of them are as deep as this one (1000ft). From what I remember, most underwater cities are under less than 40-50m of water.

Quote:
. But the fundamental problem is that scientists have, until recently, assumed that life on Earth has been relatively stable.
You are a reporter and perhaps you've talked to more "scientists" than I have but while studying my biology courses, I'd have to say that this idea is a bit off, though I suppose "relatively stable" may be too general.
GENERALLY, I think there was a great deal of stability and a lot of changes happenned over the course of millenia. Life adapted along with it's changing environment. Punctuated catastrophes are the only LARGE destabilizing events that most scientists will accept but I'm sure very few scientists think that life was stable.
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sojourner1



Joined: 17 Apr 2007
Location: Where meggi swim and 2 wheeled tractors go sput put chug alugg pug pug

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2007 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The mammoth seems to be the cold climate elephant that probably was killed off by hunters about 10,000 to 15,000 years ago. It probably was good to eat and provided oil for fires and fur for winter clothing. I think it would be awesome to synthesize the seeds of life from genome mapping. That is creating eggs from the genetic information to grow an extinct animal.
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paquebot



Joined: 20 Jun 2007
Location: Northern Gyeonggi-do

PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2007 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sojourner1 wrote:
The mammoth seems to be the cold climate elephant that probably was killed off by hunters about 10,000 to 15,000 years ago.


I don't mean to contradict you at all, sorjourner1, but I thought it would be worthwhile to throw out that there are two main theories that have been suggested to explain the disappearance of megafauna in North America.

The first theory is the Overkill Hypothesis, which is based on the idea that as humans spread across the continent they came across megafauna that were not frightened of them, and subsequently killed them off through overhunting. Finding Clovis and Hopewell points associated with megafauna bones has been used as evidence for this hypothesis. The Overkill Hypothesis was extremely popular several decades ago but has been losing ground as more studies have been conducted focusing on the interaction between climate change and local environments.

The second theory is the Climate Change Hypothesis, which posits that the climate changed enough to cause a collapse in the habitat best-suited toward supporting megafauana. This period is known as the Altithermal (or Holocene Climatic Optimum) and took place 9,000 - 5,000 BP. Recent palynology studies are the main support for this idea. Based on changing pollen densities it's estimated that summer temperatures could have risen by 9 �C, on average, in the northern hemisphere. Mammoth and mastadon remains start to be associated more with cactus pollen (indicating a change in diet - and not for the better) and are found in alpine settings where the temperature would have been cooler.

While the earlier chapters require a little technical reading, I would highly recommend Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Nino and the Fate of Civilizations by Brian Fagan for anyone interested in the subject. I have a few articles that deal specifically with megafauna, but unfortunately they're in storage right now Embarassed
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pharflung



Joined: 29 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I don't endorse the premise of that movie about a sudden snap deep freeze in our future, when talking about the wooly mammoth, you need to explain why these animals are being found flash frozen, in such pristine condition, sometimes with temperate climate vegetation in their stomachs.

To what extent that is connected to their extinction, I don't know. If they died out gradually, that suggests another cause than a very sudden climate change.

khyber:

Quote:
GENERALLY, I think there was a great deal of stability and a lot of changes happenned over the course of millenia. Life adapted along with it's changing environment. Punctuated catastrophes are the only LARGE destabilizing events that most scientists will accept but I'm sure very few scientists think that life was stable.


I'm not sure I understand your point. My point is that catastrophes, when you add up all the different kinds possible, are more common than most people realize.

Pharflung:

Quote:
Now we are realizing otherwise. When you add up all the potential causes of devastation - earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, asteroids, polar shifts, global warming, ice ages, disease, drought - you realize that intelligent life on Earth is an all too precarious miracle. Devastation happens, the only question is the time frame. And it looks like the time between disasters is shorter than we thought....

Some believe that the rise of Islam corresponded to the massive eruption of Krakatoa in 535 AD, which caused worldwide famine. And Krakatoa was small potatoes compared to Toba.


Perhaps the most serious threat to life on Earth is that of a super-large volcanic eruption. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa is the most dramatic modern example. But it was a mere puff of smoke compared with the eruption of Mt. Toba in Indonesia. The incredibly massive eruption of this volcano released 800 cubic kilometers of ash into the atmosphere. In India, layers of volcanic ash from this eruption have been found that are from 1 to 6 meters deep.

You need to realize that the bigger danger from volcanoes is not the red hot lava flowing down the mountain, or the chunks of pumice rock thrown into the air; it's the volcanic ash, an abrasive glassy mineral powder.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_ash

According to Stanly H. Ambrose, the professor behind the Toba Catastrophe Theory, the ash in the atmosphere reduced worldwide temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius for several years, possibly triggering an ice age.

DNA analysis shows that a genetic bottleneck occurred around the same time, reducing the number of humans to an estimated 1,000 to 10,000 breeding pairs. In other words, something cut the number of humans to from 2,000 to 20,000 adults. In the entire world. Shoot, that's the size of some apartment complexes here.

And when did this occur? 2 million years ago? 1 million years ago? 500,000 years ago? Not even close. About 75,000 years ago.

There are plenty of dormant volcanoes around, and plenty of active ones, too. I have been in the ash clouds of four different volcanoes, numerous times - some volcanoes, once they become active, keep erupting on and off. It is not a scientific abstraction to me. Volcanic eruptions are fairly common in many places of the world.

I have seen the ash drift from the sky like snowflakes from a eruption 250 miles away, stinging my eyes, felt the clammy warmth of the ash cloud on my skin, gagged on the yellow-green sulfur cloud, trying desperately to breathe with a wet towel over my face. It's something you don't forget.

I have seen cars covered with ash as though it were a winter snowfall in May while men wearing face masks swept if off with brooms, from an eruption 600 miles away - Mount St. Helens. But apparently, even Mount St. Helens was only a junior squirt compared to what's lying dormant for the time being.

Ash travels. And it can shut down travelling.

I was given a closeup look at what an ash cloud can do to a 747 that happens to fly into it. Volcanic ash hitting the plane at 500 mph turned the cockpit's windows into frosted glass, making it impossible for the pilot to see where they were going. The ash, melting in the jets's heat and turning into glass, clogged all four engines, causing them to stall until they were near the ground and able to restart in the thicker air.

If you get enough ash in the air around the world, there will be no jets flying until the air clears, which could take months or years -- possibly decades. Heavy ash would quickly clog air filters on cars and trucks, and then grind down their engines. With enough ash and a little rain, roads would be a slippery, muddy mess. So you won't be going anywhere.

While we're at it, satellite and broadcast signals would be disrupted, probably including your cell phones. Open water sources would, I assume, turn into sulfuric acid from the sulfur in the ash. And naturally, crops would be destroyed. Then a long, cold winter would descend.

Duct tape ain't gonna help.

In America, at least, you would have a lot of people running around with guns. In some places they would be running around with bombs. And there would be a lot of people waving Bibles. Or Korans. Or whatever it is they leave in the local motel night table. They will be worth reading because in short order most people would be able to test for themselves the accuracy of what these books have to say about the afterlife.

* * *

It's not a matter of whether, it's a matter of when.

"None of the world's 100 or so active super volcanoes had erupted in modern times. However, if one did, it would be 100 to 1000 times more powerful than Krakatoa's 1883 eruption." --

http://southerlybuster.blogspot.com/2005/04/just-when-you-thought-it-was-safe-to.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

Ambrose believes the Toba eruption wiped out humans in Europe and northern China, leaving the primary pool in Africa and other warm equatorial areas. (I have seen ash from Mount St. Helens that had migrated toward the North Pole, so perhaps the air clears earliest near the equator.)

His theory suggests an answer to the mystery of why, if humans left Africa relatively recently, we don't all look more like the folks in Africa. The reason is that when the population of a species is small, genetic variation has a relatively larger impact on evolution, speeding up differentiation to adapt to varying climates around the globe.

Here is some of what Ambrose has to say:


Quote:
Professor Stanley H. Ambrose


Department of Anthropology,
University Of Illinois, Urbana, USA

Extract from "Journal of Human Evolution"

[1998] 34, 623-651

The last glacial period was preceded by 1000 years of the coldest temperatures of the Late Pleistocene, apparently caused by the eruption of the Mount Toba volcano. The six year long volcanic winter and 1000-year-long instant Ice Age that followed Mount Toba's eruption may have decimated Modern Man's entire population. Genetic evidence suggests that Human population size fell to about 10,000 adults between 50 and 100 thousand years ago. The survivors from this global catastrophy would have found refuge in isolated tropical pockets, mainly in Equatorial Africa. Populations living in Europe and northern China would have been completely eliminated by the reduction of the summer temperatures by as much as 12 degrees centigrade.

Volcanic winter and instant Ice Age may help resolve the central but unstated paradox of the recent African origin of Humankind: if we are all so recently "Out of Africa", why do we not all look more African?

Because the volcanic winter and instant Ice Age would have reduced populations levels low enough for founder effects, genetic drift and local adaptations to produce rapid changes in the surviving populations, causing the peoples of the world to look so different today. In other words, Toba may have caused Modern Races to differentiate abruptly only 70,000 years ago, rather than gradually over one million years.


Volcanic Winter


The Mount Toba eruption is dated to approximately 71,000 years ago. Volcanic ash from Mount Toba can be traced north-west across India, where a widespread terrestrial marker bed exists of primary and reworked airfall ash, in beds that are commonly 1 to 3, and occasionally 6 meters [18 feet] thick.

Tambora, the largest known historic eruption, displaced 20 cubic kilometres of ash. Mount Toba produced 800 cubic kilometres.* It was therefore forty times larger than the largest eruption of the last two centuries and apparently the second largest known explosive eruption over the last 450 million years....


http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/stanley_ambrose.php

More info:

http://www.anthro.uiuc.edu/faculty/ambrose/

http://www.jqjacobs.net/anthro/paleo/bottleneck.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory

* * *

How long before another super eruption? Who knows?

Before then, we are more likely to see a reversal of the earth's magnetic poles. A shift appears to already be in process. Whether it will stop in its tracks, occur in the next century or in the next 1,000 years, we do not know. But once a polar flip nears, things can happen fast. That's what PBS's Nova had to say.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/timeline.html

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/

A polar flip is preceded by a weakening of the earth's magnetic poles. I have heard that the actual locations of the magnetic poles also have been moving measurably in recent years.

Quote:
Measurements have been made of the Earth's magnetic field more or less continuously since about 1840. Some measurements even go back to the 1500s, for example at Greenwich in London. If we look at the trend in the strength of the magnetic field over this time (for example the so-called 'dipole moment' shown in the graph below) we can see a downward trend. Indeed projecting this forward in time would suggest zero dipole moment in about 1500-1600 years time. This is one reason why some people believe the field may be in the early stages of a reversal. We also know from studies of the magnetization of minerals in ancient clay pots that the Earth's magnetic field was approximately twice as strong in Roman times as it is now.


http://www.astrosciences.info/magflips.htm

This web page apparently also quotes a section of the Nova documentary.

The impact of a polar flip probably would not be anywhere near as catastrophic as an eruption like Toba. But it is just one in the list of types of natural catastrophes that occur periodically through the Earth's history. And we are apparently due for a flip.

* * *

A lot of people worry about earthquakes. I have lived in a city devastated by the second strongest quake ever recorded - 9.2 on the Richter scale. I've seen footage of the tsunami. I have interviewed people who survived the earthquake, and people who had family members that did not. A friend lost his two young children, their home buried, their bodies never recovered.

I've been in earthquakes the strength of the one that damaged the nuclear reactor in Japan - 6.8. Earthquakes are a reminder that the world we live upon is alive, sometimes like a loving mother, other times like Dr. Frankenstein's monster. While an earthquake can produce a tragedy, it cannot, by itself, cause a worldwide catastrophe. But if a 9.0 or larger quake (the level of the Asian tsunami quake) hits a heavily populated area, such as Calilfornia, one could easily cause a localized catastrophe unlike anything ever seen in modern times.

Here is some footage of the destruction caused by the Good Friday Earthquake: http://vilda.alaska.edu/cdm4/item_viewer.php?CISOROOT=/cdmg11&CISOPTR=3290&REC=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmAYeGf1-gk&mode=related&search=

Here is actual footage of the tsunami in Valdez:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J73-WEaALV4
http://vilda.alaska.edu/cdm4/item_viewer.php?CISOROOT=/cdmg11&CISOPTR=3362&REC=12

In Old Valez, the tsunami was 30 feet high, in the inlet it reached 220 feet. The earth shook violently for 4-5 minutes, enough to contemplate the possibility it was the end of the world.

* * *

And then there are tornadoes, hurricanes, comets and asteroids. Most of you have probably seen at least one comet in the past 10 years or so. There were asteroids passing by the neighborhood, too.

* * *

Probably the simplest of natural changes is related to sunspot activity. It has long been believed that a deep lull in sunspot activity was responsible for an unusually cold period in Europe beginning in the 16th century. The original basis for this hypothesis was the records of sunspot activity kept by Chinese astronomers. Now they have radiocarbon evidence.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age :

Quote:

Solar activity

Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon.

During the period 1645�1715, right in the middle of the Little Ice Age, solar activity as seen in sunspots was extremely low, with some years having no sunspots at all. This period of low sunspot activity is known as the Maunder Minimum. The precise link between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures has not been established, but the coincidence of the Maunder Minimum with the deepest trough of the Little Ice Age is suggestive of such a connection [23]. The Sp�rer Minimum has also been identified with a significant cooling period during the Little Ice Age. Other indicators of low solar activity during this period are levels of carbon-14 and beryllium-10 [24]. The low solar activity is also well documented in astronomical records. Astronomers in both Europe and Asia documented a decrease in the number of visible solar spots during this time period.

[edit]
Volcanic activity

Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world also experienced heightened volcanic activity[citation needed]. When a volcano erupts, its ash reaches high into the atmosphere and can spread to cover the whole earth. This ash cloud blocks out some of the incoming solar radiation, leading to worldwide cooling that can last up to two years after an eruption. Also emitted by eruptions is sulfur in the form of SO2 gas. When this gas reaches the stratosphere, it turns into sulfuric acid particles, which reflect the sun's rays, further reducing the amount of radiation reaching the earth's surface. The 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia blanketed the atmosphere with ash; the following year, 1816, came to be known as the Year Without A Summer, when frost and snow were reported in June and July in both New England and Northern Europe....


According to this article, there also was increased volcanic activity around the tail end of this period, which could have contributed to the frigid period, or at least extended it.

* * *

Stability? What stability?

Apparently there are enough different types of natural disasters that happen often enough that we can have two or more at the same time.

We have relatively little to go on to estimate our risks because there is so much we don't know. Look how far back our science goes on these subjects. Sure, organized science has been around for abut 200 to 400 years, depending on how you view it. But so much of our relevant discoveries have come in the last decade or two.

Our current knowledge has only scratched the surface of truth. Worse, we really don't have a clue how to survive a major catastrophe, as a species. Just look at how ineptly we handled Hurricane Katrina. Amplify that 10,000 times, 100,000 times. And then realize we don't have anyplace else to evacuate to.

On the other hand, it might eliminate the cause of global warming.

There are now more than 6.6 billion people on this planet:
http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop

By the year 2042 it is projected there will be 9 billion. What it will be like in 2107 or 2207 or 3007 or 4007 at this rate is unimaginable.
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpopinfo.html

Most of the people on this site reading this will be around in the year 2042; many will still be breathing in 2077, with a little bit of luck. It's going to be crowded.

But sheer quantity of people will be of little use if a worldwide catastrophe strikes; if anything, it would be a disadvantage with the food supply devastated. Much of the life on Earth, including humans, could be killed. It has happened before; this is fact. Whether the destruction of Atlantis actually occurred is not clear. But what is clear is that we could be Atlantis. And we might not get much notice.

So enjoy this wonderful world while you can.

Cheers.
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pharflung



Joined: 29 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any questions?
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caniff



Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map

PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As for the increase in world population, the estimates are based on current trends (I presume).

Any hope that the under-developed world will catch up with the developed world, most of which has a negative birth rate, thereby eventually reducing rather than increasing the population?
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twg



Joined: 02 Nov 2006
Location: Getting some fresh air...

PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pharflung wrote:
So enjoy this wonderful world while you can.

Cheers.

Exit Mundi my site of choice when it comes to the end of the world...

http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm
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pharflung



Joined: 29 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

caniff:

Quote:
As for the increase in world population, the estimates are based on current trends (I presume).


No. It is not simply a projection of the current growth rate.

The number cited of 9 billiion people by 2042 was from the U.S. Census Bureau, which anticipates a significant slowing in the growth of the world's population. Over the last 40 years of the 20th century the population doubled. Over the next 43 years, the Census Bureau expects the population to only grow by 50 percent. Given that longevity, in general, is increasing, this suggests they anticipate a decline in the birthrate:

Quote:
The page entitled "Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050" presents the latest estimates and projections of world population from the U.S. Census Bureau. These figures are also presented in the figure at left. The world population increased from 3 billion in 1959 to 6 billion by 1999, a doubling that occurred over 40 years. The Census Bureau's latest projections imply that population growth will continue into the 21st century, although more slowly. The world population is projected to grow from 6 billion in 1999 to 9 billion by 2042, an increase of 50 percent that will require 43 years.


Actually, scientists are predicting dramatic breakthroughs in the relatively near future that would significantly reduce death rates from major diseases.* Whether these predictions come true or not, clearly such breakthroughs are bound to occur sometime in this century. So there may be some wishful thinking on the part of the Census Bureau in these projections.

Without a dramatic reduction in birth rates, if there is a breakthrough in extending longevity, world population will increase dramatically. But there will be fewer young people working and paying taxes to support the aging population.

caniff:

Quote:
Any hope that the under-developed world will catch up with the developed world, most of which has a negative birth rate, thereby eventually reducing rather than increasing the population?


I doubt it.

One of the biggest factors in reducing the incentive for large families has been government welfare programs, especially for the elderly. A large family, historically, was a way to assure you would be provided for in your old age. Without some such assurance in developing countries, I doubt people would voluntarily reduce the size of their families.

Children also represent cheap labor if you are a farmer.

Plus, you have religions that are popular in some developing countries that teach that birth control is a sin, and large families are God's will. This is a big part of the problem in the United States.

As long as a country is underdeveloped and unstable, poor people will have little faith in the government's ability to take care of them in their old age. Development, stability and a government pension scheme might help.


* For example, scientists are working on ways of taking cells naturally produced in a patient's body to fight cancer, reproducing them in a test tube, and reinjecting this "vaccine" to fight the cancer. Sooner or later, something like this is bound to work. As a surgeon once told me: In a hundred years, doctors will look back on the techniques we are using today in horror, as though we were witch doctors.

On the other hand, if people keeping getting more and more obese, that might help cancel out some of the scientific advances.
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