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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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 Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:44 am Post subject: AFTER CASTRO: Better opportunities await Cuba |
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An era is ending. With Fidel Castro's inevitable passing, neither Latin America nor Cuba will ever be the same. The Comandante has always valued ideas -- i.e., his own -- over the prosaic -- i.e., ordinary people. Since Cuba alone never satisfied his supersized ego, he looked elsewhere, Latin America in particular.
In the 1960s, Castro tried to export the revolution by creating or supporting guerrillas. The strategy -- centered on his own Sierra Maestra experience whereby a handful of individuals supposedly toppled the Batista regime -- failed miserably.
The Fidelista script doesn't even do justice to the Cuban revolution's triumph. Complex historical dynamics had rendered Cuban society vulnerable and, more immediately, the llano -- the urban-based resistance -- heaped more damage on the dictatorship than the rural guerrillas ever did.
Venezuela, then an incipient democracy, and Bolivia, a highly mobilized society since the 1930s, for example, repelled Cuban-inspired efforts. Venezuela carried out a no-holds-barred counterinsurgency, and Ernesto Guevara's guerrilla never caught fire in Bolivia. In 1988, I stood at Machu Picchu in Peru and fully comprehended the folly of the Comandante's call to turn the Andes into the Sierra Maestra of Latin America. If nothing else, geography rendered the call null: the Sierra Maestra is no Andes.
In 1979, guerrillas won in Nicaragua but only because the Sandinista strategy fit their circumstances. Their revolution, moreover, never reached the heights of exclusion and repression that Cuba's has. Albeit reluctantly, the Sandinistas respected the electoral outcome that ended their rule in 1990. We're still waiting in Cuba.
Castro has lived long enough to see Latin America take a favorable turn. During the 1990s, democracy and markets swayed the day. Now, there's a resurgent populism that is gutting democracy and reinstating the state at the economy's center. Heir-apparent Hugo Ch�vez is buying allies, or silence, doling out cheap oil or buying bonds.
Still, hardly anyone respects Ch�vez while just the opposite -- whether from friend or foe -- is true of the Comandante. In addition, Ecuador's Rafael Correa may not be prone to follow Ch�vez's lead. Bolivia's opposition and the government's radical allies are making life rather hard for Evo Morales. Flying high now, statist policies will eventually wreak economic havoc. If successfully enacted, Ch�vez's proposed constitutional reforms could require widespread repression to enforce them.
In short, choppier seas may lie ahead. Democrats beware: Whatever the fate of Ch�vez and the others, the citizen anger they have exploited must still be redressed. Though much more is needed, that's exactly what Brazil and Mexico are doing by reducing poverty and expanding the middle class.
Ra�l Castro's interim government has not brought economic -- let alone political -- relief to the Cuban people. Yet, intimations of change are in evidence. I can't see any other starting point than opening the economy; a dictatorship doesn't start reforms by granting freedoms. There are no guarantees that a freer economy will lead to political liberties. Maintaining the status quo, however, is the surest path to a regime breakdown, which is why Ra�l will probably decree economic reforms once Fidel passes.
Whatever happens next is anyone's guess. Two of the possible scenarios -- radical economic restructuring under communist rule or a democratic transition -- could pose different challenges to Latin America.
** While still a dictatorship, a relatively prosperous Cuba -- with less pronounced inequalities than elsewhere -- might best the economic performance of Latin American democracies.
** A democratic Cuba -- where freedom abets national reconciliation -- may reveal uncomfortable truths about the revolution's human costs, which many Latin Americans, particularly on the Left, have yet to recognize.
Once the inevitable happens, Cuba and the new populism will lose their most imposing myth. Neither Ra�l Castro nor Hugo Ch�vez can hold the fort the way the Comandante has. Who will steady Ch�vez in times of crisis? Ra�l has a better sense of his own limitations, which -- given the circumstances -- may be good news.
An era is, indeed, ending. For one, Ra�l and Hugo are not soul mates. For Cuba, unexpected opportunities will surely arise, there and here. Will we find the courage to seize them? For all of our sakes, I hope so.
Marifeli P�rez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and a professor at Florida International University. |
www.miamiherald.com |
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contrarian
Joined: 20 Jan 2007
Location: Nearly in NK
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| Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:02 am Post subject: |
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| May Castro's death be exceeding painful and happen soon. |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:04 am Post subject: |
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| Agreed. I hope to be in Little Havana in Miami when he goes. That will be the party of the year! |
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thepeel
Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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| Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:10 am Post subject: |
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Report: Get ready for post-Castro Cuba
'The U.S. government will need to be prepared well in advance'
From Elise Labott
CNN Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. should have assistance in Cuba within weeks of President Fidel Castro's death to support a transitional government and help move the country toward democracy, a government report recommends.
The report was prepared by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, an interagency group co-chaired by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, a Cuban-American.
President Bush created the commission in 2003 to "help hasten and ease Cuba's democratic transition," according to its Web site.
The report, obtained by CNN in advance of its scheduled release next week, is billed as a strategic plan to promote democracy on the island once Castro is no longer in power. (Watch how the U.S. has designs on Cuba after Castro -- 1:17)
"The U.S. government will need to be prepared well in advance to help in the event assistance is requested by the Cuban transition government," the report says.
Earlier this month, the Cuban government cut off electricity to the U.S. interests section in Havana, the capital. The State Department said requests to have the power restored went unanswered for several days.
Cuba was accused by the State Department of engaging in "bully tactics" to thwart pro-democracy efforts in the country.
While noting that Castro has plans for a successor, the commission says the message that the U.S. would assist a democratic Cuba could bolster democratic forces in the country and create an environment where democracy and economic reforms could thrive.
Lending a hand with health care and clean water would be good starts, the report says.
The report also calls on the the U.S. "to put in place preparations that will ensure that the U.S. will be in a position to provide technical assistance in the first two weeks after a determination that a Cuban transition is under way."
That would include legal experts to help with elections. Training judges and police would be essential, according to the report.
The six months immediately following Castro's death or ouster would be key to determining U.S. success in the mission, the report says.
"This critical 180-day period could mean the difference between a successful transition period and the stumbles and missteps that have slowed other states in their transitions toward democracy," the report says.
It calls for an $80 million "democratic fund" for two years to strengthen civil society, boost opposition to Castro's regime and facilitate the free flow of information. It recommends at least $20 million a year for democracy programs "until the dictatorship ceases to exist."
The report recommends offering a substantial aid package to the transitional government if it met certain criteria under the 1996 Helms-Burton Act.
Those criteria would include freeing all political prisoners, legalizing all political activity, conducting democratic elections and establishing a free press.
The State Department had no comment on the report because it hasn't been officially released, but officials did say the report could change.
Cuba expert Philip Peters of the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based think tank, said normalization of relations between Cuba and the United States could take time.
"Despite extensive planning for a full transition, it seems more likely that after Fidel Castro's departure, we will see a socialist successor government that will decide whether, where, and how fast to reform the policies it inherits," Peters wrote in a recent column.
"Washington will then have to decide how to use U.S. influence to promote positive change," said Peters, a former State Department appointee during the Reagan and first Bush administrations.
He noted that U.S. influence "will be limited by decades of policies that have blocked communication between our peoples and governments, and by the all-or-nothing posture that the Helms-Burton law imposes on U.S. diplomacy." |
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/06/30/after.castro/index.html |
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bejarano-korea
Joined: 13 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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Do you honestly think... and lets be honest here, Castro hadn't the support of the Cuban public he would still be in power?
Do you honestly think... and lets be honest here, that the Cubans are going to see America and their right wing headcase compatriots who have been hiding in Miami for the past 50 years as some kind of liberators?
And before you anwser this one chaps, when was it the last time you was in Cuba? 
And the dissenters in Cuba that hate Castro hate America even more, to think that you are going to go marching in and take over from where Batista left off then you are in for a very sorry awakening. Castro is selling land like mad to the Spanish. It is the Spanish, not the Americans who are going to be the movers and shakers when Cuba goes back to capitalism. The Spanish are there now - the Americans are not.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/79461.stm
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1d3e350-106c-11dc-96d3-000b5df10621,dwp_uuid=3d806e42-a627-11db-937f-0000779e2340.html
Castro's historcial legacy, giving the finger to the yanquis for nearly 50 years and taking on and beating Apartheid South Africa in Angola.
Fidel Castro has a lot to be proud of.
A lot of the American administrations have not. |
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contrarian
Joined: 20 Jan 2007
Location: Nearly in NK
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| Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:47 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, Castro was in power because he either killed off (in the early years) or ran off all of those who disagreed with him (in later years) despite the fact that the population didn't like him. It was the classic despot tactic of rewarding the few and oppressing the many.
Some of them may be quite worried about the Miami Cubans coming back and claiming thier property. But they will come back, speaking the language, bringing American dollars, American culture, freedom and excess. They will be viewed with suspicion byt welcomed nevertheless. Besides the Miami Cubans have reltives there.
Castro is selling land to the Spanish, land that probably belongs to Miami Cubans. There will be some interesting didputes over that.
The US is very near, very rich, very attractive and very aggressive and the Miami Cubans are a small version of the same.
It may not be nice, but the Miami Cubans are predominatly white and must of Castro's support was black.
Yes I have been there - once. |
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bejarano-korea
Joined: 13 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 12:44 am Post subject: |
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| contrarian wrote: |
Yes, Castro was in power because he either killed off (in the early years) or ran off all of those who disagreed with him (in later years) despite the fact that the population didn't like him. It was the classic despot tactic of rewarding the few and oppressing the many.
Some of them may be quite worried about the Miami Cubans coming back and claiming thier property. But they will come back, speaking the language, bringing American dollars, American culture, freedom and excess. They will be viewed with suspicion byt welcomed nevertheless. Besides the Miami Cubans have reltives there.
Castro is selling land to the Spanish, land that probably belongs to Miami Cubans. There will be some interesting didputes over that.
The US is very near, very rich, very attractive and very aggressive and the Miami Cubans are a small version of the same.
It may not be nice, but the Miami Cubans are predominatly white and must of Castro's support was black.
Yes I have been there - once. |
Basically the Americans are going to have to learn the lessons of Iraq
in instigating a regime change in Cuba. Change is coming, even Fidel knows this hence his dealings and selling prime land to the Spanish.
The Cubans do not want the Americans in there, when Castro dies they would rather be left alone to steer themselves to capitalism (erm democracy I mean) which eevryone knows is inevitable.
It would help if the Miami Cubans forgot about their land, they'll never get it back, they should forget about it. Also their desire for revenge and
'kangaroo courts' will be high on their list and which will probably happen.
The regime has embarrased the various US administrations over the past 50 years, revenge is going to be a main factor when the Americans and the Miami Cubans turn up in the next few years, this will alienate them
amongst the Cuban population moe than they already are. It would be a bad idea but the Americans and the Miami Cubans are far too predictable and stupid not to do it.
The Cubans that are there (the vast majority of the rich, white Cubans are in Miami, whoever wanted to leave has left) know that they will aint no more freedom but be indentured into more servitude, ie: working as hotel workers, waiters and chambermaids for little money under the Americans. The Americans won't bring freedom to the people, they have yet to do that anywhere. They will bring capitalism so they can make a few quid off the land.
As for Castro being a murderer, sure is he's a dictator - though after 50 years or so he is far behind old Dubya on the scoreboard. Has Castro ever bombed civillian populaces? I think Dubya must be something like
750,000 to 5000 up against Castro! |
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