Korean Job Discussion Forums

[4 months left]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=515258288&play=1#

Dow CEO interview on CNBC on Friday. In the last minute of the interview he says that the middle east has "lots of oil."

I have said before, fear and political unrest are pushing up oil, first celluosic ethanol factory starting construction soon - much better than corn ethanol and does not affect food prices. (another Fri. CNBC video)

Substitutes are going to push down the price of oil in the long term.

[keane]

Let us hope so. Let us also hope there IS a long term. You should know by now that the issue isn't HOW MUCH oil there is. In fact, how much there is is almost irrelevant for now. The issue is demand vs. production. We could have 10 trillion barrels and it wouldn't matter if demand outstrips production.

It is simple: some fields are dropping in production, some rising. There have been no super giant fields found in a very, very long time. Giant fields are being found less and less often. Since those form a substantial fraction of the oil production, if they all go into decline - and most are 40+ years old - then no new production will keep up.

Cellulosic, should it prove viable (which is not a given), will take decades to ramp up to a level to replace oil.

Let's play with some numbers:

Depletion globally: 1%/yr (In fact, most fields deplete at around 4%/yr on avg.)

Increased demand globally: 2% year (IEA)

Equals: 13,000,000 of new production needed by 2012.

The EIA reported over the summer that it expects problems with very tight supply by 2012. Since there is nowhere I know of that 6,000,000 barrels of oil is coming from within 5 years, I think they are right.

You will say Oil Sands, ethanol, cellulosic, Saudi Arabia, etc., etc.

Oil sands from Canada will go up about 4 mb/d by 2020. Saudi can go to 12.5 from their current 8.9 or so. There are no other very large supplies coming on. You will have some 100,000 b/d and such coming on line, bt nothing out there is anything like Tar Sands or Saudi Arabia.

Want to know what demand + depletion equals in 2020?

Depletion globally: 1%/yr (In fact, most fields deplete at around 4%/yr on avg.)

Increased demand globally: 2% year (IEA)

Equals: 35,000,000 of new production needed by 2020.

Now, where do you see that, or the energy equivalent, coming from? Ironic fact: A recession/depression helps with the Peak Oil problem by reducing demand.


BTW, why didn't you post this on Peak Oil?

[mindmetoo]

[mindmetoo]

EFL, just because you changed your screen name doesn't mean my previous advice to you no longer stands. Don't bother sending me whiny private messages. I just delete them.

[keane]

[mindmetoo]

[keane]

[mindmetoo]

[keane]

[mindmetoo]