Korean Job Discussion Forums

[thepeel]

I think this video is an excellent debate about what is happening in the global economy. The two schools of thought are clearly and properly represented. I don't know who is right, though I lean towards Peter Schiff.

Is a cheap dollar good or bad for the American, and global, economy?

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-11-7-07_lg.asp

For a pessimistic take:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/226072

[cbclark4]

A strong dollar is good for Imports.

A weak dollar is good for Exports.

Or is it the other way around?

[mindmetoo]

A weak dollar is good for property and land owners in NYC, et al. Means, Europeans and Asians will be ready to buy your building. It's good for Microsoft. It's not going to change the price of its software it sells in Euros in Europe. Every time it earns a Euro in Europe, it's earning more.

I used to work for a software company in Toronto that mostly sold its software in the USA. More the Canadian dollar tanked, way better it was for our company.

[thepeel]

Isn't it a touch more complicated than that?

[yawarakaijin]

Well, I know that in Japan NO ONE seems to be complaining about the weak yen. It is very strange because I always imagine Japan was a country that imported a lot of good. I guess their profits on exported goods must outweigh the cost of importing.

Maybe someone could answer me this though. Canada is America's biggest trading partner. Where are all the economists complaing about losing a market which they use to be able to take advantage of? All those raw materials from Canada used to be purchased at bargain basement prices, I imagined there would be more than a few economist lamenting the turn around.

It is complicated though, those in the American foresty industry must be loving it, no longer having to compete with cheap Canadian softwood. This may lead to a boom in construction with American companies getting almost all the spoils of war.

[thepeel]

This dude figures a 40-50% decline in the American stock market is likely.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_0pqHzK324&eurl=http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/

[keane]

Yes, it is complicated. Were this a time when the dollar was simply weaker and other conditions were relatively normal, it wouldn't mean much except for specific industries/groups. That is not the case. We have a time when w are spending huge amounts on a needless war that will strain the economy for probably generations; when a weak economy will exacerbate our ability to ameliorate the effects of climate change; when the economy is being driven down by extreme food and energy costs; when personal resiliency to financial strain and other external problems is greatly weakened for the middle and lower classes due to losses of wealth (equity and value of assets held in dollars), etc., etc.

It ain't gonna be pretty no matter how you slice it. People are already losing homes, cars, going hungry, will be getting cold, etc. And that's just in the US. In a number areas of the world there are already fuel and energy supply problems, food shortages, etc. Not to mention wars...

EDIT: Wowser... one of those dudes just said we're at Peak Oil... Where's his tin hat?

[bucheon bum]

[Tiger Beer]

[thepeel]

That (low = exports, high = imports) is the most simplistic understanding of the debate possible.

Leaving aside that a country cannot go from a 70% based consumption economy to a 70% production economy without the same kind of pain that happened with de-industrialization, the greenback losing the "global reserve currency" status has massive implications for the United States.

[huffdaddy]

[mindmetoo]

[thepeel]

[thepeel]

[huffdaddy]