Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Captain Corea]

So, I know one person's guess is as good as the next, but I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts about Canada's future economic outlook.

[Ilsanman]

As long as people keep using natural resources as if they're water, we'll be doing well.

But that won't last. Maybe for our lifetime. But who knows?

[RACETRAITOR]

Alberta's economy is strong but it's delicately balanced on tar sands. If the US were to drill for oil in Alaska, or switch over to an alternative fuel source, the province would become an empty wasteland (as opposed to a crowded one). Maybe even if the US were to pacify Iraq and get the oil pumping there again Canada would be doomed. I have also heard Saskatchewan is sitting on large oil reserves and just waiting for Alberta to show weakness.

The dropping dollar doesn't scare me. Apparently it'll pay off to the economy somehow.

[ernie]

i'm really worried about the suburban 'bedroom communities' that are still being built at a breakneck pace these days... i think the end of cheap oil will spell disaster for most of these communities, which are horribly designed, have minimal public transit service, and are far away from work environments... there will be a crunch on urban centers, both large metro areas and mid-sized cities because of the influx of residents who cannot afford to drive anymore...

p.s. i think all of these changes will be for the better!

[Captain Corea]

I've always thought of Canada as being fairly pegged to the US economy. If the US is down, Canada follows (a year or so behind sometimes).

Canada may not have the 'sub-prime bubble' , but I wonder about any other problems lurking under the surface.

[RACETRAITOR]

[VanIslander]

[Ilsanman]

American would be better to build desalination plants then.

[TheWesternShoreKid]

Here are my two cents...

I was a planning student. I thought teaching ESL was a better gig. Go figure. Actually, I read Boom, Bust and Echo 2000 in the year 2000. C-Ya later Canada. Sadly, I have a negative view about Canada's economy. But I am open to suggestions.

Just some ideas...

Canada is getting older.

That means higher taxes to cover increasing medical costs. But the manufacturing jobs that carried the middle class are gone or going. Who will pick up the slack?

Urban sprawl and the bedroom communities.

Who will cover the increasing municipal taxes and services (fire, police, roads, sewers)? Credit cards? I suspect that is why rentals are so expensive in Canada. The availability of easy to get credit. More ground to cover means more demand for oil, more demand for oil means bad news if you own a car.

Rich Dad's Prophecy.

In this book Kiyosaki talks about the massive devaluation of the stock market because of baby boomers starting their retirement plan. US and Canada have roughly the same demographics. I don't think this book is far fetched.

Overall government mismanagement of money.

I am sure every Canadian in Korea has an example of how their respective province screwed up in a big way. Nova Scotians might recall a theme park being built in the middle of nowhere. Or the support of a steel mill that never made money and is now an ecological disaster. Once that money is gone it will never come back. I don't ever see the Canadian government changing it's way of operating.

US Dollar.

As the US dollar goes down in value. I believe that its purchasing power decreases. The US is the number one buyer of Canadian goods. Sooner or later that would hurt Canadian manufacturers. As I understand the US is not pegged to Gold anymore and continues to need more money to fight wars. What can the Bank of Canada do?

Again, I only have a pedestrian understanding of economics. I hope someone will counter my arguments with a positive perspective. I apologize if I added any stress to your day.

[Faunaki]

I believe all the fear mongering that fresh water will be scarce in most countries by 2030. Canada has loads. Canada's the place to be. I want to buy shares in fresh water but I don't know if that's possible. Is it?

[blaseblasphemener]

Canada is sitting on a gigantic housing bubble. But

a) Canada has an unprecedented (for Canada) economy, so high paying jobs in the big city are aplenty.

b) The mortgage loans people have qualified for have not been of the sub-prime variety, meaning people with bad credit or no money down.

However, when the world economy crashes next year, due to the economic collapse of America, followed by the deflationiary actions of the Chinese goverment following the Olympics, Canada will be in deep ka-ka. Suddenly, people on two incomes who were barely able to qualify for their $500,000 2 bedroom home in Calgary, Edmonton or Toronto, will be faced with layoffs, higher interest rates, and decreasing home values, as the market is flooded with homes for sale. Banks will be scorned for giving out mortgages to people based on housing prices that have doubled since 2003, when these prices were clearly not sustainable.

Canada is now in the early stages of baby boomer retirements. These boomers grew up counting on the government paying for their retirements. Many of them do not have adequate savings, or pensions aside from the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security. They will need to downsize from their McMansions, especially with heating costs and gas costs skyrocketing, not to mention commodity prices and general inflation. These boomers downsizing, as well as the strain they will put on the health care system, does not bode well for the overall economy.

Many Canadians are in for a rude awakening in a short period of time. Remember when oil was $27 a barrel. You should, it was only 4 years ago. ..

[Manner of Speaking]

[Manner of Speaking]

[Leavingkorea]

[Paddycakes]

I believe in economic history, which basically shows that things go in cycles.

We've had a long period of economic growth, and now we'll probably go into a downswing, and then after a few years there will be another upswing.

Housing bubble: You've seen the average house price in Vancouver? It's insane.