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[Tiger Beer]

[mithridates]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[Tiger Beer]

10% is quite impressive though.

No one expected him to get anything. He's competing with about five much more popularly-recognized and media-given candidates.

Not only that, but I just don't think of Iowa when I think of true libertarian values. I think of many other states, but I definetely don't think of Iowa.

When I think of Iowa, I think of law-abiding citizens who seem to have just voted for a person who will create more laws based on religious convictions.

No one thinks of Iowa being a bunch of lone ranger types with strong libertarian streaks.

In other words, 10% with that line-up of Republican competition is interesting in itself, and gives an interesting sense that there is a segment of the Republican base that does want a Ron Paul person in office. It's nearly as much as who supported McCain - 13% I believe.

[igotthisguitar]

[Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee]

Ron Paul got 10%.

There was a poll.

What is your favorite ice cream

The choices were

Chocolate . Chocolate fudge Chocolate Cherry and Vanilla

Vanilla did as well as Chocolate fudge.


Romney, McCain , Gullani , and Thomson all compete for the same voters.

Would a Romeny , McCain , Gullani , or Thomson supporter vote for Ron Paul?




The McCain menace.

[huffdaddy]

[Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee]

Most Republican voters don't like him.

Or a more accurate way of saying this is McCain , Romney , Gullani and / or Thomson supporters don't Ron Paul even a little.

[igotthisguitar]

[Ya-ta Boy]

[ontheway]

Ron Paul was written off in Iowa long ago. Everyone said he was below 1%, then between 1% and 2% ... no one expected him to break 10% in a Republican caucus.

An analysis of the Republican caucus voters shows that 60% were evangelical Christians. This dominance of the Iowa caucus system by such a non representative group is why the Iowa caucuses are such a poor predictor of the final nominee. These people voted overwhelmingly for Huckabee.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080104/ap_po/caucus_poll_glance

Among those who identified themselves as independents at the caucuses, Ron Paul was the winner with 29% of the vote.


Clearly, Iowa was a victory for Ron Paul. His stats continue to rise, and as long as his numbers are improving, from zero not so long ago to 10% now, in a state that is well known among libertarians as the least libertarian state outside of Washington DC, this can be counted as good news.

[ontheway]

Let's look at the results:

Candidate ... # of votes ... percent ... delegates

Huckabee ........ 39,814 .......34% ......... 17
Romney ............29,405 .......25% ........ 12

Thompson .........15,521 .......13% ......... 3
McCain ............. 15,248 .......13% ......... 3
Paul ..................11,598 ........10% ........ 2

Giuliani ...............4,013 ..........4% ........ 0
Hunter ...................515 ..........1% .........0


There are clearly 3 groups here:

First, the big delegate winners:

The Iowa winner, Huckabee, has made an amazing showing. But these were radical Christian voters and likely not a trend that will continue, unless the Republican Party melts down to a tiny Falwellesque core. He got almost no votes outside the religious fringe. Still, a winner.

Romney spent over $17 million in Iowa and could only buy second place. He spent more money than all the other candidates combined. Loser.


Second group: These three are in the same range of support and delegates.

McCain has managed to jump start his campaign by picking up disaffected Rudy voters. He has replaced Giulinani as a vialble candidate. Winner.

Thompson is not doing so well considering he was expected to enter the race in the top tier. He is not showing the great numbers expected, he has no "fire in the belly" and is not raising much money. He'll drop out if he doesn't pick up some momentum in New Hampshire. Loser.

Ron Paul has earned two delegates to the National Convention in a state where he was expected to get nothing. His campaign is still growing. He needs to do better in New Hampshire. Winner.


The final group. These two are finished. Third tier and out of the race:

Giuliani, the man who made attacking Ron Paul his mantra, is finished, along with Rep. Hunter who never got off the ground. Losers.

[agentX]

I doubt Iowa will be the last we'll see of Paul. Even the MSNBC analysts say he'll be a big spoiler thru Super Tuesday.
Yes, he commands the racist vote, and the kook vote, and the angry independent vote. Which will help him a lot in the big states where the bulk of his fanbase is located.
But Huck has the evangelicals, who vote in lockstep for anyone who best resembles their idiotic thought process. And Huck is their guy for now...
However, he habitually makes himself look bad/inept. And I doubt that he's gonna look more presidential come Super Tuesday.
However, that doesn't help Paul. That helps Romney and Giuliani.
Another Giuliani screw-up will help Paul. And maybe another McCain screwup. But that's doubtful.
The people who vote for Giuliani will be most likely to switch to Paul. After that there's the McCain folks. But the religious kooks aren't gonna switch to Paul, so he's Dead Man Walking in the Gay Old Party.

Now, if Paul wins the nomination somehow, then that's virtually guarantees a victory for the Dems. So, go Ron Paul! Split the Gay Old Party into 2 or 3 factions! Force Huck or McCain to run as an "Independent". It's a guaranteed landslide.

[ontheway]

Looking at county results in Iowa gives an idea of what may come as the Ron Paul revolution has more time to organize. The Paul campaign was at zero in the first quarter of 2007, and had little money until the Oct money bomb. Serious organizing was possible only in the last 2 months.

Huckabee had the existing Christian organization, Romney spent $17 million and McCain has been building an Iowa organization for over a decade.


Throughout Iowa�s 99 counties Ron Paul finished 1st in 1, 2nd in 4, and 3rd in 11. In Osceola County Ron Paul finished 2nd behind Huckabee, behind by only 12 votes (25% to 30%).

[Gopher]