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Nuclear advocates: So there exists a safe dose of radiation?
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Big_Bird



Joined: 31 Jan 2003
Location: Sometimes here sometimes there...

PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 4:35 am    Post subject: Nuclear advocates: So there exists a safe dose of radiation? Reply with quote

This is a very interesting interview with a recently deseased expert (and researcher) on radiation: John Gofman. He argues that there isn't a safe level of radiation.

John Gofman vs. the Nuclear Cowboys

It's a long article, but well worth the time taken to read it. For those of you less inclined, I've selected a few tasty morsels as follows:

Quote:
[The Department of Energy has been] saying there's a safe dose when there has never been any valid evidence for a safe dose of radiation. Yet the DOE and others continue to talk about their "zero-risk model."


Quote:
How would a safe level of radiation come about? It could come about in theory if the biological repair mechanisms --which exist and which will repair DNA and chromosomes-- work perfectly. Then a low dose of radiation might be totally repaired. The problem, though, is that the repair mechanisms don't work perfectly. There are those lesions in DNA and chromosomes that are unrepairable. There are those where the repair mechanisms don't get to the site and so they go unrepaired. And there are those lesions where the repair mechanisms simply cause misrepair. We can say that between 50 and 90 percent of the damage done by ionizing radiation is repaired perfectly. What we are then seeing is harm done by the residual 10 or 40 or 50 percent that is not repaired perfectly. The evidence that the repair mechanism is not perfect is very solid today. What we wanted to have was evidence that as you go down to very low doses --a raed, or a tenth of a rad-- is that going to produce cancer? Determing the answer by standard epidemiological studies would take millions of people, and we don't have that. So it creates a field day for the DOE to say, "Well, we don't know." But I looked very carefully in 1986 for any studies that could shed light on that all-important queston. And I presented that evidence at the American Chemical Society meeting in Anaheim.


Quote:
Q: That the lowest doses will produce cancer?

Gofman: The answer is this: ionizing radiation is not like a poison out of a bottle where you can dilute it and dilute it. The lowest dose of ionizing radiation is one nuclear track through one cell. You can't have a fraction of a dose of that sort. Either a track goes through the nucleus and affects it, or it doesn't. So I said 'What evidence do we have concerning one, or two or three or four or six or 10 tracks.' And I came up with nine studies of cancer being produced where we're dealing with up to maybe eight or 10 tracks per cell. Four involved breast cancer. With those studies, as far as I'm concerned, it's not a question of "We don't know." The DOE has never refuted this evidence. They just ignore it, because it's inconvenient. We can now say, there cannot be a safe dose of radiation. There is no safe threshhold. If this truth is known, then any permitted radiation is a permit to commit murder.


Quote:
Q: What are the implications of there being a safe dose of radiation?

Gofman: They don't have to worry about nuclear waste. NO problem --there's a safe dose, nobody's going to get exposed to more than the safe dose.


Quote:
Q: Do you think medical professionals really appreciate how much potential there is for damage? Regardless of who you are, you go into the hospital and you get a chest x-ray as a routine diagnostic procedure.

Gofman: I'm sad to say, I don't think 90% of doctors in this country know a god-damned thing about ionizing radiation and its effect. Somebody polled some pediatricians recently and said "Do you believe there's a safe dose of radiation?" And 45% said "Yes." They weren't asked, "What papers have you ever read on this subject that led you to conclude there's a safe dose?" I think medical education on the hazard of radiation is atrocious.


Quote:
We take the position: if there's a diagnostic gain for you --something that can really make a difference in your health and your life-- then don't forego the x-ray. But there's another part of the picture. Up till recently --it may be a little better now than it was-- government studies show that most hospitals and most offices of radiologists didn't have the foggiest notion of what dose they were giving you for a procedure. Nor did they know that the procedure could be accomplished with a third or a tenth of the dose. Joel Gray, a health physicist at the Mayo Clinic, said there are places giving you 20 times the dose needed for a given picture.


Discussing a 'retroactive tampering of databases' with regard to Hiroshima-Nagasaki:
Quote:
you set things up with blinding, with appropriate procedures, so that your data base is immaculate. You don't go changing things and say, "Well we did it objectively." I said, "Report in the old way --the old dosage-- and the new way." They said, "We won't do that. But we'll consider it. And we will give you the data in the old way for three more years." What's the shape of the cancer curve with the latest data from Hiroshima-Nagasaki? If I use the old data, it's like this (diagonal line). What's the shape of the curve with their new dosimetry? It's like this (slowly rising line that then goes up abruptly).

Q: Making it look as if the low-level of radiation is acceptable?


Gofman: Exactly. Their ultimate goal is fulfilled.
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OneWayTraffic



Joined: 14 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 7:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well speaking as someone who studied physics at university, there is background radiation pretty much anywhere. And radiation isn't equal. Some types are more hazardous than others.

Aside from that, you have to keep in mind that coal plants release more radiation into the environment than nuclear plants. You do know that coal kills thousands of people per year don't you? (Not just miners either-there's premature deaths due to pollution as well.)

But yes, I guess one dose of radiation might give you cancer. And one cigarette might give you cancer, and one trip in a car might get you killed. The risk is proportional to the dosage, that much is quite clear. It's a question of risks vs rewards. without nuclear or coal right now, we'd be up shit creek without a paddle or gumboots.

I'm not actually in support of nuclear per se. But it's not good enough to say "I don't like that." You need to offer a better solution. And right now, as it stands now, we don't have one.
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Justin Hale



Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Location: the Straight Talk Express

PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Big Bird, simple question here, do you fear medical treatment? You don't, right? Why on earth not, given "nuclear operations are responsible for only a tiny part of the radioactivity or radiation we experience in our daily lives � and up to 140 times less than is created by medical treatments"? (link)

I have an analogy for you: which is more dangerous, which would you tell your kid to not touch, the drug Ecstacy, or peanuts? Peanuts are more dangerous, god damn it!

So, peanuts are more dangerous than ecstacy and medical treatment is more dangerous than nuclear energy.

Your beliefs - and the dead fellow's beliefs - are based on fundamental misconceptions about radiation that I haven't the patience to detail further
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Big_Bird



Joined: 31 Jan 2003
Location: Sometimes here sometimes there...

PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 5:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OneWayTraffic wrote:
Well speaking as someone who studied physics at university, there is background radiation pretty much anywhere. And radiation isn't equal. Some types are more hazardous than others.


Hopefully your undergraduate studies would have taught you that there is quite a difference between the ordinary background radiation we recieve from our surroundings (including the food and water we eat) and other types of radiation. Are you going to equate cosmic radiation with gamma radiation or neutron radiation? Isn't that rather like assuring a beachgoer that the sharks he's just seen entering the bay are nothing to worry about, after all you've swum with fish before, right? Yes sharks are fish.

Quote:
without nuclear or coal right now, we'd be up *beep* creek without a paddle or gumboots.


Would we? Necessity is the mother of invention they say, and there may be much potential for other energy sources if only we put more resources and scientists to work on it. We could do a lot to improve our efficacy with regard to energy, too.

Quote:
I'm not actually in support of nuclear per se. But it's not good enough to say "I don't like that." You need to offer a better solution. And right now, as it stands now, we don't have one.


So you're content to watch nuclear power stations be built all over the world and not care to explore the dangers and demand governments be cautious and vigilant? Fortunately there are other people who have 'studied physics at university' who are not as complacent as yourself. These guys do a lot to keep the nuclear industry in check: Union of Concerned Scientists

Some years ago I recall reading about how there have been many 'near misses' with regard to nuclear power plants in America, over the years. It seems that a measure of good luck has prevented a catastrophic event taking place there.

And how about developing nations following our example? I feel a lot happier about France using nuclear power than I do a developing country which may sucumb to violent political turmoil in the future. Depending on conditions, we may suffer the fallout of nuclear catastrophe taking place in a far away land that followed our example.

Isn't it better for us to focus on becoming more efficient, less wasteful, and pouring resources and talent into developing better alternatives.
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Big_Bird



Joined: 31 Jan 2003
Location: Sometimes here sometimes there...

PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin Hale wrote:
Big Bird, simple question here, do you fear medical treatment? You don't, right? Why on earth not, given "nuclear operations are responsible for only a tiny part of the radioactivity or radiation we experience in our daily lives � and up to 140 times less than is created by medical treatments"? (link)

I have an analogy for you: which is more dangerous, which would you tell your kid to not touch, the drug Ecstacy, or peanuts? Peanuts are more dangerous, god damn it!

So, peanuts are more dangerous than ecstacy and medical treatment is more dangerous than nuclear energy.

Your beliefs - and the dead fellow's beliefs - are based on fundamental misconceptions about radiation that I haven't the patience to detail further


What utter garble! By your poor logic I should not worry about making sure my toddler is supervised around the swimming pool, because after all he could get killed on a car trip in his grandmother's Ford!

And let me ask you a simple question. Given the choice of two facilities, one that would X-ray your chest using 5 rads, or one that would X-ray you using 20 millirads [a 50th of a rad] - which would you choose?
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 7:01 pm    Post subject: Re: Nuclear advocates: So there exists a safe dose of radiat Reply with quote

Big_Bird wrote:
when there has never been any valid evidence for a safe dose of radiation[/b].


Please. Radiation is well understood. Radiation and exposure is also well studied. Do a pubmed search of radiation and exposure and you there are over 48,000 scientific papers.

Define "valid evidence".
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Justin Hale



Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Location: the Straight Talk Express

PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The point stands. Medical treatment produces 140-times more radiation than nuclear power. Clueless lefties and environmentalists, who are no less of a threat to civilization than Muslims, zionists and carbon dioxide, should get a clue.

Big Bird wrote:
Some years ago I recall reading about how there have been many 'near misses' with regard to nuclear power plants in America, over the years. It seems that a measure of good luck has prevented a catastrophic event taking place there.


Three Mile Island was the worst accident one can imagine in a western power reactor (a core meltdown). The small amount of radioactivity which escaped was quite innocuous. No-one died or was injured. This just in: nuclear power reactors are specifically designed for that purpose. Laughing
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ED209



Joined: 17 Oct 2006

PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:09 pm    Post subject: Re: Nuclear advocates: So there exists a safe dose of radiat Reply with quote

mindmetoo wrote:
Big_Bird wrote:
when there has never been any valid evidence for a safe dose of radiation[/b].


Please. Radiation is well understood. Radiation and exposure is also well studied. Do a pubmed search of radiation and exposure and you there are over 48,000 scientific papers.

Define "valid evidence".


I'd be interested to learn if any of these cover spider bites.
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To whom would you address this advice, Big_Bird: nuclear-power advocates like the Iranian, Venezuelan, and other Third-World govts? Or only Western, industrialized nuclear-power advocates? Or both?

Finally, please clarify. Do you oppose the Iranian govt's current endeavors?
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JMO



Joined: 18 Jul 2006
Location: Daegu

PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 1:48 am    Post subject: Re: Nuclear advocates: So there exists a safe dose of radiat Reply with quote

ED209 wrote:
mindmetoo wrote:
Big_Bird wrote:
when there has never been any valid evidence for a safe dose of radiation[/b].


Please. Radiation is well understood. Radiation and exposure is also well studied. Do a pubmed search of radiation and exposure and you there are over 48,000 scientific papers.

Define "valid evidence".


I'd be interested to learn if any of these cover spider bites.


I just gut laughed for a few minutes..
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OneWayTraffic



Joined: 14 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 6:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Big_Bird wrote:
OneWayTraffic wrote:
Well speaking as someone who studied physics at university, there is background radiation pretty much anywhere. And radiation isn't equal. Some types are more hazardous than others.


Hopefully your undergraduate studies would have taught you that there is quite a difference between the ordinary background radiation we recieve from our surroundings (including the food and water we eat) and other types of radiation. Are you going to equate cosmic radiation with gamma radiation or neutron radiation? Isn't that rather like assuring a beachgoer that the sharks he's just seen entering the bay are nothing to worry about, after all you've swum with fish before, right? Yes sharks are fish.

Only by going by the most general classification of fish i.e. non tetrapod vertabrate. Anywho, I wasn't recommending that you go out and eat plutonium so don't put words in my mouth. Gamma radiation is produced naturally all the time. So are neutrons and others. Most of it doesn't reach us, it's adsorbed within stars or within the crust. That's why there's a whole heap of shielding around nuclear reactors. It's to keep the hard stuff in.
Quote:


Quote:
without nuclear or coal right now, we'd be up *beep* creek without a paddle or gumboots.


Would we? Necessity is the mother of invention they say, and there may be much potential for other energy sources if only we put more resources and scientists to work on it. We could do a lot to improve our efficacy with regard to energy, too.

May be isn't a solid basis of public policy. And I agree with you on the first point, specifically with regards to algae biodiesel, cellulose ethanol, artifical photosynthesis, high altitude wind energy harvested by tethered gryocopters 10,000 meters high, space power satellites beaming power back via microwaves to earth based rectifiers and optical wavelength rectifiers replacing currently expensive triple junction pv cells. Plenty of options which need exploration, but none of them are here and now. And here and now is what people with real money tend to put it in, if they want to make a profit. That's why venture funding only attracts high risk capital-it's high risk. I certainly think many of these things can work, but it's still unknown how many of them can provide economic baseload power/fuel.

Efficiency, unfortunately, runs against economic principles. People may drive a more efficient car further rather than save money. Or they may get two, as now they can afford it.

Quote:


Quote:
I'm not actually in support of nuclear per se. But it's not good enough to say "I don't like that." You need to offer a better solution. And right now, as it stands now, we don't have one.


So you're content to watch nuclear power stations be built all over the world and not care to explore the dangers and demand governments be cautious and vigilant? Fortunately there are other people who have 'studied physics at university' who are not as complacent as yourself. These guys do a lot to keep the nuclear industry in check: Union of Concerned Scientists

I certainly think that the western world builds its power stations to a very high degree of safety. Just what kind of safety standards would satisfy you? And FYI I come from a country with zero nuclear powerstations. I think that its time for NZ to consider it. We don't have to build one, but we should at least consider the pros and cons rationally.
Quote:

Some years ago I recall reading about how there have been many 'near misses' with regard to nuclear power plants in America, over the years. It seems that a measure of good luck has prevented a catastrophic event taking place there.

Or it could be the triple redundant passively safe backups coupled with containment enclosures around the plants.
Quote:


And how about developing nations following our example? I feel a lot happier about France using nuclear power than I do a developing country which may sucumb to violent political turmoil in the future. Depending on conditions, we may suffer the fallout of nuclear catastrophe taking place in a far away land that followed our example.


It's a problem, but one that is solvable by requiring international standards, not trying for a blanket ban, which would be ignored anyway. FYI I understand that most of the new reactors in third world countries are built by American, Japanese and Korean companies. They build to the highest standards.

Isn't it better for us to focus on becoming more efficient, less wasteful, and pouring resources and talent into developing better alternatives.[/quote]

Of course it's better, but then it would be better for the rest of the planet if our species never existed. We are what we are. I happen to think that nuclear is much cleaner than its current alternative, only coal is capable of competing really. I would like to see more research into alternative energy, but that's happening now. I'm hoping that one of the many aneutronic fusion schemes in small scale development (eg Polywell) will prove workable and we'll find the holy grail.

But I won't bet the house on it.[/quote]
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OneWayTraffic



Joined: 14 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tell you what BigBird. I'll give you the website addresses of some companies researching alternative energy, and you can invest your own personal dollars into it.

www.emc2fusion.org is a good start. Founded by Dr Robert Bussard (of the Startrek Bussard collector fame) it's a novel modification of the Farnsworth fusor (a device that actually works and can be built for a school science project-its been done.) The original Farnsworth fusor couldn't make breakeven but was valuble as a neutron source. This device, if it works will.

Bussard was funded by the Navy and poured the last years of his life into this, as he was dying of cancer. He's had impeccable credentials, and he thought it could work. A google search will give you a tech talk that he gave google before the Navy continued funding last year. It's 90minutes long but worth it as he gives a rather entertaining speech, if you can handle the physics.

He's gone through several iterations of his design, starting with solid state magnets as a proof of concept and coming up with sucessively better configurations of electromagnets. The idea is that the electromagnets confine electrons, which then confine a plasma of nucleii. Boron atoms are injected into this electron bottle, where they will stay shooting around at high speeds near the center of the well (where occasional collisions will cause fusion) and then spending time at the outskirts of the well in the low potential energy area. It's a non Maxwellian plasma, so some people think that Bremstralung will be a problem, absorbing 1.2 times the fusion output, while others calculate that due to the small amount of time the Boron atoms spend at the high velocities needed for fusion, there won't be sufficient thermalisation for Bremstralung to be a problem.

He claims to have this cracked, and many people who've looked into it agree. Only way to find out for sure is to build WB6 (wiffleball 6) and find out. The previous WB6 gave results many orders of magnitude higher than similar systems (at the same well depth and drive power) though the time it ran before self destruction was too short to be absolutely clear. The Navy has continued funding and I guess the next WB6 will be ready next year. He's received a lot of attention in certain circles and if it works the world will change.

The power of these reactors scales as the seventh power of the radius so a reactor a couple of meters across will make significant power. They should be able to burn Boron with protons or Helium 3 releasing primarily high energy alpha particles as output, no high energy neutrons inducing radiation in the reactor. The aneutronic nature of these reactions allows direct energy transfer by decelerating the products in a charged grid. No thermal powerplant needed. Efficiencies may approach 80% or more theorectically.

No waste, very little radioactivity. No heavy metals poisoning the environment for thousands of years. Now go and make a donation.



If nothing else this should convince you that I spend more time looking at alternatives than you ever have. I wrote that from memory, though most of it's on wiki.
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contrarian



Joined: 20 Jan 2007
Location: Nearly in NK

PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2008 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All the hype, moaning, whining and scare tactics aside; the known death toll from chernobyl is less than 100 and the US accident at Three Mile Island is zero/
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mindmetoo



Joined: 02 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2008 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

contrarian wrote:
All the hype, moaning, whining and scare tactics aside; the known death toll from chernobyl is less than 100 and the US accident at Three Mile Island is zero/


Indeed. The petrochemical industry kills far more people. And let's not even talk about the number of deaths from emissions.
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moosehead



Joined: 05 May 2007

PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

contrarian wrote:
All the hype, moaning, whining and scare tactics aside; the known death toll from chernobyl is less than 100 and the US accident at Three Mile Island is zero/



you really might want to get out more - where on earth did you read such ludicrous ramblings? or did you just make it up ? Shocked

FOCCUS is a nonprofit org that has worked extensively with survivors and families who were displaced and suffered health problems due to Chernobyl. The exact estimate of those consequences will never be known because of the extent of radiation was spread across the borders of different countries who chose to act, or not act, accordingly. the subsequent break up of the soviet union also contributed to a situation where accountability towards the victims was minimized, families were uprooted and the numbers just weren't kept.

as for 3 mile island - what we do know is the leak of radioactivity that did take place was of a sort that dissipates quickly - but at the same time, considering the densely populated area, no doubt many people absorbed doses of what can cause thyroid dysfunctions and other health problems. considering also the highly mobile population of the u.s., it is fairly uncertain what those results were, and who would have been affected, since many health concerns would not appear for a considerable number of years.
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