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Feb 9th & 10th Primaries

 
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong

PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 4:37 pm    Post subject: Feb 9th & 10th Primaries Reply with quote

Huckabee takes Kansas, Louisana as well.
Obama takes Nebraska, Washington, Louisana and the Virgin Is. On Sunday Obama also took the Maine Caucus


Last edited by Milwaukiedave on Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:19 pm; edited 4 times in total
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obama was winning nearly 70 percent support in Nebraska, compared with 31 percent for Clinton, in caucuses with 24 delegates at stake.

He also had 67 percent support in Washington state caucuses, compared with 32 percent for Clinton with returns tallied from about one-half of the state's precincts. There were 78 delegates at stake, the largest single prize of the night.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp


Those are BIG margins of victory for Obama. It's starting to look like Obama can really do it.

From the same article: [McCain] lost Kansas caucuses to Mike Huckabee, gaining less than 24 percent of the vote.

Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, got nearly 60 percent
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong

PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I'm still holding my breath. Anything is possible. They are talking on CNN about the fact Clinton needs to win something before Mar 7th. I would bet she will pull one or two out. It would be dumb to underestimate her.

Roland Martin (CNN contributor and talk-show host on WVON-AM in Chicago, Illinois) on CNN said no one should be pushed out so the rest of the country has a chance to have a say in things. I have to agree with him, even if it appears someone has won the nomination, everyone should have a say.

Note: He's defending Huckabee, just to put it in context.
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong

PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Next up:

Tuesday Feb 12 The Potomac Primary: Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Tuesday Feb 19 Wisconsin and Hawaii (Caucus).
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Tiger Beer



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Milwaukiedave wrote:
Next up:

Tuesday Feb 12 The Potomac Primary: Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Tuesday Feb 19 Wisconsin and Hawaii (Caucus).

The Potomac Primary will be interesting, really difficult to predict where those votes would go.

A little bit southern caucasian - good for Huckabee and Clinton
A little bit african-american - good for Obama.
Conservative/traditional - good for Clinton and McCain
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stillnotking



Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA

PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obama sweeps the Potomac Primaries tomorrow. Clinton is already spinning that she "didn't get to spend much time" in Virginia, which is politician-speak for "I'm going to lose, so don't get your hopes up". The other two she never had a chance in.

Hawaii is Obama's home state, and a caucus state to boot, so he will win handily there. He'll almost certainly win Wisconsin too, if more narrowly. Clinton really needed Maine as a media firewall if nothing else; her getting crushed there was very demoralizing to her campaign. She just fired her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, in fact. (Oh, excuse me, I mean Doyle discovered a heretofore-unsuspected burning desire to spend more time with her family.)

Clinton can't win another state until March 4, when Texas is her best pickup opportunity. But who knows? Three weeks is a long time in primary season, and can she really go that long without a single win? Rudy Giuliani tried it and failed miserably. Three weeks of pro-Obama media coverage is going to be tough, both on her fundraising, her supporters, and most importantly "her" super delegates (remember super delegates can always change their minds).

At this point the race is Obama's to lose. Barring a stunning upset somewhere, or an en masse declaration of support by the super delegates, Hillary is done.

Edit: Richard Morris (he goes by a nickname that Dave's apparently does not like)agrees with me.

Quote:
Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.
March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probable wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas' open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).
And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.

And don't bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.

Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.
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