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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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 Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:39 am Post subject: |
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Regards to the earlier comment about more Democrats voting in the
primary. |
Not to be confrontational, but do you have anything from 2004 that indicates Dems outnumber Reps by more than 2-1?
My sense of things is that Obama is bringing out boat-loads of people who were only mildly interested or apathetic last time around. |
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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| Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 7:40 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Quote: |
Regards to the earlier comment about more Democrats voting in the
primary. |
Not to be confrontational, but do you have anything from 2004 that indicates Dems outnumber Reps by more than 2-1?
My sense of things is that Obama is bringing out boat-loads of people who were only mildly interested or apathetic last time around. |
Nationwide it 5 dems per 4 reps.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/neuharth/2004-01-22-neuharth_x.htm
"An estimated 201.5 million U.S. citizens age 18 or over will be eligible to vote Nov. 2, although many are not now registered.
Of these, about 55 million are registered Republicans. About 72 million registered Democrats.
About 42 million are registered as independents, under some other minor party or with a "No Party" designation."
Points of contention are not always confrontational. |
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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| Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: |
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Just to add some contention to the content posted by me in the last post.
This article gives a 3 - 2 ratio.
"That's the real beauty of our two-party system. Neither major party is
strong enough to win with just its stalwarts. The winner must capture a
majority of independents, crossovers or newly registered voters.
Estimated numbers this year:
204 million eligible voters (age 18 or older)
63 million registered Democrats
47 million registered Republicans
32 million registered as independents or with minor party
62 million not registered
Eight years ago, with George Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in the
race, 55% of eligible voters went to the polls. Four years ago, Clinton,
Bob Dole and Perot turned out only 49%, an all-time low."
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnists/neuharth/neu057.htm
I'm having trouble finding more current information. |
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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cbclark4
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Location: Masan
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 8:15 am Post subject: |
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Comparing turnout in this particular primary isn't too useful, because the Republican primary is, for all intents and purposes, over. That tends to kill turnout.
However, every primary this cycle has had way higher D turnout than R. Whether this will translate into enthusiasm in the general election remains to be seen. It's hard to imagine any modern Presidential candidate getting 2/3 of the vote, so I think it's safe to say the turnout won't match up exactly. Republicans will rally around McCain over the next 8 months. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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The Wisconsin turnout was the latest evidence that the trend that started with the Iowa caucus is still continuing. Republican turnout has been up, but Democrats are turning out in massive numbers.
The question is: Why?
How much of it is the opportunity to support the first (viable) black, the first woman candidate?
How much is it disgust at the Bush policies of the last 7 years?
Lots of attention has been paid to the first. Not enough to the second. |
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Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
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| Posted: Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Clearly it's both. I also think it's a general shift in how we want our government to work. Bush's administration has been the culmination of the trend we've had since Eisenhower, Dem or Rep admin/Congress, and I think people are sick of it. Negative campaigning still works, but has also blown up in a few people's faces this time around. I'm hopeful that this trend will continue, and not just through November. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:28 am Post subject: |
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Obama just won another small primary:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hUPSXLSf9BMjfyPSCc2sdK8RtV8QD8UUOV8O1
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Obama Wins Democrats Abroad Primary
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER � 44 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) � Barack Obama won the Democrats Abroad global primary in results announced Thursday, giving him 11 straight victories in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Illinois senator won the primary in which Democrats living in other countries voted by Internet, mail and in person.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has not won a nominating contest since Super Tuesday, more than two weeks ago.
More than 20,000 U.S. citizens living abroad voted in the primary, which ran from Feb. 5 to Feb. 12. Obama won about 65 percent of the vote, according to results released by the Democrats Abroad, an organization sanctioned by the national party.
Voters living in 164 countries cast votes online, while expatriates voted in person in more than 30 countries, at hotels in Australia and Costa Rica, at a pub in Ireland and at a Starbucks in Thailand. The results took about a week to tabulate as local committees around the globe gathered ballots.
"This really gives Americans an opportunity to participate," said Christine Schon Marques, the international chair of Democrats Abroad.
There is no comparable primary among Republicans, though the GOP has several contests this weekend in U.S. territories, including party caucuses in Puerto Rico Sunday.
Obama's win comes just two days after he defeated Clinton in a primary in Wisconsin and caucuses in Hawaii. He leads Clinton 1,351 delegates to 1,262 delegates, not including the 7 delegates yet to be awarded based on the global primary voting results.
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Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
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stevemcgarrett
Joined: 24 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Sat Feb 23, 2008 6:35 am Post subject: |
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MD fretted:
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| I said yesterday that I really thought Wisconsin would be close, though I hoped I was wrong. I can say today, I'm glad I was wrong making that prediction. |
I said after the Iowa primary results that Obama would take Wisconsin by a wider margin. It's my home state and they won't be outdone by Hawkeyes. Its Dem Party politics are more progressive than elsewhere in the upper Midwest too.
Sometimes ya just have to listen to good ol' Dad.  |
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