| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
W.T.Carl
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
|
 Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| Believe what you want. It has happened (almost). Can you say McGovern in '72? DEAD MEAT. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Czarjorge
Joined: 01 May 2007
Location: I now have the same moustache, and it is glorious.
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:11 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Hillary will win Pennsylvania by 8 points. And this crap will keep going. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:27 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Czarjorge wrote: |
| Hillary will win Pennsylvania by 8 points. And this crap will keep going. |
Yep. 8 points is probably a bit optimistic; Hillary could easily pull off a 10-12 point win.
Not that it makes a damn bit of difference to her prospects, though the media will have a grand old time talking about how she is "back in the race". |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 1:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Unless Hillary gets 60-40, 58-42 if we're generous, chalk it up as an Obama victory. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Milwaukiedave
Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 5:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I'm with SNK, I think she'll win by 10%. Look at the polls in Ohio, they showed it a lot closer then it really was. If he loses by more then 12% it could be problematic, depending on the delegate split. If she only wins by 7-8% I'll be totally shocked.
Then again, I said I thought Wisconsin would be close. I was dead wrong on that one. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
|
| Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2008 1:05 am Post subject: |
|
|
It's about that time to stick in the dipstick and see the oil level, folks.
New Polls
| Quote: |
And to add to all of this, new polls out today show that if anything, Obama's bitter comments and the controversial debate performance on Wednesday seem to be HELPING him.
* Rasmussen's new poll of PA has Clinton leading Obama 47% to 44%. Last week, she led 50% to 41%, meaning she fell 3% and Obama gained 3%. This poll falls into line with a few others that have also showed some small movement away from Clinton. Considering how Clinton's camp and the media tried to spin recent events in her favor, for her to drop in polls is disasterous. Again, she HAS to win PA by 10+ points, otherwise it is going to be viewed as a loss for her. She still can do it, but obviously the race is pretty tight in the state right now.
* And the real shocker is SurveyUSA's new Indiana poll which now has Barack Obama beating Clinton, 50% to 45! Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton winning 55% to 39%! That means she fell 10% in one week while Obama moved up 11%. That is a HUGE swing and indicates some major stuff impacting the preference of voters. As many expected, Clinton overplaying her hand with Obama's "bitter" comments may have ended up hurting her. As I've been saying, for Clinton to survive, she needs to win PA by 10+, lose NC by less than 10, and win Indiana. She is now in danger of not pulling off any of that. |
A commenter on the website had this to say
| Quote: |
One should add that Gallup has Clinton within 3 points of Obama today (44:47)
which is not so bad news for her. |
Do you believe these most recent polls? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 11:19 am Post subject: |
|
|
Wow... I hadn't been keeping track. That's some amazing poll movement in Indiana; it's hard to credit, really, but it is SUSA.
I still think Hillary wins PA by 10. The only reason she might not is if her supporters start feeling like the race is over. Which it is, of course, but obviously a candidate's supporters never want to believe that. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
R. S. Refugee
Joined: 29 Sep 2004
Location: Shangra La, ROK
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| agentX wrote: |
That means she fell 10% in one week while Obama moved up 11%. That is a HUGE swing and indicates some major stuff impacting the preference of voters. |
I think the voters just don't want someone who tosses down shots of whiskey like she does answering the phone at 3 am. "Say whut?*#$@? Don't ya know it's 3 am, you a**hole?????????"
  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| R. S. Refugee wrote: |
| agentX wrote: |
That means she fell 10% in one week while Obama moved up 11%. That is a HUGE swing and indicates some major stuff impacting the preference of voters. |
I think the voters just don't want someone who tosses down shots of whiskey like she does answering the phone at 3 am. "Say whut?*#$@? Don't ya know it's 3 am, you a**hole?????????"
|
Here's another Clinton supporter explaining why he supports Clinton. He uses the same word I have to contrast Clinton from Obama. Starts with a C. No, Plig, its not one of your favorite C-words to describe Clinton, either. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
agentX
Joined: 12 Oct 2007
Location: Jeolla province
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 5:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
You're going to have to help me with this one.
Capacity? He says something about age.
Cluelessness? Does Prof. Loury know about the NAFTA flaps?
Convinced? Well, she did start at the election season pretty convinced that she would win it all.
Chin up?
Controversy? Doesn't she have too much of that already?
Competence? He still think she is competent after how many scandals she and her hubby have caused? If he's arguing that she's more competent than McCain then it's understandable. Other than that, where was her competence on Iraq and Iran?
This Bloggingheads things is really cool. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
|
| Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 10:16 am Post subject: |
|
|
Wow -- a huge swing from SUSA, who now have it as Clinton 50, Obama 44.
If Clinton only wins PA by six points, her campaign is probably over. (For one thing, that would effectively eliminate any chance of closing the popular-vote gap, which Clinton has pushed as a key argument.) I would love to believe this poll, but I still don't think it will be quite that close. We'll see. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
