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R. S. Refugee
Joined: 29 Sep 2004
Location: Shangra La, ROK
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 Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject: We will bury you . . . |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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Wishful thinking. She is not in any coffins at this time. Neither is Obama out of any coffins, either.
It remains a closely contested, undecided race. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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The implication is that Hillary Clinton is hurting Obama's nomination party? Tom Toles simply doesn't understand politics.
The last seven primaries have registered over 1 million new Democrats
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The contest between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama has engaged enough new voters to change the political makeup of the country, experts say. The next several months -- and the general election in November -- will reveal the extent of the shift. Is it a temporary increase in interest resulting from a close election between historic candidates? Or is it a seismic swing in party realignment that foretells the end of the red-blue stalemate?
"We are likely to set an all-time record for primary turnout," said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. "Whether this makes a major historical impact depends on who these voters are and whether or not they get what they want." |
I have no doubt that many Obama supporters revile Hillary. But, when Obama wins in November, it will be partly because she brought new voters into the Democratic fold. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
Wishful thinking. She is not in any coffins at this time. Neither is Obama out of any coffins, either.
It remains a closely contested, undecided race. |
Clinton's only path to victory is to convince the super delegates to vote against the pledged delegates at the Convention. That's extraordinarily unlikely, because it represents a tremendous political risk -- even if an SD thinks Obama won't win in November, he'd still be better off voting for him, because he can shrug and say "it's the will of the voters".
In all likelihood, Obama will have 2024 delegates by late May or early June. At that point Clinton has no choice but to drop out, because her only hope would be to persuade SDs who have already endorsed Obama to switch their votes. That's no hope at all -- she'd have to raise enough money to stay viable for two months while getting hammered by the media, and very likely the Dem party elders as well.
I've gained immense respect for Clinton's tenacity -- I thought it'd be over in March -- but she can't work miracles. It's the endgame, and she's too far down to recover. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: |
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I hate them both now. I started with Richardson and moved on to Clinton. I don't like that she is wimping out of ending the war and looked to Obama. He and his wife are new-left post-modern yet religious academic types. Can't stand them.
John McCain, 2008. He has my vote. Oh, wait. The war.
Ron Paul, whatever.. |
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kabrams
Joined: 15 Mar 2008
Location: your Dad's house
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| I have no doubt that many Obama supporters revile Hillary |
More Obama supporters would vote for Clinton than Clinton supporters would vote for Obama.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:12 pm Post subject:
Gopher wrote:
Wishful thinking. She is not in any coffins at this time. Neither is Obama out of any coffins, either.
It remains a closely contested, undecided race.
Clinton's only path to victory is to convince the super delegates to vote against the pledged delegates at the Convention. That's extraordinarily unlikely, because it represents a tremendous political risk -- even if an SD thinks Obama won't win in November, he'd still be better off voting for him, because he can shrug and say "it's the will of the voters".
In all likelihood, Obama will have 2024 delegates by late May or early June. At that point Clinton has no choice but to drop out, because her only hope would be to persuade SDs who have already endorsed Obama to switch their votes. That's no hope at all -- she'd have to raise enough money to stay viable for two months while getting hammered by the media, and very likely the Dem party elders as well.
I've gained immense respect for Clinton's tenacity -- I thought it'd be over in March -- but she can't work miracles. It's the endgame, and she's too far down to recover. |
Point.
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| But, when Obama wins in November, it will be partly because she brought new voters into the Democratic fold. |
Er...wot? What do you mean by this? |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Kabrams: I believe Kuros presupposes an inevitable Democratic victory in November. Given that it seems likely Obama will win the nomination, although anything can happen between today and the convention, I very much hope he has erred in this. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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| But, when Obama wins in November, it will be partly because she brought new voters into the Democratic fold. |
Er...wot? What do you mean by this? |
Did you follow my link?
When Bush was elected to office, he carried the country with a mere 50 million votes. Because of the last seven democratic primaries, 1 million voters have registered Democrat. Will they all vote Democrat? Not necessarily. But lets assume as many as 30% of them vote Republican (this is the high figure for Hillary supporters who claim will defect should Obama win). That's still 700,000 Democratic voters from seven primaries.
And Obama-lovers like R.S. think this primary is hurting Obama? Its just media noise. Look at the fundamentals. |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| Look at the fundamentals. |
Operation Chaos |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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Hah. That may very well backfire on Rush. Besides, how many votes can we possibly attribute to such an initiative? I gave it 30%, which is generous by any standard.
Anyway, if Rush were so influential, how the hell did John McCain SLAUGHTER Romney?
By fundamentals I meant:
1) Unpopular war in Iraq
2) Falling dollar; high oil prices
3) Largest economic downturn in 20 years; stalled housing market
4) Global Warming verified; but ignored under 6 years of GOP dominance
5) And a failed Presidency by Bush's own standards
Edit: 6) The GOP is a dying breed:
The only reason the GOP has a prayer is they were sensible enough to nominate the only man in the field worth any respect.
Last edited by Kuros on Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:05 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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Operation Feed Rush's Ego, you mean?
Surely you know that whole bit is just a smokescreen. Rush Limbaugh isn't changing the results of the Democratic primary.
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| "Operation Chaos" loyalists have been following orders to mess with exit pollers en masse - by lying to them, Limbaugh says. |
Guy can't even swing his own primary, and now he's supposed to be playing kingmaker for the Democrats. Pull the other one. |
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stillnotking
Joined: 18 Dec 2007
Location: Oregon, USA
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| The only reason the GOP has a prayer is they were sensible enough to nominate the only man in the field worth any respect. |
The last part is true, the first part probably not. The GOP really doesn't have a prayer.
McCain is an absolutely terrible campaigner, too. They might have been better off going with one of their less respectable choices. Who's more respectable, Bob Dole or George W. Bush? |
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R. S. Refugee
Joined: 29 Sep 2004
Location: Shangra La, ROK
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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| stillnotking wrote: |
| Kuros wrote: |
| The only reason the GOP has a prayer is they were sensible enough to nominate the only man in the field worth any respect. |
The last part is true, the first part probably not. The GOP really doesn't have a prayer.
McCain is an absolutely terrible campaigner, too. They might have been better off going with one of their less respectable choices. Who's more respectable, Bob Dole or George W. Bush? |
You're right, stillnotking. The only prayer they have is the WAR PRAYER. Do you think Darth Cheney and his sock puppet might use it? |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
By fundamentals I meant:
1) Unpopular war in Iraq
2) Falling dollar; high oil prices
3) Largest economic downturn in 20 years; stalled housing market
4) Global Warming verified; but ignored under 6 years of GOP dominance
5) And a failed Presidency by Bush's own
standards
Edit: 6) The GOP is a dying breed |
1. The war may be unpopular but McCain is trusted more on Iraq than both Obama or Hillary.
2&3. Please direct your concerns to Mr. Bernanke LINK
4. Global warming? What's the solution? I hope you don't mind cold showers in the dead of winter.
5. The democrats are not as united as you make it out to be. The New Deal Coalition has fallen apart.
If we were to remain on trajectory from now until November, I'd reckon that McCain would win the presidency and the democrat party would pick up gains in the House and Senate. However, we don't live in a vacuum and in the days of the World Wide Web and 24 hour news media, 6 months is an eternity. Show whatever polls you feel necessary, but there's only one that matters; the one on November 3rd. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 5:09 am Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
The implication is that Hillary Clinton is hurting Obama's nomination party? Tom Toles simply doesn't understand politics.
The last seven primaries have registered over 1 million new Democrats
| Quote: |
The contest between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama has engaged enough new voters to change the political makeup of the country, experts say. The next several months -- and the general election in November -- will reveal the extent of the shift. Is it a temporary increase in interest resulting from a close election between historic candidates? Or is it a seismic swing in party realignment that foretells the end of the red-blue stalemate?
"We are likely to set an all-time record for primary turnout," said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. "Whether this makes a major historical impact depends on who these voters are and whether or not they get what they want." |
I have no doubt that many Obama supporters revile Hillary. But, when Obama wins in November, it will be partly because she brought new voters into the Democratic fold. |
Many Hillary supporters are more willing to vote for John McCain should Obama win the nomination or so polls say. And vice versa for Obama supporters It's so bitter right now, that that might very well happen, or they could just stay home in protest. I wouldn't be counting any chickens at this stage in the game yet. |
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