Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Gopher]

Two years after the Israeli-Hezbollah War, we have another, apparently.

[Tjames426]

Syria and Iran

[bucheon bum]

if it were that straight-fwd (Syria and Iran), there wouldn't be a war breaking out now.

[Adventurer]

This is not a war. We are talking about clashes. If it was a bonafide war then the Sunni muftis or the Sunni leadership would have directly given a green light for the Sunni men with guns and RPGs to fully engage Hezbollah and the Druze leader, Jumblatt, has not issued orders to engage Hezbollah in any direct way and to stay home and the seasoned Christian fighters of the Phalange and Lebanese Forces have plenty of men who want to fight, too, but they have been told not to fight and leave the Sunnis to block roads if they want and fight back if warranted when certain areas are crossed. The Shiite mufti just met with the Sunn mufti. No, Iran and Syria do not control Lebanon, but they have a lot of influence, but Hezbollah cannot ignore that the majority of Lebanese voted for the government, that even some of their clerics are criticizing them, and Iran hasn't given a green light for a full frontal assault, and if Saudi Arabia gets too alarmed, they would bless foreign intervention to put Hezbollah into place, but we are not at that point. Hezbollah is powerful, but its allies should know that outsiders and insiders will respond if necessary.


Answer: Hezbollah governs the South and parts of Beirut and the government rules the Druze areas, much of the North, Christian areas that are pro-government, and much of the military in a way. That is limited. By the way, the Christian allies of Hezbollah were absent from the Hezbollah protests. They may be having second thoughts about Hezbollah. It is time for them to think about jumping ship and joining the others. Elias Murr, a Greek Orthodox politician, who was allied with Hezbollah and was in Michel Aoun's camp left Michel Aoun's camp officially a few weeks ago.

[Gopher]

It what we used to call a low-intensity war, Adventurer. And Lebanon is on the way to becoming the next Somalia. Your second paragraph, at least the first couple of sentences, seems to recognize that trend.

[Adventurer]

[Big_Bird]

[Gopher]

No, quite awake. Lebanon was going in a different direction until recently. Sorry my analogy seems to make no sense to you.

[Adventurer]

Hezbollah is going to have cool off. The supporters of the government have to avoid responding except in self-defense. They are bussing in Sunni youths from other cities into Beirut with guns if Hezbollah starts pushing the envelope and crosses a certain red line. That's my guess as to what is happening based on my reading of the situation. I would guess Sunni youths are coming in from Tripoli, Akkar and other Sunni strongholds to back up Hariri in case he needs it. It is a question of most of the Sunnis against many of the Shiites as represented by Hezbollah.
It would be a mistake to confront them head-on.

[Big_Bird]

[Gopher]

Christ. Fighting every inch of each and every observation, even the casual ones.

Very well. I am not the first to draw Lebanon and Somalia together into a comparison and analogy. But I will not dig into the journals to get you a cite or two to show you. I have seen the analogy before, in my view it is a valid one, and you may take it or leave it.

For another thing, the fact that Hezbollah (analogous to a Somali warlord) outguns the Lebanese state (analogous to the Somali state, when there was one), also suggests a comparison. Want another commonality? UN intervention to keep the peace.

In any case, it was a casual observation and not something I care to dissertate here, Big_Bird. However bad the Lebanese norm may be, should Hezbollah continue insisting it governs parts of Lebanon and makes Lebanese foreign policy, things could get much worse. How much worse? See Somalia.

[Summer Wine]

[Adventurer]