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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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 Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 7:43 am Post subject: |
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| blade wrote: |
| Iraqi oil production is only now reaching prewar levels of production and yet people here have me believe that the invasion of Iraq has had no effect on the world price of oil. WTF? |
Not the main reason.
what % did Iraq supply to world markets before 2003?
Well that number ought to be easy to find.
| Quote: |
Is this a war for oil?
One argument against the war, presented by those on the left who question Bush's motives, is that it is intended to capture Iraq's petroleum resources. While there is no way to assess to what extent these resources are a strategic factor in Bush's calculations, those who assert a simple link between oil and the war almost always fail to deal with a number of inconvenient facts. First, if the US wanted its oil companies to have access to the Iraqi market, it could have simply pressed the United Nations to drop sanctions against Iraq. Also, oil is a commodity whose price is set on the world market, as Peter Ferrara points out on National Review Online. Since Iraq has been allowed to sell oil in order to purchase food and other key commodities, it is already contributing to the world supply of oil and thereby lowering the price Americans pay. Finally, as energy expert Daniel Yergin argues, Iraq has only three percent of world production capacity, and to double that "could take more than a decade. In the meantime, growth elsewhere would limit Iraq's eventual share to perhaps 5 percent, significant but still in the second tier of oil nations." |
http://www.spinsanity.org/columns/20030320.html
Let me know if there is a problem with my source. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| blade wrote: |
| Iraqi oil production is only now reaching prewar levels of production and yet people here have me believe that the invasion of Iraq has had no effect on the world price of oil. WTF? |
The price of oil has increased far beyond what even a total collapse in Iraqi production would cause.
There are serious supply issues, beyond Iraq.
here
here
here
here
here
here
The above one is a sign of things to come. The Arabs are 100% full of shit when they talk about their reserves.
| Quote: |
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - OPEC producer Kuwait's oil reserves are only half those officially stated, according to internal Kuwaiti records seen by industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW). |
here
here
And legendary Hedge Fund guru Soros says:
| Quote: |
George Soros: rocketing oil price is a bubble
By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor
Last Updated: 12:53am BST 27/05/2008
Speculators are largely responsible for driving crude prices to their peaks in recent weeks and the record oil price now looks like a bubble, George Soros has warned.
The billionaire investor's comments came only days after the oil price soared to a record high of $135 a barrel amid speculation that crude could soon be catapulted towards the $200 mark. |
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnsoros126.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox]here
So, demand is going up. Supply is "peaking" (for now, at least), and the global pool of money is jumping into commodity markets head first.
I know, we all want to blame George W. Bush for everything, including your stubbed toe. But the reality is that with more people using or being able to use oil, along with the realities of a "NON renewable" resource, oil prices are going to stay high.
BUT. Changes are coming. Trust not big business or big government. Trust the market.
here
here
here
here
here
here
here
here
I reckon that the push away from a car-centered economy will be the next big thing, and not a bubble.
However, there are people who see bubbles in the green tech movement:
here |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: |
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| blade wrote: |
| So just so we're clear. Do you think it was a good idea for the US to have invaded Iraq; Yes/No? |
While we are clarifying: no, I do not and I never did. I have always found this an unwise and unjust war. My only doubts centered around Colin Powell's endorsing it at the UN.
In any case, everything I have read on the war confirms my position.
And yes I also find the antiwar and the 9/11 conspiracy people ranting, and in Bobster's case, chanting, foaming-at-the-mouth idiots.
So I still wish you had started your thread differently. Those who support the war, very, very few people, in my view, will continue to support it no matter what clever angle you cite when approaching the subject. Some of us who do not support the war and never have, on the other hand, might better appreciate such stories as these, which might or might not indicate some of the war's unforeseen consequences, if you and others like you could only present them outside of the antiwar context.
Last edited by Gopher on Tue May 27, 2008 11:55 am; edited 3 times in total |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| I don't like these ideological purity tests. I shouldn't have to have the "correct" opinion about event "A" for my analysis of event "B" to be valid. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| blade wrote: |
| Iraqi oil production is only now reaching prewar levels of production and yet people here have me believe that the invasion of Iraq has had no effect on the world price of oil. WTF? |
Not the main reason.
|
I take it that you admit that the invasion hasn't helped. Now we're getting somewhere.
| Quote: |
what % did Iraq supply to world markets before 2003?
Well that number ought to be easy to find.
|
Iraqi oil production was much lower than it would've been if the Iraq war had never occurred but oil production over the past years was still reduced thanks to the invasion and the resulting damage to Iraqi oil infrastructure. Many billions of dollars have now been spent repairing this infrastructure which could have been put to better use if weren't for the invasion.
| Quote: |
Is this a war for oil?
One argument against the war, presented by those on the left who question Bush's motives, is that it is intended to capture Iraq's petroleum resources. While there is no way to assess to what extent these resources are a strategic factor in Bush's calculations, those who assert a simple link between oil and the war almost always fail to deal with a number of inconvenient facts. First, if the US wanted its oil companies to have access to the Iraqi market, it could have simply pressed the United Nations to drop sanctions against Iraq. Also, oil is a commodity whose price is set on the world market, as Peter Ferrara points out on National Review Online. Since Iraq has been allowed to sell oil in order to purchase food and other key commodities, it is already contributing to the world supply of oil and thereby lowering the price Americans pay.
|
The above forgets one key part of the equation. Oil producing countries often make national deals with certain consumer countries to supply oil too. This means that for example Cuba can purchase oil from Venezuela or China can ma with developing countries on more favorable terms.
| Quote: |
| Finally, as energy expert Daniel Yergin argues, Iraq has only three percent of world production capacity, and to double that "could take more than a decade. |
The key word here is the word could. It could take decades but with the price of oil ever increasing it might not take that long at all. And if security conditions were to more favorable investors then I don't see why it would take very long either.
| Quote: |
IRAQ sharply lifted the official size of its oil reserves yesterday after new data suggested they could exceed Saudi Arabia's and be the largest in the world.
Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih said new exploration showed his country had the world's largest proven oil reserves, with as many as 350billion barrels.
The figure is triple the country's present proven reserves and exceeds that of Saudi Arabia's estimated 264billion barrels of oil.
Mr Salih said the new estimate was based on recent geological surveys and seismic data compiled by "reputable, international oil companies ... This is a serious figure from credible sources".
The Iraqi Government has yet to pass an oil law to allow foreign companies to invest.
Mr Salih said the delay was damaging Iraq's ability to profit from oil output, robbing the country of potentially huge revenue.
With oil selling for more than $US125 ($130) a barrel and demand rising, Mr Salih was frustrated that Iraq still struggled to establish a regulatory framework.
"There is a real debate in the Government and among political leaders about the type of oil-management structures we should have. I am for liberalising this sector and allowing the private sector to come in to develop these vast resources."
BP, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Total have been queuing for rights to exploit Iraqi reserves.
Mr Salih confirmed Iraq was negotiating the outlines of two-year deals with some companies.
He was optimistic that a draft law could be approved in the near future.
"We need to recognise after so many decades of mismanagement of the oil industry that we need to call a spade a spade," he told a group of delegates at the World Economic Forum in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
"We can regulate it, but we need private investment to develop Iraq's production capacities," he said. Iraq was pumping 2.5million barrels of oil a day at present, earning about $US70billion in revenue this year, he said.
The oil price bounced back to record highs yesterday when OPEC refused to increase supply following Saudi Arabia's promise to the US that it would provide an extra 300,000 barrels a day.*
In New York, the price of light, sweet crude for June delivery rose from $US125.92 a barrel to $US126.35.
In London, Brent crude for July delivery was up 82 US cents at $US125.81 a barrel.
The Times
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*I don't know about you but it's not that unreasonable to assume that Iraq could produce an extra 300,000 barrels a day if the security situation in Iraq could of been maintained but thanks to the invasion it wasn't. |
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blade
Joined: 30 Jun 2007
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| Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Gopher wrote: |
| blade wrote: |
| So just so we're clear. Do you think it was a good idea for the US to have invaded Iraq; Yes/No? |
While we are clarifying: no, I do not and I never did. I have always found this an unwise and unjust war. My only doubts centered around Colin Powell's endorsing it at the UN.
In any case, everything I have read on the war confirms my position.
And yes I also find the antiwar and the 9/11 conspiracy people ranting, and in Bobster's case, chanting, foaming-at-the-mouth idiots.
So I still wish you had started your thread differently.
|
Listen you pompous little git. If you don't like the way I started this thread then I suggest that you start your own and quit bugging me with your asinine remarks.
Those who support the war, very, very few people, in my view, will continue to support it no matter what clever angle you cite when approaching the subject. Some of us who do not support the war and never have, on the other hand, might better appreciate such stories as these, which might or might not indicate some of the war's unforeseen consequences, if you and others like you could only present them outside of the antiwar context.[/quote] |
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Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee
Joined: 25 May 2003
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| Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2008 8:49 pm Post subject: |
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|
| blade wrote: |
| Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee wrote: |
| blade wrote: |
| Iraqi oil production is only now reaching prewar levels of production and yet people here have me believe that the invasion of Iraq has had no effect on the world price of oil. WTF? |
Not the main reason.
|
I take it that you admit that the invasion hasn't helped. Now we're getting somewhere.
| Quote: |
what % did Iraq supply to world markets before 2003?
Well that number ought to be easy to find.
|
Iraqi oil production was much lower than it would've been if the Iraq war had never occurred but oil production over the past years was still reduced thanks to the invasion and the resulting damage to Iraqi oil infrastructure. Many billions of dollars have now been spent repairing this infrastructure which could have been put to better use if weren't for the invasion.
| Quote: |
Is this a war for oil?
One argument against the war, presented by those on the left who question Bush's motives, is that it is intended to capture Iraq's petroleum resources. While there is no way to assess to what extent these resources are a strategic factor in Bush's calculations, those who assert a simple link between oil and the war almost always fail to deal with a number of inconvenient facts. First, if the US wanted its oil companies to have access to the Iraqi market, it could have simply pressed the United Nations to drop sanctions against Iraq. Also, oil is a commodity whose price is set on the world market, as Peter Ferrara points out on National Review Online. Since Iraq has been allowed to sell oil in order to purchase food and other key commodities, it is already contributing to the world supply of oil and thereby lowering the price Americans pay.
|
The above forgets one key part of the equation. Oil producing countries often make national deals with certain consumer countries to supply oil too. This means that for example Cuba can purchase oil from Venezuela or China can ma with developing countries on more favorable terms.
| Quote: |
| Finally, as energy expert Daniel Yergin argues, Iraq has only three percent of world production capacity, and to double that "could take more than a decade. |
The key word here is the word could. It could take decades but with the price of oil ever increasing it might not take that long at all. And if security conditions were to more favorable investors then I don't see why it would take very long either.
| Quote: |
IRAQ sharply lifted the official size of its oil reserves yesterday after new data suggested they could exceed Saudi Arabia's and be the largest in the world.
Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih said new exploration showed his country had the world's largest proven oil reserves, with as many as 350billion barrels.
The figure is triple the country's present proven reserves and exceeds that of Saudi Arabia's estimated 264billion barrels of oil.
Mr Salih said the new estimate was based on recent geological surveys and seismic data compiled by "reputable, international oil companies ... This is a serious figure from credible sources".
The Iraqi Government has yet to pass an oil law to allow foreign companies to invest.
Mr Salih said the delay was damaging Iraq's ability to profit from oil output, robbing the country of potentially huge revenue.
With oil selling for more than $US125 ($130) a barrel and demand rising, Mr Salih was frustrated that Iraq still struggled to establish a regulatory framework.
"There is a real debate in the Government and among political leaders about the type of oil-management structures we should have. I am for liberalising this sector and allowing the private sector to come in to develop these vast resources."
BP, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Total have been queuing for rights to exploit Iraqi reserves.
Mr Salih confirmed Iraq was negotiating the outlines of two-year deals with some companies.
He was optimistic that a draft law could be approved in the near future.
"We need to recognise after so many decades of mismanagement of the oil industry that we need to call a spade a spade," he told a group of delegates at the World Economic Forum in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
"We can regulate it, but we need private investment to develop Iraq's production capacities," he said. Iraq was pumping 2.5million barrels of oil a day at present, earning about $US70billion in revenue this year, he said.
The oil price bounced back to record highs yesterday when OPEC refused to increase supply following Saudi Arabia's promise to the US that it would provide an extra 300,000 barrels a day.*
In New York, the price of light, sweet crude for June delivery rose from $US125.92 a barrel to $US126.35.
In London, Brent crude for July delivery was up 82 US cents at $US125.81 a barrel.
The Times
|
*I don't know about you but it's not that unreasonable to assume that Iraq could produce an extra 300,000 barrels a day if the security situation in Iraq could of been maintained but thanks to the invasion it wasn't. |
There is one problem Saddam never gave up his war.
I know just drop sanctions and let Saddam rearm. 
at any rate iIt is in Iraq's interest to say they have as much oil as possible. |
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