|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
 Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: It is just about over |
 |
|
The era of American financial/economic exceptionalism is just about over. Much like the UK before, the US can no longer afford empire, and that is just about over as well.
An AFC style crises is almost here, and the Bretton Woods 2 system of a global dollar standard (the most important reason for American dominance these past decades) will simply die.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/merrill-us-may-face-financing-crisis.html
Read it all, including the comments. This is no quack theory.
This is a good thing. The United States will become a normal country, as did the UK, and the global military adventurism torch is en route to Beijing.
Capitalism in the US is dead too. For now?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93f0da74-5269-11dd-9ba7-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
There are some very big changes, right around the corner. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
|
| Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Yeah, the hegemonic currency is done for. But this was inevitable and just a matter of time. If you want to make the argument that Iraq or inflationary policy or supply-sider deficit spending hastened it all dramatically/needlessly, go ahead. You're probably right.
| mises wrote: |
| the global military adventurism torch is en route to Beijing. |
Why? Nothing here indicates to me that the Chinese (a) aspire to this, (b) are capable of this, (c) or can sustain such a thing.
The Chinese and American economies are inextricably linked. The Chinese have been releasing their State Operated Enterprises (SOEs) to joint ventures with foreign investment firms, creating joint Chinese-Western entities. However, China tries to run the game by creating favorable laws as the WTO forces Chinese concessions. Its a really unique thing happening here in China. But, none of it points to any sort of Chinese militarism of an offensive nature.
Back to the theme of the article, I do think America is in for some changes. Even Obama though, who has the best grasp of America's new relationship with the world, seems to see America's role as messianic. Just a gentler, friendlier, pragmatic, and more circumspect messianism that seeks to acccount for and dismantle nuclear weapons and use force as a last resort.
Anyway, I think America's days of cheap oil are over. This will be a good thing in the long-term. Its hard to predict what this will mean, but I expect America will become a leader in alternative energy. Also, America's bust is not anyone's boon (least of all China's), and just as we see the American government bailing out Bear Sterns and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, I expect there will an increasing international attitude that the American consumer needs help. I mean, that is, if anyone has learned from Bretton Woods' successes.
Long-term, however, America has a number of things going for it. And I, personally, feel happy America is in a recession. There are some inefficiencies to be addressed. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Bigfeet
Joined: 29 May 2008
Location: Grrrrr.....
|
| Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| China will never be as great as the US for the simple reason that they have no natural resources except for coal which is going out of style. Also, their government is not amenable to capitalism. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Bigfeet wrote: |
| China will never be as great as the US for the simple reason that they have no natural resources except for coal which is going out of style. Also, their government is not amenable to capitalism. |
That they have no natural resources is why they will discover military adventurism. Jim Rogers often calls the Chinese (including the government) the best capitalists in the world. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:31 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
The Chinese and American economies are inextricably linked. The Chinese have been releasing their State Operated Enterprises (SOEs) to joint ventures with foreign investment firms, creating joint Chinese-Western entities. |
Well, that is how Chinese and Western/American firms are linked.
They are in a mutually beneficial equilibrium (Nash). China props up the US dollar and the Americans consume Chinese junk. But this relationship can be broken by outside forces losing confidence in American debt, which is starting to happen. If the US is downgraded and the Arabs/Russians stop piling up dollars, the run on the dollar will force even the Chinese to seek refuge. The relationship is coming to an end. The RMB is set to appreciate and Chinese PPP increase and the opposite for the USA.
This will mean terrible inflation in the United States and a dramatic shuffling of economic priorities. I'd like to say the outcome is destined to be good, but it really depends on leadership and political will.
| Quote: |
Back to the theme of the article, I do think America is in for some changes. Even Obama though, who has the best grasp of America's new relationship with the world, seems to see America's role as messianic. Just a gentler, friendlier, pragmatic, and more circumspect messianism that seeks to acccount for and dismantle nuclear weapons and use force as a last resort. |
Yeah, the death of American exceptionalism will be a tough pill to swallow. I'm sure many people will refuse to believe that there are financial limits on what the American government can do abroad. But 1 trillion bucks a year for empire...this is about to end. I think this is a good thing for the United States. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 9:25 am Post subject: |
|
|
Ron Paul has been doing a ton of interviews / is being mentioned a lot all of a sudden as a result:
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/blog/?p=189
| Quote: |
It seemed that Ron Paul was everywhere today, and that everyone was in agreement with him. Let�s start with Fed Chairman Bernanke: �Congressman, I couldn�t agree with you more that inflation is a tax, and that inflation is currently too high.� (Video here, quote at 5:10)
Fox News reporter Alexis Glick: �If we�re opening the discount window to Fannie, to Freddie, to every broker dealer, and the commercial banks already have access to it, and the printing presses are in overdrive, we�re going to continue to knock the US Dollar down��(1:13)
CNBC anchor Larry Kudlow: �Oh, Mr. Paul! I heard [you accusing Fed Chairman Bernanke of being the biggest taxer in the country] this morning and I got so excited sir I just had to have you on! I�m so glad you�re around today. I say almost nightly that inflation is the cruelest tax of all.� (First video, 0:24)
Talk show host Jerry Bowyer: �I think Ron Paul is right on the policy side, where he says that the Fed has been far too loose and we are devaluing our coinage.� (Second video 0:3
Stock analyst Joe Battipaglia: �Now you�ve got government policy run amok, and the central banker coming in behind to make sure there is no failure, puff up the economy, create more credit and keep the bubbles going. It is a very bad mixture.� (Second video 3:16)
Portfolio Manager Jim Lacamp: �It�s a fiat monetary currency system, and when you have something like that it builds up a bigger and bigger mountain of debt and creates asset bubbles just like Joe said�Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are poster [children] for why we should not have government involvement in our financial system�These are socialistic enterprises that were allowed to create bad business models because of this implied government backing.� (Second video, 5:32) |
With the Larry Kudlow interview they also touched on the danger to capitalism in general from removing the freedom to fail. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
Socializing failure and privatizing profits is not how capitalism is supposed to work. But Hank Paulson worked for Goldman's, and now we can't short Goldman's. But we can short WaMu, who is almost broke. I guess WaMu doesn't have Hank's phone number.
And the central banks are flooding markets with gold on lease, trying to depress the value. Evil, corrupt bastards.
Anyways, Ron Paul was dead right about the economy. This fiat system has given too much power to the state, has increased inequality, punished the poor, and created massive and permanent instability and boom/bust cycles of increasing velocity. Time for a paradigm change. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
