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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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 Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:05 am Post subject: Will the Korean economy nosedive if Obama is elected? |
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http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2008/09/205_31804.html
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By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter
Whether or not to transform the Korea-U.S. alliance into a broader global partnership will depend largely on the results of the forthcoming U.S. presidential election in which the Republican and Democratic candidates differ over a bilateral free trade deal and approach toward North Korea's nuclear issue, American experts said Saturday.
Former U.S. Undersecretary of State Michael Armacost said after a ``period of friction'' in the Korea-U.S. relations under the rules of liberal South Korean leadership for the past decade and corresponding adjustments in U.S. policies, the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak administration ushered in a new era for expanding the half-century-long Korea-U.S. relationship.
``Capitalizing on that opportunity will depend heavily on the results of the United States elections this fall,'' Armacost, who currently serves as a fellow at Stanford University's Asia-Pacific Research Center, said during a session Saturday at the three-day Korea Forum.
The forum was sponsored by the U.K.-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and the ASAN Institute for Policy Studies.
``The positions of American presidential candidates promise further adjustments in U.S.-ROK ties. The election outcome could help ameliorate current difficulties, or signal new problems,'' said Armacost, a former ambassador to Japan and the Philippines.
Though both John McCain of the Republican Party and Barack Obama of the Democratic Party have expressed commitment to the U.S.-Korea alliance, the Democratic Party reflects anxieties about globalization and renewed doubts about trade liberalization, which could jeopardize the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) that has yet to be ratified, he said.
``The U.S. presidential election system is itself unique, and we must bear several cautionary notes in mind if the U.S.-ROK relationship is to be sustained and augmented while Washington goes through yet another of its periodic `regime changes,''' he added.
Edwin J. Feulner, president of the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based conservative think tank, said, ``The greatest difference between the two candidates is over KORUS FTA, with McCain firmly in favor and Obama fiercely opposed.''
McCain highlights the fact that Seoul and Washington would benefit economically from lowering trade barriers, including a $20 billion increase in annual bilateral trade, citing the Korea-U.S. trade deal as an example of the rewards of free trade in an era of growing economic globalization, said Feulner.
``Obama opposes the KORUS FTA as `badly flawed,' claiming it wouldn't do enough to increase U.S. auto sales. His criticism echoes the auto labor unions, which are fighting to defeat a trade bill that redresses the very problems they have complained of for years,'' he said.
Feulner added either candidate would probably have to contend with a more protectionist Democratic-led Congress that is increasingly hostile to free trade.
Both McCain and Obama favor engaging rather than isolating North Korea, he noted. However, McCain has expressed greater skepticism of diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang amid a stalemate over the establishment of a protocol to verify North Korea's declaration of nuclear programs made in June.
``He opposes President Bush's current negotiating methods, which only provide incentives. More so than Obama, McCain would rely on pressure, including applying U.N. resolution 1718, to augment diplomacy with North Korea,'' said the expert.
On the other hand, he said, Obama emphasizes ``sustained, direct, and aggressive'' engagement with North Korea.
Feulner said it is important both countries begin the evolution from a singularly focused mission of the Korea-U.S. alliance of deterring North Korean aggression to a more robust values-based relationship that looks beyond the Korean Peninsula.
To that end, he suggested, both countries initiate a public-diplomacy effort to secure extended public and legislate support for the new alliance framework.
``Failure to provide a sufficiently clear strategic vision as justification for the enduring need for the alliance could lead to an erosion of public and legislation support and calls for a reduction or withdrawal of U.S. Forces Korea,'' he said. ``Without substantial and sustained involvement by the senior political and military leadership, the alliance may not be sufficiently adapted to the new threat environment, including as a hedge against Chinese military modernization.''
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That's an interesting article. According to what it says, the Democrats are very much against the FTA with Korea.
Personally, I feel they may try to toughen things for Hyundai and Kia in the USA.
Not bad for the USA... but won't look good for us here! |
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ESL Milk "Everyday
Joined: 12 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:12 am Post subject: |
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| Yes. Koreans are nice to foreigners, but sometimes not to black people. Therefore, Obama's election will cause economic problems in Korea. |
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aka Dave
Joined: 02 May 2008
Location: Down by the river
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:18 am Post subject: |
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Personally, I think Obama has run, for an American politician dealing with the Republican slime machine, a largely honest campaign. However, no campaign is totally honest. And he *has* to be tough on trade if he wants to have a shot in Mich. and Ohio, key states.
But you gotta remember. This is a campaign. Bs does and must exist. I think the FTA has a *shot* under the Obama adminstration, I honestly think he'd consider it.
But the whole question is moot, and the Korean paper doesn't understand American political dynamics.
Whoever is elected president, the FTA is going to have to pass the Congress, which will be even more dominated by Democrats who are generally anti-free trade (what with their constituents losing all them jobs). Obama won't be the barrier to passing FTA if he's president, the Congress will. If they're for it, there's no question Obama will be for it. If they're against it, the question is academic. |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:25 am Post subject: |
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I'm sick of the Republican game myself, but I just can't see an Obama presidency being of much benefit AT ALL to South Korea. With the way things are looking economically here as it is, coupled with what he and the Democrats are likely to do to Korean auto giants like Kia and Hyundai -- we could be in for some extremely tough times.
I'm actually in agreement with what he'd do... but it would not be good for teachers working here (like me).
And the idea of Obama sticking with the FTA? Heck no, and twice on Sunday! |
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victorology
Joined: 10 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:40 am Post subject: |
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I don't think the Korean economy will nosedive if Obama is elected. Even if the FTA doesn't go through, it keeps the status quo. It would be hard to place additional tariffs on ONLY Korean companies and not apply it to Japanese, Chinese or European products. Inflation is a problem in America due to rising costs of natural resources and the weak dollar. If Obama becomes president, there is a good chance the economy will be in recession when he takes office. I highly doubt he would raise taxes on imports.
I also agree with aka Dave that a lot of his words are only part of a campaign. If the FTA makes it through congress, I highly doubt Obama will block it. As mentioned earlier, there are many blue collar workers in battleground states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania). |
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jangsalgida
Joined: 11 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:41 am Post subject: |
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Frankly, I don't care. I can adjust unlike most Koreans. I think it's MORE than funny that most Koreans hated on Bush back when and now they don't think he is that bad compared to Obama simply because he is 50% black or whatever and/or a democrat.
Oh, and if one was to go by your past advice, they not dare tell the truth about their true feelings/vote if it is for Obama. At least to your employer/co-workers, am I correct? Correct me if I'm wrong, nobody should ever give a Korean employer/co-worker a reason to be/go against you, therefore since most Asians/Koreans are against Obame anyone would be STUPID to tell any Korean(work related) otherwise?
According to you, we should ALL say we are for McClain or whoever else?
Last edited by jangsalgida on Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:54 am; edited 2 times in total |
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itaewonguy
Joined: 25 Mar 2003
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:44 am Post subject: |
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It all comes down to the Federal reserve bank! which is a privately owned business anyway! it doesnt matter who is president! the world are just slaves to the few people..
you need to ask The federal reserve..
but I think nothing will change here in korea.. |
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blaseblasphemener
Joined: 01 Jun 2006
Location: There's a voice, keeps on calling me, down the road, that's where I'll always be
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: |
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No one's going to be blaming Obama for any economic nosedive in January.
Why?
Because the economy is going to be in the toilet long before then, thanks to the global economy tanking.
bundle up and put on your booties kids, it's going to be cold out there soon. |
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jangsalgida
Joined: 11 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:56 am Post subject: |
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| blaseblasphemener wrote: |
No one's going to be blaming Obama for any economic nosedive in January.
Why?
Because the economy is going to be in the toilet long before then, thanks to the global economy tanking.
bundle up and put on your booties kids, it's going to be cold out there soon. |
Duh, you missed my post.
Duh, OP. Duh!!
Last edited by jangsalgida on Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:18 am; edited 1 time in total |
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jdog2050
Joined: 17 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject: |
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| victorology wrote: |
I don't think the Korean economy will nosedive if Obama is elected. Even if the FTA doesn't go through, it keeps the status quo. It would be hard to place additional tariffs on ONLY Korean companies and not apply it to Japanese, Chinese or European products. Inflation is a problem in America due to rising costs of natural resources and the weak dollar. If Obama becomes president, there is a good chance the economy will be in recession when he takes office. I highly doubt he would raise taxes on imports.
I also agree with aka Dave that a lot of his words are only part of a campaign. If the FTA makes it through congress, I highly doubt Obama will block it. As mentioned earlier, there are many blue collar workers in battleground states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania). |
Wouldn't Obama blocking the FTA make all those protesters happy? Remember, there's tons of Koreans who don't like the FTA either.
However, I really doubt that Obama will block the FTA. It's pretty obvious that America is getting a raw deal on this FTA, and I think the dems want to change it. |
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victorology
Joined: 10 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 6:10 pm Post subject: |
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| jdog2050 wrote: |
| victorology wrote: |
I don't think the Korean economy will nosedive if Obama is elected. Even if the FTA doesn't go through, it keeps the status quo. It would be hard to place additional tariffs on ONLY Korean companies and not apply it to Japanese, Chinese or European products. Inflation is a problem in America due to rising costs of natural resources and the weak dollar. If Obama becomes president, there is a good chance the economy will be in recession when he takes office. I highly doubt he would raise taxes on imports.
I also agree with aka Dave that a lot of his words are only part of a campaign. If the FTA makes it through congress, I highly doubt Obama will block it. As mentioned earlier, there are many blue collar workers in battleground states (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania). |
Wouldn't Obama blocking the FTA make all those protesters happy? Remember, there's tons of Koreans who don't like the FTA either.
However, I really doubt that Obama will block the FTA. It's pretty obvious that America is getting a raw deal on this FTA, and I think the dems want to change it. |
It would probably make the protesters happy but I think the majority of Koreans support the FTA.
I don't necessarily think the U.S. is getting a raw deal out of the FTA. The biggest point of contention is in the auto industry and people say, "look at how many American cars are sold in Korea vs. the # of Korean cars in America." The thing is, Korea is probably conceding more in terms of autos with the FTA than America is. A big reason is America doesn't have as many tariffs to begin with but that has nothing to do with the FTA.
American auto companies will actually have an advantage over Japanese or European competitors. Does this mean American cars will become the top import cars in Korea? I doubt it but it's not because of the FTA.
The FTA is economically beneficial to both companies but not necessarily politically beneficial and if it's blocked, politics will be the reason. |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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| jdog2050 wrote: |
However, I really doubt that Obama will block the FTA. It's pretty obvious that America is getting a raw deal on this FTA, and I think the dems want to change it. |
That doesn't make sense. Obama is a Democrat. He does want to block the FTA. |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 1:56 am Post subject: |
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| Most Koreans I've talked to want Obama to win. |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:15 am Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| Most Koreans I've talked to want Obama to win. |
I think they're just caught up in the excitement, and have no clue what he stands for. |
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victorology
Joined: 10 Sep 2007
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| Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 5:54 am Post subject: |
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| bassexpander wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| Most Koreans I've talked to want Obama to win. |
I think they're just caught up in the excitement, and have no clue what he stands for. |
I think that's part of it but many people seem to despise Bush and know that Obama is not a Republican. |
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