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Econ 201 -- Understanding America's economic mess
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lower taxes on the rich, then lower them some more. Send young men to die in a war that makes rich people more rich. Then use the government to create and blow up a shadow banking system that makes rich people more rich at the direct expense of the poor and middle class. Then when it all blows up, raid whatever is left of the Treasury and print as much as the dollar can handle. Frame it as a "Crises" and use images of the depression to scare the shit out of people. Just like the lead up to the war in Iraq. Imminent threat, must act now. etc. Forgive me for being cynical, but where is the above wrong?
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arjuna



Joined: 31 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Please don't despair.

The demolition, controlled or not, will bring down the mofos.

Their days are numbered.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt it.

Anyways, the comedian's got it, why didn't most others?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC31Oudc5Bg&eurl

And isn't it strange, that outside of the nether regions of the internet and academic outcasts from the Austrian School, that the best reporting on this subject came from This American Life?

http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355

The financial press is useless and cannot be trusted.
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ontheway



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter Schiff, August 28, 2006 explains what is happening and predicts the crisis we are having now.

Arthur Laffer, bonehead, supports the Fed and bets a penny that he's right.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU6PamCQ6zw
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a very interesting, informative column.

Quote:

October 1, 2008
Economic Scene

Lesson From a Crisis: When Trust Vanishes, Worry

By DAVID LEONHARDT

In 1929, Meyer Mishkin owned a shop in New York that sold silk shirts to workingmen. When the stock market crashed that October, he turned to his son, then a student at City College, and offered a version of this sentiment: It serves those rich scoundrels right.

A year later, as Wall Street�s problems were starting to spill into the broader economy, Mr. Mishkin�s store went out of business. He no longer had enough customers. His son had to go to work to support the family, and Mr. Mishkin never held a steady job again.

Frederic Mishkin � Meyer�s grandson and, until he stepped down a month ago, an ally of Ben Bernanke�s on the Federal Reserve Board � told me this story the other day, and its moral is obvious enough. Many people in Washington fear that the country is starting to spiral into a terrible downturn. And to their horror, they see the public, and many members of Congress, turning into modern-day Meyer Mishkins, more interested in punishing Wall Street than saving the economy.

All of which may be true. But there is good reason for the public�s skepticism. The experts and policy makers who so desperately want to take action have failed to tell a compelling story about why they�re so afraid.

It�s not enough to say that markets could freeze up, loans could become impossible to get and the economy could slide into its worst downturn since the Great Depression. For now, the crisis has had little effect on most Americans, beyond their 401(k) statements. So to them, the specter of a depression can sound alarmist, and the $700 billion bill that Congress voted down this week can seem like a bailout for rich scoundrels.

Mr. Bernanke and his fellow worriers need to connect the dots. They need to use their bully pulpits to teach a little lesson on the economics of a credit crisis � how A can lead to B, B to C and C to Depression.

Let�s give it a shot, then....



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/business/economy/01leonhardt.html?scp=1&sq=Meyer%20Mishkin%20&st=cse

Clearly, we have a big problem. The problem now is figuring out how to fix it. Is the bailout bill the way to go? Will it work?

There are questions that need to be answered.

But we could be in for some big problems. Or...?
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 2:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Republicans are not only utterly incompetent, at the presidential level, the presidential candidate level, and the Congressional level, they are suicidal. The bailout deal was a Republican bill to help out their fatcat contributors. They not only said F--- you! to their own Republican President's pleas, they said Up yours! to their Republican Presidential candidate who pretended to negotiate the bailout bill. Is there something somewhere inside of them that knows the truth and is trying to destroy themselves? A conscience, perhaps?

Or is it simply that they want to destroy the world to make it safe for corporate greed?

Sadly, the American people have no long term memory, and seem incapable of learning from history, even within their own lifetimes. Even if the Republicans lose this time, Americans will fall for the same old lies they have been peddling for more than 50 years soon enough.

Quote:
September 30, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
Revolt of the Nihilists
By DAVID BROOKS

In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt inherited an economic crisis. He understood that his first job was to restore confidence, to give people a sense that somebody was in charge, that something was going to be done.

This generation of political leaders is confronting a similar situation, and, so far, they have failed utterly and catastrophically to project any sense of authority, to give the world any reason to believe that this country is being governed. Instead, by rejecting the rescue package on Monday, they have made the psychological climate much worse.

George W. Bush is completely out of juice, having squandered his influence with Republicans as well as Democrats. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is a smart moneyman, but an inept legislator. He was told time and time again that House Republicans would not support his bill, and his response was to get down on bended knee before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.....

House Republicans led the way and will get most of the blame. It has been interesting to watch them on their single-minded mission to destroy the Republican Party. Not long ago, they led an anti-immigration crusade that drove away Hispanic support. Then, too, they listened to the loudest and angriest voices in their party, oblivious to the complicated anxieties that lurk in most American minds.

Now they have once again confused talk radio with reality. If this economy slides, they will go down in history as the Smoot-Hawleys of the 21st century. With this vote, they�ve taken responsibility for this economy, and they will be held accountable. The short-term blows will fall on John McCain, the long-term stress on the existence of the G.O.P. as we know it....

The only thing now is to try again � to rescue the rescue. There�s no time to find a brand-new package, so the Congressional plan should go up for another vote on Thursday, this time with additions that would change its political prospects. Leaders need to add provisions that would shore up housing prices and directly help mortgage holders. Martin Feldstein and Lawrence Lindsey both have good proposals of the sort that could lead to a plausible majority coalition. Loosening deposit insurance rules would also be nice.

If that doesn�t happen, the world could be in for some tough economic times (the Europeans, apparently, have not even begun to acknowledge their toxic debt) � but also tough political times.

The American century was created by American leadership, which is scarcer than credit just about now.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/opinion/30brooks.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin

America's actions during the 20th century were sometimes incredibly noble, and other times despicable. But at least we established some ideals, not always practiced at home, for the world to live up to.

What are the ideals for the 21st century?

When there is economic chaos, there is political chaos.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Auto sales fell off a cliff today:

� Ford Motor posted a 34% drop. Their truck and van sales fell 39%, SUV sales plummeted 57% and F-series truck sales dropped 42%.

� Honda reported a 24% decline in sales;

� Volkswagen sales for September fell 9.4%;

� Hyundai Motor's U.S. sales fell 25%;

� Toyota U.S. Sept. sales drop 32.3%
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bacasper



Joined: 26 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mises wrote:
Auto sales fell off a cliff today:

� Ford Motor posted a 34% drop. Their truck and van sales fell 39%, SUV sales plummeted 57% and F-series truck sales dropped 42%.

� Honda reported a 24% decline in sales;

� Volkswagen sales for September fell 9.4%;

� Hyundai Motor's U.S. sales fell 25%;

� Toyota U.S. Sept. sales drop 32.3%

Had they not been forced to stop making the Bug, VW's sales may even have gone up!
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forced? I thought they continued to make it in the DF for many years and only recently stopped.
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This story will curdle your blood. Not only will the bailout probably not avoid a recession, the government will have to do a lot more borrowing just at the point when foreigners are going to be more reluctant to lend. And so interest rates are going to go up.

Quote:
Economy

Amid Financial Woes, Recession Talk Grows

by Jim Zarroli

Listen Now [3 min 49 sec] add to playlist

Correction: Some versions of this story incorrectly said Bill Heard Chevrolet was "Atlanta-based." It is actually based in Columbus, Ga.

All Things Considered, October 2, 2008 � Just a month ago, there were still many economists who thought the U.S. might avoid a recession. Now it's difficult to find anyone forecasting continued growth. The debate these days is centered on how long and how deep the recession will be.


http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95306486


Quote:
Markets Decline on Poor Economic Reports
Dow Plunges Nearly 350 Points

Stocks plummeted today as investors turned their attention from the financial rescue plan being debated in Congress to grim economic data and the continuing credit crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down more than 348 points, about 3.2 percent, at 10,483. The broad-based Standard & Poor's 500 stock index lost 47 points, more than 4 percent, and ended the day at 1,114. The Nasdaq composite index fell 93 points, about 4.5 percent, to 1,977.

Investors appear concerned that the bailout, while needed, will not be enough to address the country's fundamental economic problems and that the financial crisis has already spread from investment banks to other parts of the economy.

"I think it's clear to investors that while we have been focused on the rescue plan in D.C., it is too late to avoid a recession," said Ed Yardeni, an investment strategist for Yardeni Investments.

The Senate passed the bailout plan late yesterday, moving the country toward a program to buy up the bad mortgage debt weighing down financial firms. The House, which helped spur a record market sell-off Monday when it rejected the initial plan, is expected to take up the legislation tomorrow. But some analysts also remain concerned that the plan doesn't have enough support in the House. "There is going to be turbulence until the ink is dry and [the bill] is on its way to the White House," said Bill Knapp, investment strategist for Mainstay Investments. "So there is still uncertainty."....


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/02/AR2008100201422.html?hpid=topnews


How the EU is approaching the crisis:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95304755
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Declining consumer spending, an increasing government deficit and increasing debt payments, inflation, $3 and $4 a gallon gas, balance of trade deficit, layoffs, bank failures, a roller coaster stock market, increasing animosity toward America abroad, and there are people who are going to keep the Republicans in the White House.

Go figure.

Quote:
Pinched and Watching Pennies
Long a Bulwark of the Economy, Consumer Spending Stalls

By Ylan Q. Mui and V. Dion Haynes
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, October 3, 2008; D01


For the past two decades, the nation could count on one thing to keep it going when economic times got tough: Consumers kept spending.

Not anymore.

Real spending has been flat or down since June. The cutbacks have been so severe that many economists are predicting that the third quarter will show the first quarterly decline in consumer spending in 17 years -- effectively stalling the engine of the American economy.

Spending fuels about 70 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, and right now, consumers' pain is being felt across socioeconomic lines in ways both big and small. Stephen Morris, 39, of Centreville has been unemployed for months and his car was repossessed this summer. University of Maryland sophomore Richard Jackson, 19, was rejected for a student loan because of the credit crunch and is trying to cut back expenses. Missy Pokin of Fairfax, 52, is worried her husband, an architect, will be laid off.

"This affects everybody's life," Pokin said. "I keep my fingers crossed every day."

This was not the case during other recent economic downturns, when consumer spending remained, if not robust, at least on the rise. When the tech bubble burst in 2000, spending rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate the following quarter, adjusted for inflation. During the recession in 2001, spending simmered at a 1 to 2 percent growth rate. And when Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005, consumers continued pulling out their wallets to boost spending by 1.4 percent for the quarter. But today's economic environment is proving to be toxic for consumers, with some forecasters predicting spending to decline at a 1 to 2 percent annual rate in the coming quarters.

Unlike in previous years, consumers are grappling with significant inflation, particularly for necessities such as food and fuel, that are eating at their purchasing power. The consumer price index rose 4.3 percent during the second quarter of this year compared with the same period last year, the largest increase since the early 1990s. Meanwhile, real wages are decreasing and the unemployment rate has been rising since the summer to 6.1 percent in August, a five-year high.....


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/02/AR2008100203632.html?hpid=topnews

I don't see how America can recover economically in our lifetime.
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This will really bring home what's happening in the American economy.

Quote:
Your Money
What Is At Stake In A Credit Collapse?

Listen Now [29 min 56 sec] add to playlist

Talk of the Nation, October 2, 2008 � The ongoing financial crisis has clarified for many Americans how fundamentally important credit is to the nation's economy. What happens to ordinary people and small businesses when easy credit dries up?

Guests:

Janet Hildrich, partner in Tree Lovers Floors company

Dean Foust, Atlanta bureau chief for BusinessWeek

Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com


http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95291334

There's no doubt there is a big problem. The question is whether the bailout package will work. And what will we do next year if things get worse?

But the experts say we don't have a choice. And I guess they are right.
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bacasper



Joined: 26 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 3:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mises wrote:
Forced? I thought they continued to make it in the DF for many years and only recently stopped.

My bad, I should have said "forced in the US." Yes, they continued to make them in Mexico until just a few years ago.

As I recall some US agency decided that the bug was not "safe," and VW had to abandon its sales there.

Weren't those US figures?
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From the New York Times, an article that provides a vital key to understanding how the credit meltdown occurred. Must reading.


Quote:

Agency�s �04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt, and Risk

By STEPHEN LABATON
Published: October 2, 2008

�We have a good deal of comfort about the capital cushions at these firms at the moment.� � Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, March 11, 2008.

.... Many events in Washington, on Wall Street and elsewhere around the country have led to what has been called the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. But decisions made at a brief meeting on April 28, 2004, explain why the problems could spin out of control. The agency�s failure to follow through on those decisions also explains why Washington regulators did not see what was coming.

On that bright spring afternoon, the five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks.

They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments. Those funds could then flow up to the parent company, enabling it to invest in the fast-growing but opaque world of mortgage-backed securities; credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders; and other exotic instruments.

The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr. Two years later, he left to become Treasury secretary.

A lone dissenter � a software consultant and expert on risk management � weighed in from Indiana with a two-page letter to warn the commission that the move was a grave mistake. He never heard back from Washington.

One commissioner, Harvey J. Goldschmid, questioned the staff about the consequences of the proposed exemption. It would only be available for the largest firms, he was reassuringly told � those with assets greater than $5 billion.

�We�ve said these are the big guys,� Mr. Goldschmid said, provoking nervous laughter, �but that means if anything goes wrong, it�s going to be an awfully big mess.�....

Last Friday, the commission formally ended the 2004 program, acknowledging that it had failed to anticipate the problems at Bear Stearns and the four other major investment banks.

�The last six months have made it abundantly clear that voluntary regulation does not work,� Mr. Cox said.....


http://tinyurl.com/47pmla

In 2004, the Republicans controlled the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

But that won't stop them from trying to blame this on the Democrats, of course.

Let's see now....

Ah, I've got it: It's all Franklin Delano Roosevelt's fault because he created the SEC.
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Gatsby



Joined: 09 Feb 2007

PostPosted: Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If it were a choice between a $700 trillion bailout package and a depression -- as Bush, Paulson, and others say -- and non-masochist would pick the former.

But there are BUTS.

Are we sure there would be a depression? Theoretically, the markets should be able to right themselves, IF we had a free market system, and IF we didn't have the earlier example of the Great Depression where that didn't seem to work.

A more likely BUT is will the bailout work? This, in part, depends on how you define success. No one has clearly defined success or failure with regard to what the bailout hopes to achieve. It is not a stimulus package. It will not prevent a recession. It is just intended to revive the credit markets, thus preventing a national or worldwide depression.

Will it? Todd Benjamin thinks it won't. And if it doesn't work, if more problems surface, what then? How many more trillions can we summon?

Quote:
October 3, 2008
Will the bail-out package fix the economy?
Posted: 911 GMT

Anyone looking at the bail-out package as the salvation for the banking system or the U.S. economy is dead wrong. The problems in the economy and the banking system have gone far beyond what the package can fix.
We know it's not just a U.S. problem. There are fears of a worldwide recession.


There is a crisis of confidence in the financial system, and that won�t be fixed by the bail-out package. There is a crisis of confidence in political leadership. There is a well deserved mistrust of Wall Street and others whose greed and recklessness got us into this mess. And there are signs the U.S. economy continues to get worse, including house prices which continue to decline.

And we know it�s not just a U.S. problem. There are fears of a worldwide recession.

According to George Magnus, senior economic adviser at UBS, about 40 percent of OECD economies are in effect already in recession. He puts it all down to deleveraging, as banks cuts back on their lending. He�s pessimistic as are others, as I have been in the past and continue to be.

As he told the Financial Times: �What got us out of the hold in 2001 was it was possible to cut interest rates very sharply. And there was a sector that was willing and able to crank up leverage, the household sector.

�Apart from the government, which is going to have to come in and offset the weakness in private borrowing and demand, I can�t see anyone else in a position to spark an economic renaissance.�

While the U.S. and other countries feel the economic fallout, the U.S. is paying another price for the unwinding of its excessive leverage and the resulting bail-out package, and it can�t be measured in financial terms.

With the massive bail-out package the U.S. has lost its moral authority as the beacon of free markets and capitalism.

We took freewheeling capitalism to the limits and the wheels came off.

Others point to other economic models such as the Chinese model as offering more stability. The world is watching and the reverberations of this crisis for the U.S. will last long beyond the crisis itself.


http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/03/will-the-bail-out-package-fix-the-economy/

As every real economist knows, confidence is the foundation of our modern fiscal system. Banks lend out far more than they have on deposit. When people stop spending, a recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Etc.

I think the U.S. and other countries could spend 10 trillion dollars trying to fix the economy, and it wouldn't work if there is not confidence. I think Benjamin makes a good point about leadership. Ultimately, confidence comes from having political leaders that we believe know what they are doing. And then the leaders of different countries need to get together and cooperate reasonably to fix the problems, not just put Band Aids on them.

I think changing the rules, putting in regulations and oversight, would go a long way to restoring confidence. But those rules need to be international. You can't ban one type of trading in the U.S. and not expect it to pop up elsewhere.

Let's face it, Bush is the problem. We've got one month till the election. Perhaps just as the expectation of a bailout bill has helped buoy the stock market, expectation of new leadership in the U.S. will buoy world economic confidence.
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