Korean Job Discussion Forums

[mindmetoo]

Anyone remember that long banned idiot EFLTrainer who wouldn't stop raving about peak oil?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081112/bs_nm/us_markets_oil_35

"Oil drops 4 percent as forecasters slash demand outlook"

I'm staring at 84 cents a litre gas right now.

[On the other hand]

Well, the explanation I've been hearing bandied about is that the price of oil is in decline only because the economy is tanking. If and when the economy picks up again, so the theory goes, the price of oil will shoot back up as well.

However, I will observe that this seems to be a latter-day revision to peak-oil theory. Prior to a few months back, I never heard peak-oil proponents say that the price of oil was tied to the larger economy. As I recall, the price of oil was just supposed to keep going up and up, end of story.

[Kuros]

Peak oil theory peaked months ago . . .

[some waygug-in]

Perhaps "peak oil" was just a ruse to scare people into getting serious about exploring alternative energy options.

[Juregen]

The price of a commodity can only go up as long as people are willing to pay for it.

Shortage increases the sellers control on the price, but when supply outstrips demand it are the consumers who control the prices.

Supply was always kept just below demand in order to have control over prices, but now the general demand has slowed down, it is the other way around.

I am sure the OPEC will find a way to reduce output. What is strange is that OPEC was created to stabilize the price of gas, but at the moment they are trying to inflate the price, with of course the negative economic impact as a result.

I do think the time is ripe for a new technology to rear its head that will reduce the need for gasoline, may it be fuel efficiency or alternative fuels or a combination there off remains to be seen.

The theory of peak oil is a simple theory that does not take into account the complexity of reactions people can have on increasing shortage of fuel. But the basic reaction is to find cheaper or more efficient alternatives.

[BS.Dos.]

The actual timing of peak occurance is incidental. As a finite resource the only thing that matters is that it will peak. When will it happen? Who knows. Exponential growth forecasts never factor in unforeseen conflicts and economic slowdowns etc that effect demand. If we really are in a recession right now - as is being claimed by the BBC in the UK this morning - then productivity will slow and oil demand will drop, thereby putting some slack back into the system and, maybe, staving off the peak predictions for another 12-months or so.

[Joo Rip Gwa Rhhee]

It is still around. and it is happening sorry to say.

[Bigfeet]

I don't believe the peak oil theory for the US either. US' oil supply didn't peak in the 60s, it's all a lie perpetrated by the oil industry to keep supply low and demand high.

[blade]

[BS.Dos.]

^^I agree with your latter sentence i.e. the oil industry exploits and manipulates oil's scarcity so as to further increase economic gain. Highly plausible that if you've got something that everyone wants and needs, but which wont last forever, then you're going to grab as much as you can for it while you can. Opec setting production output confirms as much.

However I can't understand your first sentence and why you think peak oil is just a theory. Oil is finite. Sooner or later it will run out. Peak oil merely represents scientific attempts to model when this may be, given the variables we know.

[Bigfeet]

[On the other hand]

[BS.Dos.]

An interesting hypothesis and one which I was unfamiliar with, so thanks for enlightening me. However, the wiki link you provide doesn't really demonstrate or validate the abiogenic theory as a plausible counter argument to the biogenic explanation. Even if the abiogenic theory were true and petroleum was, as the link supposes, a naturally occurring phenomenon, I don't imagine the process would come anywhere near close enough so as to make it commercially viable. Nor, I imagine, would it be able to produce fast enough so as to satisfy our current levels of consumption. If you counter by stating that it already is producing the oil that we are currently consuming, then I'd argue that the abiogenic theory doesn't explain why oil fields, such as those in the North Sea, are currently being depleted. If the abiogenic hypothesis were true, then oil production would surely remain constant.

[BS.Dos.]

[doc_ido]