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Enlighten me: Why is the US$ so strong against the won?
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Shinnam



Joined: 16 Jan 2007

PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:46 pm    Post subject: Enlighten me: Why is the US$ so strong against the won? Reply with quote

Ok, I just don't get it, and I like to think I understand a thing or two about economics and politics. I know things are screwed up here, but the US has got more. It's not just the Won that's lost it's strength, but even European currencies are sucking hind teat too. What is the deal?
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billybrobby



Joined: 09 Dec 2004

PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Currency traders flock to big-time, established currencies in times of economic uncertainty. There's nothing bigger than the dollar and times have never been more uncertain. The won is seen as a sort of second-rate currency that is undesirable at times like these. Yeah, it's ironic that we've created instability at home and around the world and it only serves to strengthen our currency.
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Yaya



Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Korea's currency is the WORST performing in the world this year, losing more than half of its value against the dollar.

I hear it's partly because of risky stuff Korean banks have done, like take out large short-term loans, and their failure to learn from the Asian financial crisis ten years ago.
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yaya wrote:
Korea's currency is the WORST performing in the world this year, losing more than half of its value against the dollar.

I hear it's partly because of risky stuff Korean banks have done, like take out large short-term loans, and their failure to learn from the Asian financial crisis ten years ago.


The won is doing terribly, but it isn't even in the top 10 worst at the moment. For the year? Hmm... not sure. CNN did a bunch of stories on the ten worst.
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Soccerstar



Joined: 21 Nov 2006
Location: Kyungsangnamdo

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bassexpander wrote:
Yaya wrote:
Korea's currency is the WORST performing in the world this year, losing more than half of its value against the dollar.

I hear it's partly because of risky stuff Korean banks have done, like take out large short-term loans, and their failure to learn from the Asian financial crisis ten years ago.


The won is doing terribly, but it isn't even in the top 10 worst at the moment. For the year? Hmm... not sure. CNN did a bunch of stories on the ten worst.


It is the worst performing currency in Asia.
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VanIslander



Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

and yet korea has a strong asset base and currency reserves: its debt and banking system is on solid foundation

now is the time to buy korean won big time

some are going to make a killing converting their dollars now!
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hagwonnewbie



Joined: 09 Feb 2007
Location: Asia

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The movement of the won seems to mirror the movement of the DJIA.
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bangbayed



Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've got another theory I'm throwing out here: Since Korea's economy is so manufacture-based, and since people are starting to purchase so conservatively now; could buyers buying less mean that the won is being devalued in an attempt to get foreign retailers to keep up purchases in Korea?

Don't have any facts or evidence, but it seems to make sense.
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pest2



Joined: 01 Jun 2005
Location: Vancouver, Canada

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bangbayed wrote:
I've got another theory I'm throwing out here: Since Korea's economy is so manufacture-based, and since people are starting to purchase so conservatively now; could buyers buying less mean that the won is being devalued in an attempt to get foreign retailers to keep up purchases in Korea?

Don't have any facts or evidence, but it seems to make sense.


Good theory. If it were right, though, you would be seeing massive layoffs, foreclosures, and bankruptcies in Korea before the won went down. Is that happening, yet?

I think it has more to do with which currencies traders see as "safe," just as someone else said. Ironic that the currency belonging to the country that caused this whole mess is seen as safe, eh? hehe...

I would guess whoever it was that said it has to do with the banks giving out too many short term loans -- both commercial and personal -- is probably right. I remember a couple of years ago reading that Korea has a rather large base of consumer debt... so spending in the flow model of economics looked artificially hight... sooner or later, people can't keep buying stuff and/or they default on thier loans... then the economy slows down... I remember that banks were giving out loans to small businesses just to pay off the interest on other loans, too, and that was part of the Asia economic crisis.. the regular banks' loans weren't paid off by failing businesses who took out those loans, and then those businesses would go to these short-term loan places and get an even higher interest loan just to pay the interest on the first loan and avoid going out of business/losing face... very typical short term mindset Korean way of doing business, for sure. But I'm pretty sure the government outlawed the short-term, high interest loan places...
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NoExplode



Joined: 15 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not so sure it will rebound. If the US auto companies declare bankruptcy, shed their labor/union pension obligations and that $2,000 cost hole for each car, and can compete again aginst Hyundai's and the like, Korea's gonna be in BIG doodoo, and really might go back to the 3rd world. If they can't export cars to the US, this place will be sub-Thailand in economic might.
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CeleryMan



Joined: 12 Apr 2007
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uber protectionist policies + gross incompetence by Korean leaders. BUT I will do my part and cash out $30k large with USD Woori and double my Won instantly. Yes, I will spend most of it in your country buying American beef... if and when I can find it outside of the Dragon Lodge.

Pay backs gonna be a byyyach Mr. Lee.
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Juregen



Joined: 30 May 2006

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bangbayed wrote:
I've got another theory I'm throwing out here: Since Korea's economy is so manufacture-based, and since people are starting to purchase so conservatively now; could buyers buying less mean that the won is being devalued in an attempt to get foreign retailers to keep up purchases in Korea?

Don't have any facts or evidence, but it seems to make sense.


Numbers are just in ....

Korean Exports dropped .... even though the won is so darn cheap ....
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bangbayed



Joined: 01 Dec 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think 2MB also had a lot to do with it. A Korean friend just explained to me that when he took office, he purposefully kept the won devalued to the dollar in order to promote exports. When the economy began to drop, so did the won, even more than before. I think this explains why the won is even lower than other Asian currencies vis-a-vis the dollar.

People just aren't buying as many Samsung et al products. Circuit City going bankrupt is huge sign of what's going on back home. If we want the won raised, we better hope the Xmas season brings up demand for Korean goods this year.
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cruisemonkey



Joined: 04 Jul 2005
Location: Hopefully, the same place as my luggage.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yaya wrote:
Korea's currency is the WORST performing in the world this year, losing more than half of its value against the dollar.


I'm glad you're teaching English, not math.

If it now takes W1500 to buy a USD instead of W1000, the won has lost a third of it's value - not a half.
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fiveeagles



Joined: 19 May 2005
Location: Vancouver

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bangbayed wrote:
I think 2MB also had a lot to do with it. A Korean friend just explained to me that when he took office, he purposefully kept the won devalued to the dollar in order to promote exports. When the economy began to drop, so did the won, even more than before. I think this explains why the won is even lower than other Asian currencies vis-a-vis the dollar.

People just aren't buying as many Samsung et al products. Circuit City going bankrupt is huge sign of what's going on back home. If we want the won raised, we better hope the Xmas season brings up demand for Korean goods this year.


What would be some good exports in a bad economy?
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