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Omkara
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Location: USA
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 Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 7:23 pm Post subject: Any insight into the exchange rate? |
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| It's at about 1390 to the USD right now. Any one have any info about future exchange windows right now? Predictions? |
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Omkara
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Location: USA
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| Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Mods, could you move this to the General Discussion Forum? Thanks. |
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marlow
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
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| Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| I would predict a slight recovery by the end of 2009, but I wouldn't take any risks on it. Definitely wouldn't come to Korea counting on a recovery. Until the economic shite settles down I'd bet on another country. |
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Real Reality
Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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Asian Currencies Slump as Risk Appetite Dwindles
By Lilian Karunungan, Bloomberg.com (January 24, 2009)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aEKXp4eihgkw&refer=asia
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Asian currencies declined this week, led by the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah, as evidence of a deepening global recession prompted investors to cut holdings of emerging-market assets....
"Risk appetite has definitely waned," said Callum Henderson, head of global currency strategy at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. "The economic outlook remains relatively poor, and growth expectations continue to be revised down. The bias for much of the first half will be lower for Asian currencies."
The won weakened 2.4 percent to 1,390.90 per dollar this week as of 3 p.m. yesterday in Seoul, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.... |
Asia's Economic Dragons Wheezing
by Tina Wang, Forbes.com, 01.22.09
Japan, China and South Korea report grim export and GDP data.
http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/22/korea-china-gdp-markets-econ-cx_twdd_0122markets2.html
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Samsung Electronics faces its first quarterly operating loss since it started releasing quarterly results in 2000, and has embarked on a restructuring.
"We are in the midst of what will probably be the deepest global earnings recession in over 40 years," Citigroup said in a research note Wednesday. "We forecast earnings to fall by about 50% by the end of the earnings recession and this decline should take a further four to six quarters to play out."
The slide in South Korea's won, last year's worst-performing currency, also squeezed some companies and banks' dollar liquidity.... |
South Koreans Quit China as Yuan's Gain Raises Cost of Living
By Kim Kyoungwha, Bloomberg.com (January 6, 2009)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ahEY6TmQOzIc&refer=home
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| The Korean won, Asia's worst-performing currency last year, slumped as low as 222.94 against the yuan on Nov. 21 and traded at 189.09 today, compared with 129.50 a year ago, according to a data compiled by Bloomberg News.... |
Local Stocks and Currency Get Routed
By Moon Gwang-lip, JoongAng Daily (January 16, 2009)
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2899932
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| The won fell by 44.5 won, or 3.3 percent, against the U.S. dollar to 1,392.0 won. It lost 9.5 percent this month through yesterday, becoming the worst performing currency in Asia.... |
South Korea heads towards first recession in 11 years
By Cheon Jong-woo and Yoo Choonsik, Reuters via Forbes.com (01.22.09)
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/01/22/2009-01-22T065712Z_01_SP304422_RTRIDST_0_KOREA-ECONOMY-UPDATE-5-PIX.html |
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Omkara
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Location: USA
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 1:29 am Post subject: |
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| Anyone know if there are going to be any currency exchanges withing the next two months? I'm going home for a few months, and need to send some money home. I'd like to do so at the best moment, of course! |
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Trevor
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 3:14 am Post subject: |
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Look at it this way: what would happen if the Won went back to parity tomorrow (1USD = 1,000W)?
Correct answer: There would be a mad dash for the bank as everyone in the country stampeded to get the hell out of the Won as quickly as possible. (Including YOU...and me).
Is the Korean government about to let that happen?
No 
Trevor's forecast: The won will come back, but it is going to be slow and steady. It's possible for it to spike. But not a big spike, and not for long. Patience is king.  Patience and Costco hash browns and maple syrup.
When you start feeling frustrated, just remember about all your friends' employment troubles back home. I don't know anybody with a job in the States right now. |
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Rusty Shackleford
Joined: 08 May 2008
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 4:05 am Post subject: |
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| It will go up or down or stay the same. |
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aka Dave
Joined: 02 May 2008
Location: Down by the river
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 5:20 am Post subject: |
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The dollar is currrently viewed as a reserve currency, despite the shaky foundations of the US financial system. That means when people want a safe haven for their money, they go to the dollar, and that's what the Koreans are doing.
It's possible the dollar could collapse if the East Asians, and particularly the Chinese, decided to abandon it. That would be good for the won. It would be suicide for the global economy and no one even has any idea what a worthless dollar would mean. Probably shot guns and canned foods would be the next best commodity. The reason is is that there would be no safe haven, and you'd have a deflationary panic, with people hording their cash even more than they are now. It was thought that the Euro was a possible alternative to the dollar, but that's just not happening for whatever reason. Europe is in trouble.
The best hope for the won is we climb out of the crisis in a couple years, and that Obama's stimulus plan works. Some good articles out today about that.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=b5f61f74-dde6-43ea-a433-9feb0f752c3b
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/opinion/26krugman.html?hp |
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bassexpander
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 5:44 am Post subject: |
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Guess who buys the lions share of exported Chinese and Korean goods?
Americans.
Do you think that would bode well for China or Korea? Chinese companies have been dropping left and right lately -- out-of-work Chinese are demonstrating in increasingly larger numbers.
What do you think would happen to the Chinese economy if the above mentioned happened to the US dollar? Like it or not, the Chinese are tied to the US economy. |
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Bucheonguy
Joined: 23 Oct 2008
Location: Bucheon
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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| aka Dave wrote: |
The dollar is currrently viewed as a reserve currency, despite the shaky foundations of the US financial system. That means when people want a safe haven for their money, they go to the dollar, and that's what the Koreans are doing.
It's possible the dollar could collapse if the East Asians, and particularly the Chinese, decided to abandon it. That would be good for the won. It would be suicide for the global economy and no one even has any idea what a worthless dollar would mean. Probably shot guns and canned foods would be the next best commodity. The reason is is that there would be no safe haven, and you'd have a deflationary panic, with people hording their cash even more than they are now. It was thought that the Euro was a possible alternative to the dollar, but that's just not happening for whatever reason. Europe is in trouble.
The best hope for the won is we climb out of the crisis in a couple years, and that Obama's stimulus plan works. Some good articles out today about that.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=b5f61f74-dde6-43ea-a433-9feb0f752c3b
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/opinion/26krugman.html?hp |
In my opinion, Obama's plan cannot possibly work since it will really only provide short term relief but not fix any of the real problems.
The dollar is done. It can't possible recover. The US dollar is doomed and the US is headed for hyper inflation. So I don't think it's worth worrying about the exchange rate. In one or two years the dollar will be no more and the US will probably have to move to another new currency. Mark my words. Obama's plan can do nothing but buy the big bankers time to pull all their assets out of America. |
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Rusty Shackleford wrote: |
| It will go up or down or stay the same. |
i disagree
it'll do all three! |
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VanIslander
Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 11:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Bucheonguy wrote: |
| Obama's plan cannot possibly work since it will really only provide short term relief but not fix any of the real problems |
You must be thinking of Bush's plan: throw money at wall street ... goggled up and gone.. it was too short term a vision and a *beep* waste.
Obama's plan invests heavily in infrastructure: efficient modern technology for classrooms and gov't buildings, power grid for alternative energies being laid down, highway and road construction and repair, education, healthcare, etc.
The criticism of Obama's plan over the first week of his presidency has been largely due his plan not being short term enough, being too focused on investments that pay off 2-4+ years down the road. |
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Sir John Hawkins
Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Location: Ulsan, SK
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| Posted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 11:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Insight on the won - It sucks. |
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aka Dave
Joined: 02 May 2008
Location: Down by the river
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| Posted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:02 am Post subject: |
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| Bucheonguy wrote: |
| aka Dave wrote: |
The dollar is currrently viewed as a reserve currency, despite the shaky foundations of the US financial system. That means when people want a safe haven for their money, they go to the dollar, and that's what the Koreans are doing.
It's possible the dollar could collapse if the East Asians, and particularly the Chinese, decided to abandon it. That would be good for the won. It would be suicide for the global economy and no one even has any idea what a worthless dollar would mean. Probably shot guns and canned foods would be the next best commodity. The reason is is that there would be no safe haven, and you'd have a deflationary panic, with people hording their cash even more than they are now. It was thought that the Euro was a possible alternative to the dollar, but that's just not happening for whatever reason. Europe is in trouble.
The best hope for the won is we climb out of the crisis in a couple years, and that Obama's stimulus plan works. Some good articles out today about that.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=b5f61f74-dde6-43ea-a433-9feb0f752c3b
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/opinion/26krugman.html?hp |
In my opinion, Obama's plan cannot possibly work since it will really only provide short term relief but not fix any of the real problems.
The dollar is done. It can't possible recover. The US dollar is doomed and the US is headed for hyper inflation. So I don't think it's worth worrying about the exchange rate. In one or two years the dollar will be no more and the US will probably have to move to another new currency. Mark my words. Obama's plan can do nothing but buy the big bankers time to pull all their assets out of America. |
I will mark your words. Obama's plan isn't perfect, but since it's the closest thing to a Keynesian response as we'll see, I hope it will dampen the destruction.
I remember when Clinton's tax budget was proposed in 93, and every conservative said (without exception and without any doubt whatsoever) that it would send us into a deep recession.
As always, the conservatives were dead wrong. These guys get it right less than a stopped clock.
The contrary happened, a huge recovery and the late 90s boom. So yeah, I will mark your words. Will you eat them if they turn out to be wrong? |
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