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Obama's Stimulus. Saviour or Disaster?
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Will the Stimulus Work?
Economic Saviour
3%
 3%  [ 1 ]
Something needs to be done
45%
 45%  [ 14 ]
Disaster
51%
 51%  [ 16 ]
Total Votes : 31

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Rusty Shackleford



Joined: 08 May 2008

PostPosted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 9:20 pm    Post subject: Obama's Stimulus. Saviour or Disaster? Reply with quote

Do you think the stimulus will save the US economy? Or is it a pork laden spend up that will leave future generations carrying the burden?
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Jeff's Cigarettes



Joined: 27 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Wed Feb 11, 2009 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The worst thing that happened was "W" wasn't allowed to serve as Pres for life, IMO. Of course it's pork laden and only increasing the dept while not offering any long term strategy. The Empire was a better idea and the timing was perfect. Here�s what the Congressional Budget Office had to say about "Bamma's Crib" Communist Stimulating Package.


"President Obama�s economic recovery package will actually hurt the economy more in the long run than if he were to do nothing, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation, said the House and Senate bills will help in the short term but result in so much government debt that within a few years they would crowd out private investment, actually leading to a lower Gross Domestic Product over the next 10 years than if the government had done nothing.

CBO estimates that by 2019 the Senate legislation would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent on net. [The House bill] would have similar long-run effects, CBO said in a letter to Sen. Judd Gregg, New Hampshire Republican, who was tapped by Mr. Obama on Tuesday to be Commerce Secretary."
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grendellives



Joined: 06 Jan 2009

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeff's Cigarettes is a republican? Wow! I din't see that one coming Rolling Eyes
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Dude Ranch



Joined: 04 Nov 2008

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obama's stimulus is like a guy gettin laid off of work and saying he is going to stimulate his own personal economy by re modelling his kitchen
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Demonicat



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Location: Suwon

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, its more like a rich guy who after seeing lots of people with no work suffering says, "Y'know, I'm sure I have some yard work that needs doing". The goal is to make jobs. We may not need a ton of new roads, or new broadband, or this or that- but by making them we make jobs. By making jobs, we encourage spending, spending which constitutes 2/3's of the American economy. Letting it be without doing anything will just not work right now, hell we tried that and watched as the banks collapsed. Pure tax cuts do not work as they do relatively little for the 623,000 people out of work.

A note about the 623,000 number which was released today. That is the number of new people filing for unemployment benefits. By nature that is severely skewed low, as it does not factor in most hourly employees, new employees, or a substantial number of construction/blue collar workers.

A challenge to all who would hate on the stimulus...no, two challenges- pick your favorite:
1) Give an alternate solution
2) Move to the US, get a new job, and live for at least a year without going into debt
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Forward Observer



Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Location: FOB Gloria

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I haven't met any republicans or conservatives that have had any visceral or emotional dislike for the Obama the way liberals did with Bush.

I think the Onion had it right when it said: "America gives world's hardest job to black man".
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Rusty Shackleford



Joined: 08 May 2008

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Demonicat wrote:
No, its more like a rich guy who after seeing lots of people with no work suffering says, "Y'know, I'm sure I have some yard work that needs doing". The goal is to make jobs. We may not need a ton of new roads, or new broadband, or this or that- but by making them we make jobs. By making jobs, we encourage spending, spending which constitutes 2/3's of the American economy. Letting it be without doing anything will just not work right now, hell we tried that and watched as the banks collapsed. Pure tax cuts do not work as they do relatively little for the 623,000 people out of work.

A note about the 623,000 number which was released today. That is the number of new people filing for unemployment benefits. By nature that is severely skewed low, as it does not factor in most hourly employees, new employees, or a substantial number of construction/blue collar workers.

A challenge to all who would hate on the stimulus...no, two challenges- pick your favorite:
1) Give an alternate solution
2) Move to the US, get a new job, and live for at least a year without going into debt


Your grasp of basic economics is faulty at best my friend. Your reasoning is what's called "the Broken Windows Fallacy." BY your reckoning it would be a good idea to break a lot of windows in order to create jobs for glaziers and they would in turn create jobs for others. Unfortunately what you are really doing is destroying wealth as the guy that got his windows broken now can't buy the things he wanted.

All the stimulus will do is in most cases shuffle work around. Probably from productive to unproductive means of production. You should google "Economics in One Lesson." It's a book that was written in the 40s that I wish every politician and poster on Daves would read. It's free so I emplore you to educate yourself about the basic tenets of what markets are and how they work.
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Demonicat



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Location: Suwon

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Friend, I have read that and while it is very well written it is not gospel. I understand and usually sympathize with the libertarian viewpoint (the glazier story outed you), and usually I find myself leaning towards it myself. At this time, however, I have to disagree with it. The window is already broken. We did not break it to create jobs, the window is broke. We can either leave it broken, or hire the people to fix it.

This was pointed out by Keynes who made it quite clear that even building meaningless pyramids would be beneficial if it created work. In addition, Bastiat himself said that the boy is in fact a benefactor, just not the best possible benefactor. Furthermore, in our modern society the issue is not that there is no money, so the cost of the window is passed on, but that the money is held withing banks and holdings. Therefore, the cost to repair the window is made liquid and allowed back into the economy.

Finally the book you suggest everyone read, in which the broken window theory is postulated, is in fact a short essay "That which is seen and that which is unseen", it was written in the 1850's not the 1940's. Have you read it?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The goal is to make jobs.


At what cost, to whom, and when?

Quote:
1) Give an alternate solution
2) Move to the US, get a new job, and live for at least a year without going into debt


This is an issue of contracting demand. The preceding 20 or so years of economic growth have by in large been due not to added productivity, but increased access to credit. Economists call this the "consumption compromise" (instead of rising wages, workers get more credit, which gives the illusion of prosperity).

So, these jobs that are being lost cannot be stopped. There are structural changes happening that even Obama can not fight. Credit has peaked, and is now contracting. This can't be stopped. Ergo, the consumption and economic activity that depended upon this credit will contract. The economy is 72% consumption, and this is falling.

So, a "stimulus". This, from borrowed money. What this means is that the jobs of the future won't be created. Public borrowing will crowd out private investment (finite dollars on earth) and less investment = less economic growth. So, to "stimulate" a few jobs today, we kill untold jobs tomorrow.

The first rule of economics is to look beyond "what is seen" and search for what is "unseen".

From this, the appropriate action is to ensure that those who are unemployed have access to fair unemployment insurance. The economy is retrenching and unemployment is a consequence of this. The role of the state should be to help those who have fallen 1) not hit bottom and 2) get back up. 1) is done with EI and 2) with some kind of scheme to get them into technical schools.

The stimulus is a way for government to avoid the tough choices. The reorganizing of trade agreements, the necessary changes to tax policy, the total rebuilding of the financial services industry.

It is the most pedestrian and idiotic of all possible actions by the state. It is blunt, undirected, political, inefficient, wildly expensive and stands no chance of affecting meaningful short-medium-long term change. A few jobs here and there are added, many more lost, and a trillion in debt.
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Demonicat



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Location: Suwon

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So you are then suggesting an increase in welfare instead of jobs? Interesting theory, but you're the first to give an alternative, so I won't attack you
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Demonicat wrote:
So you are then suggesting an increase in welfare instead of jobs? Interesting theory, but you're the first to give an alternative, so I won't attack you


EI isn't welfare. It is a program that workers pay into.

The government can't create jobs. It can move them around. In this case, it will move jobs from the future into the present. But even IF the jobs today all stick around and all are good, middle class jobs this will STILL be a net loss of jobs. Because debt costs more than the principle. You must pay interest. So the very best case scenario, where we're all jerking Keynes off in his grave to great success, will on balance harm the future economy because we have to pay interest on the debt, which further sucks capital out of the private sector, will lower the value of the currency, worsen the governments balance sheet and make it god damned impossible to deal with SS, medicare/aide.

Given that we're already in a depression now, I don't think it wise to start building up the next one.


Feel free to attack.
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Demonicat



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Location: Suwon

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We spent 700 billion in Iraq and bush gave out a 1.3 billion dollar tax cut not long ago. Before I end for the night, I ask why is the 700 million dollar stimulus more despicable than the money already spent. Fox news fans?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Demonicat wrote:
We spent 700 billion in Iraq and bush gave out a 1.3 billion dollar tax cut not long ago. Before I end for the night, I ask why is the 700 million dollar stimulus more despicable than the money already spent. Fox news fans?


It is like a dude arguing to a judge that he has the right to beat his wife because her ex husband beat her too. Nonsense.

Absolutely and totally irrelevant.


Last edited by mises on Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Demonicat



Joined: 18 Nov 2004
Location: Suwon

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, what? Rusty, myself, and a few others have been having a serious economic discussion. We disagree, but back up our words with facts. Now you're calling me a peasant? Do you realize how stupid that sounds in a debate on economic policy? I suppose its pointless to argue that EI is all well and good for top white collar workers, but is not available for the majority of Americas, and to rely on it now would require a mix of hindsight and Doc brown's delorean.
Now, your theory on preventing future debt is with merit, but the reality is that 14% or more of Americans are without jobs, houses are being foreclosed on daily, and where I'm at (for another week) in Baltimore, people are having to be forcibly evited into the freezing cold. While its easy to pontificate that they should have thought of this before, not many people had the idea to say "hmm, AIG and company are acting fishy, better be careful and pay a significant portion of my paycheck...that already barely covers my expenses... to get me some EI"
In short, times are rough and saying "do nothing" is easy but damn cold hearted.

smooth edit, btw
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Demonicat wrote:
Ok, what? Rusty, myself, and a few others have been having a serious economic discussion. We disagree, but back up our words with facts. Now you're calling me a peasant? Do you realize how stupid that sounds in a debate on economic policy?


Well, I edited it for taste.. Sounded more rude when I read it. No, not calling you a hack.. BUT, the whole "Bush did it" is hackery. Sorry. But it is. And that is for peasants. Obama has to fix this, not make it worse. And the United States has some very serious near-term economic problems with medicare/aide and SS.

Back on topic.

Quote:
I suppose its pointless to argue that EI is all well and good for top white collar workers, but is not available for the majority of Americas, and to rely on it now would require a mix of hindsight and Doc brown's delorean.


So expand EI for a temporary depression relief. Cheaper, gets the job done.

Quote:
Now, your theory on preventing future debt is with merit, but the reality is that 14% or more of Americans are without jobs, houses are being foreclosed on daily, and where I'm at (for another week) in Baltimore, people are having to be forcibly evited into the freezing cold.


EI. And to be heartless, they couldn't afford those homes. Further, they were at some point paying their mortgage and the vast majority haven't lost their jobs and can pay rent. I'm renting an apartment for slightly less than 50% of the listed asking price. Rents are crashing. EI can mop up the destitute.

Quote:
While its easy to pontificate that they should have thought of this before, not many people had the idea to say "hmm, AIG and company are acting fishy, better be careful and pay a significant portion of my paycheck...that already barely covers my expenses... to get me some EI"


Expanding unemployment insurance, temporarily, is the best solution. It does the least long term damage as it would be cheap (relatively).

Quote:
In short, times are rough and saying "do nothing" is easy but damn cold hearted.


Who said "do nothing"?
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