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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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 Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 6:14 am Post subject: The International Scale |
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Rise in Jobless Poses Threat to Stability Worldwide
PARIS � From lawyers in Paris to factory workers in China and bodyguards in Colombia, the ranks of the jobless are swelling rapidly across the globe.
Worldwide job losses from the recession that started in the United States in December 2007 could hit a staggering 50 million by the end of 2009, according to the International Labor Organization, a United Nations agency. The slowdown has already claimed 3.6 million American jobs.
High unemployment rates, especially among young workers, have led to protests in countries as varied as Latvia, Chile, Greece, Bulgaria and Iceland and contributed to strikes in Britain and France.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/business/15global.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
So far, governments have reacted sanely. Give it a year or three and if this thing continues, we could start to have real problems with stability. This was on my mind tonight as I watched 'For Whom the Bell Tolls' (Spain, 1937). While I don't think history repeats itself, human nature never changes. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:01 am Post subject: |
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The governments of the world have not been acting sanely at all. They have become gangs of panic stricken lemmings following the same Ponzi economics that created this Depression and are driving us further into the mire. The NY Times is still behind the curve on this:
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Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:35 am Post subject:
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caniff wrote:
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| What do you foresee happening over the course of the next few years? |
The initial euphoria in Obama and hope for the future has already ended. His plan is being passed and it won't work.
The Pres and his party will claim to have passed what we need to begin the recovery. They will claim that we need to give it time.
The market will continue to fall. There will be a bottom in the market between March and December, probably between DOW 6,000 and 7,000.
After we have waited for a few months, there will be another major round of bad news as the ill effects of this mistaken plan begin to damage the economy. This will offset the private sector recovery that will have actually begun and take us to new lows. Another massive round of layoffs will ensue. The Depression will become obviously and painfully worse.
Obama will not be able to do more so soon this year - which is good news as that would be even more damaging. So, the economy will attain a temporary bottom sometime in 2010. This is the bottom that the market will predict by turning sometime in 2009.
However, since things have at least 12 to 20 months to fall before that bottom kicks in, by the time it does, Obama and his gang of Ponzi Economists will be blaming someone else for the damage that they themselves actually caused. They will once again take action and again drive down the economy.
As all this takes place, there will be growing calls from nations around the world for protectionism. Many smaller nations will increase protection for their countries which will drive them further into Depression. The US will, hopefully resist. However, the 2010 elections will undoubtedly bring overwhelming pressure to do something to protect America and we will get some bad legislation. This plus Obama's need to act again due to the damage his already bad program has had will drive us into a renewed downturn, deepening and extending the depression for several more years worldwide.
There is no way to know just how bad this will get. Every time the Government interferes in the economy it will get worse. This event is too deep and too serious, and the damage the government has created too great, for the economy to overcome even more government damage in the short run.
As things worsen, and after several years of this Depression, there is a strong likelyhood of some new totalitarian regime taking hold in some major nation (Russia, perhaps) along with ensuing international military conflicts. There will certainly be numerous local and regional wars due to the economic pressures and the desperate measures smaller evil regimes will undertake to survive.
The Second Great Depression will not end until the US government takes steps to reverse its bad policies, detax incomes and property, and deregulate the economy.
Most importantly of all, we must eliminate the massive government debt overhanging the economy and get back on a gold standard. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 8:41 am Post subject: |
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| So far, governments have reacted sanely. |
ROFLMAO! That's a good one!
OK, yat, I'll give you another chance on our bet: I say violent revolution within two years. You on? |
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RJjr
Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp
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| Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 1:29 pm Post subject: Re: The International Scale |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| High unemployment rates, especially among young workers, have led to protests in countries as varied as Latvia, Chile, Greece, Bulgaria and Iceland |
Oh no. We can't we find enough Muslims or Jews in these countries to scapegoat.  |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Oh no. We can't we find enough Muslims or Jews in these countries to scapegoat. |
Give 'em time. The paranoids are endlessly creative.
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ROFLMAO! That's a good one!
OK, yat, I'll give you another chance on our bet: I say violent revolution within two years. You on? |
I thought you'd like that one. I stand by it. So far there seems to be a consensus to work together with other countries, recognizing this is an international problem.
I can see people rioting in the streets when their job disappears and there's no heat in the house for winter. Frustration and panic are powerful emotions. What I don't see--yet--is a rival political philosophy. Civil chaos is a breeding ground for that, and it's possible someone somewhere is preaching some alternative to liberal democracy. I don't see communism making a come-back. Maybe a new form of fascism. But so far, nothing, and you don't have a revolution without a philosophy.
Maybe we need to define our terms: violent revolution
I consider a revolution to be a significant change in social/economic/political forms. Students manning the barricades is just insurrection, not revolution in my opinion.
Your turn. |
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michaelambling
Joined: 31 Dec 2008
Location: Paradise
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| Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
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| Oh no. We can't we find enough Muslims or Jews in these countries to scapegoat. |
Give 'em time. The paranoids are endlessly creative.
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ROFLMAO! That's a good one!
OK, yat, I'll give you another chance on our bet: I say violent revolution within two years. You on? |
I thought you'd like that one. I stand by it. So far there seems to be a consensus to work together with other countries, recognizing this is an international problem.
I can see people rioting in the streets when their job disappears and there's no heat in the house for winter. Frustration and panic are powerful emotions. What I don't see--yet--is a rival political philosophy. Civil chaos is a breeding ground for that, and it's possible someone somewhere is preaching some alternative to liberal democracy. I don't see communism making a come-back. Maybe a new form of fascism. But so far, nothing, and you don't have a revolution without a philosophy.
Maybe we need to define our terms: violent revolution
I consider a revolution to be a significant change in social/economic/political forms. Students manning the barricades is just insurrection, not revolution in my opinion.
Your turn. |
A new form of fascism is a very real possibility. After all, Italian fascism and German national socialism (Godwin lol) were borne from economic ruin; people tend to want a reliable, confident authority to take care of them in times of hardship. Why else are there no atheists in foxholes?
Since the Greatest Generation will be pretty much gone in ten years, the memory of the Holocaust will fade (I think it already is), and a generation that has not seen a truly gruesome, large-scale war will set the stage for WW3. Ironically, the Iraq war may turn out to be a real blessing, if it makes people horrified enough at the thought of war to stave off global annihilation. Bush might wind up being remembered favorably by history as a stumbling Forrest Gump, despite his best efforts to be a screw up. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:26 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
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ROFLMAO! That's a good one!
OK, yat, I'll give you another chance on our bet: I say violent revolution within two years. You on? |
I thought you'd like that one. I stand by it. So far there seems to be a consensus to work together with other countries, recognizing this is an international problem.
I can see people rioting in the streets when their job disappears and there's no heat in the house for winter. Frustration and panic are powerful emotions. What I don't see--yet--is a rival political philosophy. Civil chaos is a breeding ground for that, and it's possible someone somewhere is preaching some alternative to liberal democracy. I don't see communism making a come-back. Maybe a new form of fascism. But so far, nothing, and you don't have a revolution without a philosophy.
Maybe we need to define our terms: violent revolution
I consider a revolution to be a significant change in social/economic/political forms. Students manning the barricades is just insurrection, not revolution in my opinion.
Your turn. |
We are almost in agreement here about on what to disagree. I say "violent overthrow of the government." |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:03 am Post subject: |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
| Quote: |
ROFLMAO! That's a good one!
OK, yat, I'll give you another chance on our bet: I say violent revolution within two years. You on? |
I thought you'd like that one. I stand by it. So far there seems to be a consensus to work together with other countries, recognizing this is an international problem.
I can see people rioting in the streets when their job disappears and there's no heat in the house for winter. Frustration and panic are powerful emotions. What I don't see--yet--is a rival political philosophy. Civil chaos is a breeding ground for that, and it's possible someone somewhere is preaching some alternative to liberal democracy. I don't see communism making a come-back. Maybe a new form of fascism. But so far, nothing, and you don't have a revolution without a philosophy.
Maybe we need to define our terms: violent revolution
I consider a revolution to be a significant change in social/economic/political forms. Students manning the barricades is just insurrection, not revolution in my opinion.
Your turn. |
We are almost in agreement here about on what to disagree. I say "violent overthrow of the government." |
I would put it this way:
Sometime in the next 3 to 5 years, the economic Depression caused by the fascist-socialist, fiat money, Ponzi economists will lead to a revolution, defined as a violent attempt to overthrow the government of some significant nation, by the people of that nation, as a reaction to this Depression.
We will see such a revolution somewhere. It may or may not succeed. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:31 am Post subject: |
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| We are almost in agreement here about on what to disagree. I say "violent overthrow of the government." |
Yes, we are. Almost.
I'm willing to go along with your 'violent' part. I'm even willing to give you points on a failed revolution if there are enough heads on pikes.
Now....WHOSE country? In the beginning of this, it was my impression you were talking about the US.
If Albania, Latvia and Gabon fall like dominoes, I won't be willing to grant you points. For you to win, I think we have to measure 3 Albanias as being equal to 1 Czech Republic; a Poland + an Argentina = 1 Germany, if you get what I mean.
What say you? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:38 am Post subject: |
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I forgot:
What do we do about military coups? I don't consider them a revolution since they don't change social/economic structure. They just shoot a couple of people and take rights away, put on funny hats and wave the flag. I don't think they are revolutionaries in the sense I mean. |
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