Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Omkara]

I'm looking to get any kind of picture on the won between now and early April, then again for the next two months. Thoughts?

[.res.ipsa.loquitor]

Speaking purely as someone who has kept up with the financial news, heard the opinions of ordinary Koreans, and tracked the won for about six months, I would expect more of the same for the immediate future.

I expect the won to once again reach parity with the Canadian dollar within 12 months. That's my prediction, and you can hold me to it

The American will take longer, unless the USD falls considerably against the won. I see this as unlikely, because like it or lump it, the American dollar is still the lynchpin of the world economy. It will not be allowed to depreciate too much.

[Robot_Teacher]

My crystal balls say it will linger between 1400 and 1600 most of the time for quite some time to come. That is until the US dollar collapses in value when China tightens the purse strings on issuing debt to Uncle Sam in his service to finance his social system (read economic stimulus) catering to failed nonperforming executives, banks, and corporations.

[michaelambling]

Slow but steady recovery back to 2002-2005 entropy. There will be some ups and downs (probably 1200-1400) for a few months, but by the end of this year I think we'll see pretty stable 1000-1200 averages.

I also think the global economic crisis will be mostly over by the end of this year, so it might be best to ignore me.

[T-J]

It could be a very interesting day today.

[Omkara]

Indeed. There was some kind of surge owing to the purchase of toxic assets? Is this what you refer to?

[T-J]

Indeed.

[Real Reality]

South Korean Won to 1 US Dollar
Three Month: 95% prediction interval
Low: 999 --- High: 1573
RatesFX - South Korean won, KRW, Prediction and volatility data table
http://www.ratesfx.com/predictions/pred-krw.html

S. Korean Won to US Dollar Currency Exchange Rate
April 2009: 1,494 --- July 2009: 1,344 --- October 2009: 1,195
http://forecasts.org/won.htm
Chart: http://forecasts.org/images/exchange-rate/won.gif

[xCustomx]

[Omkara]

By simply taking the medians of the predictions of the given chart (above), we can assume 1355 is the one month projection, and that 1285 is the three month projection.

Granted, the margins are quite wide; but to make calculations given such wide margins, a median is the best number to use.

But as we just mentioned above, today will be interesting. Let's see where this latest rally gets us.

[Omkara]

Another interesting feature of the data is:

1 Month: 1178 - 1530

3 Month: 999 - 1572


Look at the worst case projections. They project that the mid 1500s are as low as they think it can possibly get.

In addition, the trend projected is solidly upward.

[cedarseoul]

that same web site had the 3mo "high" close to 2000 a week ago. their algorithms seem to be based entirely on daily movement rather than on longer-term trends. i wouldn't put much stock in it...

[Rusty Shackleford]

It will go up, down or stay the same.

You may be able to predict short term shifts because of obvious events or announcements, but trying to predict with any certainty over any time period, is a waste of time.

[crlb2006]

has there been a surge today? maybe today's the day for me to exchange some won (?)

[Omkara]

We're at 1381, which is just above the median projected by the chart above.

But if you can hold off for a few months, that'd probably be wise.

I'm going home for a few months, and so am concerned about the short term, how much I should take home, how much to send home later, etc.