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If Pakistan collapses.....

 
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canuckistan
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Joined: 17 Jun 2003
Location: Training future GS competitors.....

PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2009 3:09 pm    Post subject: If Pakistan collapses..... Reply with quote

http://www.smh.com.au/world/warning-that-pakistan-is-in-danger-of-collapse-within-months-20090412-a40u.html

North Korea, Shmorth Korea.

Pakistan is the pile of *beep*-in-waiting. Like one big suicide bomber.
I'm not happy about the Swat Valley deal with the Taliban--"formalizing" their toehold was insane.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is the big elephant in the room these days, isn't it? No one knows what to do about Somalia and it has 'only' about 30 million people. How could anyone deal with a nuclear armed Pakistan with 170 million people if it collapsed?

The paranoid in me thinks it could turn into a major World War III-sized scenario.

Scary.
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OneWayTraffic



Joined: 14 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Terrorists are unlikely to have the ability to maintain a nuke stockpile. They may have a use it or lose it scenario.

It's possible we'll see intervention on this. At least to secure the nukes.
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canuckistan
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 22, 2009 7:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

....and so it continues:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/22/pakistan.taliban/index.html

Quote:
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Taliban militants who implemented Islamic law in Pakistan's violence-plagued Swat Valley last week have now taken control of a neighboring district.

Control of the Buner district brings the Taliban closer to the capital, Islamabad, than they have been since they started their insurgency. Islamabad is 60 miles (96 km) from the district.

"Our strength is in the hundreds," said Moulana Mohammad Khalil, as heavily armed men openly patrolled the roads in pickup trucks, singing Islamic anthems.

The militants had taken control of the area to ensure that Islamic law, or sharia, is properly imposed, Khalil said.

The government called the advance into Buner a breach of a recently-signed peace agreement.

"Now Taliban are violating the peace agreement, and if they continue the government will take strict action and not allow the Taliban to create a parallel government in that area," said Mian Iftikhar, a spokesman for the regional administration in the North West Frontier Province, where Buner is located.

Last week, the Taliban imposed sharia law in Swat Valley as part of a peace deal with the government. Under the Taliban's strict interpretation, the law prevents women from being seen in public without their husbands or fathers.

Earlier this month, the militant movement made forays into Buner and clashed with locals before withdrawing.

Now the Taliban appear to have returned in force -- a move that indicates the recent government concessions may have emboldened the militants to expand their reach..........


We've all learned the Taliban exploit weak states and move in like cockroaches.
Too much of Pakistani territory is ripe for this.

It's another giant *beep* pile waiting to happen.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OneWayTraffic wrote:
Terrorists are unlikely to have the ability to maintain a nuke stockpile. They may have a use it or lose it scenario.

It's possible we'll see intervention on this. At least to secure the nukes.


And for the first time ever in my life, that is an "intervention" I'd support.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We've already intervened. Those nuclear stockpiles are secured. Its just not public knowledge.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well shit man. Don't go spreading it on eslcafe. Don't you know they're watching?

Anyways, glad to know I can go ahead and oppose any "intervention" or the continued nonsense in Pakistan.
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GwangjuParents



Joined: 31 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
We've already intervened. Those nuclear stockpiles are secured. Its just not public knowledge.


And you know this how?

Did they send in 007 or something?
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GwangjuParents wrote:
Kuros wrote:
We've already intervened. Those nuclear stockpiles are secured. Its just not public knowledge.


And you know this how?

Did they send in 007 or something?


There have been hints that American forces are in Pakistan. But its a sensitive issue.

And no, I'm not going to tell you how I know this. You're free to disbelieve my baseless claim.
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ManintheMiddle



Joined: 20 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 7:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, OP, Pakistan has been a disaster in the making for years now. And Kuros is correct; their nuclear arsenal has been secured.

But what I find interesting is how so many on the Far Left get all riled up every time an American drone targets a militant (re: potential terrorist) hideout.

And then there are the namby-pamby liberal types who tremble at the thought of offending the Pakistani people by our intervention.

Well, guess what: Pakistan is already close to being another failed state. In some respects, it is more unstable than the DPRK too.

We gotta do what we've gotta do. Of course, with Obama it will be easier to convince the Left to let our military have its way. Had this all come down now on Bush's watch they would have refused to even consider its merit out of sheer spite and for villification.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If "we" do have their nukes secured, I hope the state collapses so they can be removed. That crazy ass country should never have been allowed to develop them. If I had to pick, I'd take a nuclear armed Iran over Pakistan easily. In Iran, the government is nuts and the people less so (meaning over time the state will become less nuts). In Pakistan, both the government (or public security institutions) and people are totally nucking futs. Of course, best would be neither have them. That should be the goal.
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OneWayTraffic



Joined: 14 Mar 2005

PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ManintheMiddle wrote:
Yes, OP, Pakistan has been a disaster in the making for years now. And Kuros is correct; their nuclear arsenal has been secured.

But what I find interesting is how so many on the Far Left get all riled up every time an American drone targets a militant (re: potential terrorist) hideout.

And then there are the namby-pamby liberal types who tremble at the thought of offending the Pakistani people by our intervention.

Well, guess what: Pakistan is already close to being another failed state. In some respects, it is more unstable than the DPRK too.

We gotta do what we've gotta do. Of course, with Obama it will be easier to convince the Left to let our military have its way. Had this all come down now on Bush's watch they would have refused to even consider its merit out of sheer spite and for villification.


Fortunately the people who wrote the Constitution left the President as commander in chief of the armed forces. Not the 'Left'.
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TexasPete



Joined: 24 May 2006
Location: Koreatown

PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ManintheMiddle wrote:
Yes, OP, Pakistan has been a disaster in the making for years now. And Kuros is correct; their nuclear arsenal has been secured.

But what I find interesting is how so many on the Far Left get all riled up every time an American drone targets a militant (re: potential terrorist) hideout.

And then there are the namby-pamby liberal types who tremble at the thought of offending the Pakistani people by our intervention.

Well, guess what: Pakistan is already close to being another failed state. In some respects, it is more unstable than the DPRK too.

We gotta do what we've gotta do. Of course, with Obama it will be easier to convince the Left to let our military have its way. Had this all come down now on Bush's watch they would have refused to even consider its merit out of sheer spite and for villification.

Well it seems that more often than most would be comfortable with, those drones end up hitting wedding parties and things that have nothing to do with terrorism.

That said, if Pakistan collapse, i'm 100% behind sending in whatever special (or regular) forces we need to, in order to secure and remove the Pakistani nukes. I'm sure Right and Left can agree on that one. I just hope whatever contingency plan the Pentagon has come up with is a damn good one.
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bacasper



Joined: 26 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2009 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ManintheMiddle wrote:
Of course, with Obama it will be easier to convince the Left to let our military have its way. Had this all come down now on Bush's watch they would have refused to even consider its merit out of sheer spite and for villification.

Excellent point, and one I have made before also. It is like Clinton ending welfare as we knew it. It could never have happened on a Republican watch.

This is the principal reason Obama is even more dangerous than Bush.
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