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ManintheMiddle
Joined: 20 Oct 2008
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 Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 8:47 pm Post subject: Will Obama Finally Stop Trying to Unclench Iran's Fist? |
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With typical idealism borne of ignorance streaked with arrogance more than earned realism, the Obama Administration tried to set a new course of negotiations with the Iranian theocrats and their organ grinder monkey, Ahmadine-jihad.
Not sweet talk but softer words; no harsh rhetoric and less scolding, in the vain hope of bringing the Iranian leadership back to the negotiating table on its quest for nuclear arms. Wishful thinking at best; naivete at worst. It didn't work, as the Israelis knew all along. You can't negotiate in good faith with a Muslim dictatorship, or any dictatorship for that matter.
Obama hesitates to respond to the brutal crackdown on protestors in the streets of Tehran and is rewarded with more scapegoating of the West. Dictators always need their bogeymen. At least this time Britain came in for more blame than the U.S., but not by much.
The latest threat from Tehran:
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President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed Saturday to make the U.S. regret its criticism of Iran's postelection crackdown and said the "mask has been removed" from the Obama administration's efforts to improve relations.
Ahmadinejad � with his internal opponents virtually silenced � all but dared Obama to keep calling for an end to repression of demonstrators who claim the hardline leader stole re-election through massive fraud.
"You should know that if you continue the response of the Iranian nation will be strong," Ahmadinejad said in a speech to members of Iran's judiciary, which is directly controlled by the ruling clerics. "The response of the Iranian nation will be crushing. The response will cause remorse."
Ahmadinejad has no authority to direct major policy decisions on his own � a power that rests with the non-elected theocracy. But his comments often reflect the thinking of the ruling establishment.
The cleric-led regime now appears to have quashed a protest movement that brought hundreds of thousands to the streets of Tehran and other cities in the greatest challenge to its authority in 30 years. There have been no significant demonstrations in days, and the most significant signs of dissent are the cries of "God is great!" echoing from the rooftops, a technique dating to the days of protest against the U.S.-backed shah before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Days of relatively restrained talk from both Washington and Tehran appear to be returning to a familiar pattern of condemnation and recrimination despite Obama's stated desire to move away from mutual hostility. Iran and the U.S. still appear interested in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, but the rising rhetorical temperature can be expected to slow progress toward a deal, experts said.
"The political feasibility of pursuing it, and the likelihood of success has changed," said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council. "I have a hard time seeing any real engagement taking place for at least four to six months."
Obama acknowledged Friday that Iran's violent suppression of unrest would hinder progress, saying "There is no doubt that any direct dialogue or diplomacy with Iran is going to be affected by the events of the last several weeks."
Obama struck a conciliatory tone toward Iran after taking office, sending a video greeting for Persian New Year that used the government's formal name � the Islamic Republic of Iran � in a signal that the goal of regime change had been set aside. He even avoided strong language as Iran began suppressing street protests, saying he wanted to avoid becoming a foil for Iranian hard-liners who blame the United States and other Western powers for instigating internal dissent.
But Obama decried Iran's crackdown more vigorously as amateur videos of beating and shootings began flooding the Internet. He said Friday in his strongest condemnation yet that violence perpetrated against protesters was "outrageous," and dismissed a demand from Ahmadinejad to repent for earlier criticism.
"I would suggest that Mr. Ahmadinejad think carefully about the obligations he owes to his own people," Obama added.
"We are surprised at Mr. Obama," Ahmadinejad said. "Didn't he say that he was after change?
"They keep saying that they want to hold talks with Iran. All right, we have expressed our readiness as well. But is this the correct way?" Ahmadinejad told judiciary officials. "They showed their hand to the people of Iran, before all people of the world. Their mask has been removed." |
Meanwhile, back at the ranch...
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Members of the Basij militia have been raiding homes and beating residents in an attempt to stop the chanting, Human Rights Watch said, accusing authorities of seizing satellite dishes to prevent citizens from seeing news broadcast from overseas. Iranian officials have blamed the British Broadcasting Corp., Voice of America and other news channels for fomenting unrest on behalf of Western governments.
"While most of the world's attention is focused on the beatings in the streets of Iran during the day, the Basijis are carrying out brutal raids on people's apartments during the night," said Sarah Leah Whitson, the rights group's Middle East director. |
Once again those brave Muslim fanatics beat old men and women in the street, engage in drive-by shootings of young women like Neda, carry out tactics that would have made the Brownshirts proud, blow up girls' schools in Pakistan and Afghanistan, throw acid on the faces of their wives and girlfriends there and elsewhere, and generally act in a way that shows they fear the other half of the populace.
The male-dominated theocracy of Iran is no different. They are simply biding their time, holding off the West long enough to build their nuclear arsenal. They don't give a damn what we think and they never will. Meanwhile, they hold their own people hostage, a tragedy as they've got the most potential in the region, the Lebanese and Gulf States notwithstanding.
Maybe it will finally dawn on Obama how fruitless his rhetoric has been and will continue to be.
In 1961 at Vienna, JFK got a drubbing from Nikita Kruschev, Still wet behind the ears, his ears were boxed. But JFK, a war veteran, was a quick study in reality and didn't allow the same to happen bravado to be displayed by the Russian tyrant during the Cuban missile crisis.
Except JFK was at least a fledgling hawk in 1961. Obama, by contrast, is still a pigeon, or maybe a sitting duck. Of course, he's shrewd enough as a Chicagoland politico to change course.
But will he? When do you think the gloves will finally come off? When does his administration dispense with the charade of a new world order, drop the euphemistic rhetoric, and start calling a spade a spade?
Time is running short to take a stand and the Israeli fighter jets are good to go. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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| What's the proposal from the other side? I see mention of Israeli fighter jets there, along with Neda as well. Can the former somehow be used to protect the latter? At the moment the regime is quite split right up to the top (Rafsanjani, Larijani, Montazeri, Shirazi, etc. etc. etc.); what's the guarantee that a military strike won't result in a healing of this rift that seems to be playing out quite well on its own at the moment? |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Sat Jun 27, 2009 11:42 pm Post subject: Re: Will Obama Finally Stop Trying to Unclench Iran's Fist? |
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| ManintheMiddle wrote: |
| With typical idealism borne of ignorance streaked with arrogance more than earned realism, |
Can I get an explanation for the bolded part of the quote above? |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 12:48 am Post subject: |
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Here's a very different view of 'realism'.
"There may not be much that can be done to help the opposition, though some tangible steps -- more money for broadcasting into the country, for example -- are readily available. But at the least, nothing should be done that would harm the cause of change. That is not just the moral course; it is the most pragmatic and realistic."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/26/AR2009062603986.html
I don't particularly like or agree with the rest of the editorial, but the ending quoted above is good as well as correct. For the first time in a generation Iran has the possibility of transforming itself into a normal nation. Things have quieted down on the street but there is still movement going on behind the scenes. No one can predict what will happen, but it's pretty safe to say what bombing Iran would produce--another generation of hostility.
The wise thing to do right now is to play it close the to vest and take no risks. Many things are possible in the next weeks and months...the Lebanese election, the opening of relations with Syria, the Cairo speech, the Iranian demonstrations...things are moving our way. |
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ManintheMiddle
Joined: 20 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 8:41 am Post subject: |
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caniffinquired:
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| Can I get an explanation for the bolded part of the quote above? |
Realism earned is realism gained from the school of hard knocks, in the field, so to speak, as one with combat experience like John McCain or Colin Powell has. Obama has none of this and, alas, neither did most in the second Bush Administration. JFK earned his not only in war but in coming to grasp with the Machiavellian nature of geopolitics, at least as played by police states like Iran and North Korea, China, and Russia for that matter. Syria is also a police state as was Iraq.
Ya-Ta Boy insisted:
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| No one can predict what will happen, but it's pretty safe to say what bombing Iran would produce--another generation of hostility. |
Yes, I predict without a tinge of doubt that Israel will bomb the living daylights out of Iranian nuclear facilities unless Iran ceases its clandestine program.
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| The wise thing to do right now is to play it close the to vest and take no risks. Many things are possible in the next weeks and months...the Lebanese election, the opening of relations with Syria, the Cairo speech, the Iranian demonstrations...things are moving our way. |
You're dreamin' if you think that any of these overtures will put pressure on the Iranian Guardian Council to discontinue its nuclear weapons program. But in saying so you make my point. And you're a big Obama fan, aren't you?
mith mythologized:
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| what's the guarantee that a military strike won't result in a healing of this rift that seems to be playing out quite well on its own at the moment? |
It's playing out, all right, to a predictably unsavory conclusion. The mullahs aren't going to cave in to the opposition's demands. The rift matters little when all the power is in the hands of a few. And let's not forget the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, which backs up the authorized street gangs and the rulers. More than half of all Iranians still back Ahmadine-jihad, too, let's not forget, and we all know who's bidding he does.
It is wishful thinking to believe the Iranian leadership will suddenly come to its senses--they feel entitled to nuclear weapons and nothing short of destruction of their facilities for making them is going to change things.
Mousavi is hardly cut from a different cloth; it was he who led millions of young Iranians to the slaughter against Iraq in the that border war. If his followers put nationalism above reform, so be it. Persians are very nationalistic by nature and anti-Israeli. Neither of those popular sentiments are going to subside with Obama's "Midas touch." If anything, a toothless and hapless response by the mullahs to an Israeli aerial attack might do more to precipitate an uprising.
Khadafi came to power in Libya by ousting a weak monarch from the ranks of the military. Mousharaff also came from the military ranks; it might very well take the same in Iran.
Meanwhile, the pointless primping and posturing of Western leaders continues. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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| More than half of all Iranians still back Ahmadine-jihad, too, let's not forget, |
What is your source for this claim?
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| You're dreamin' if you think that any of these overtures will put pressure on the Iranian Guardian Council to discontinue its nuclear weapons program. |
Right now the immediate pressure on the Iranian government is wholesale questioning of their entire system by a very significant portion of their own population, including many of Ahmadinejad's supporters (according to several reports). It's much too soon to know if the system will survive. Reza Aslan has said from the beginning that the election scam was a coup by the Revolutionary Guard. The theocracy itself is now being held in place by the force that has been displacing it during A's first term. On top of that, the system was a revolutionary system devised by Khomenei and is at odds with traditional Moslem political thought. In short, there's lots of potential for fundamental change within Iran. 'Do no harm' is the first rule of medicine; it seems applicable in this situation as well.
Anyway, the last election in the US was in part a rejection of the neocon's cowboy diplomacy.
Question #1: Does your constant harping about the nuclear program amount to an obsession?
Question #2: What would be the political results, short and long term, of an Israeli air attack on Iran? Don't feel constrained to say 'Problem solved. Mission accomplished.' Elaborate on your view of the consequences in the region and around the world. |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Sun Jun 28, 2009 8:36 pm Post subject: |
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That's a stupid editorial that just harps on the same old tired Fox hatred of Obama.
What needs to happen is for about 20 or so of Iran's top mullahs to be taken out by sniper teams. They could be American, they could be British, they could be Iranian democracy activists, they could be Canadian for all I care.
When these arrogant dog turds start seeing their colleagues' brains exploding out of their turbans live on television, they'll start to develop a sense of perspective on human rights, and why freedom of speech is in their own best interests. |
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asylum seeker
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Location: On your computer screen.
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| Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 12:41 am Post subject: |
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| You forgot to put on the caps lock for your title. |
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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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| Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 2:27 am Post subject: |
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| ManInTheMiddle wrote: |
Yes, I predict without a tinge of doubt that Israel will bomb the living daylights out of Iranian nuclear facilities unless Iran ceases its clandestine program.
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Let's hope so.
| Manner of Speaking wrote: |
What needs to happen is for about 20 or so of Iran's top mullahs to be taken out by sniper teams. They could be American, they could be British, they could be Iranian democracy activists, they could be Canadian for all I care.
When these arrogant dog turds start seeing their colleagues' brains exploding out of their turbans live on television, they'll start to develop a sense of perspective on human rights, and why freedom of speech is in their own best interests. |
Music to my ears
Like Tony Blair said on CNN yesterday, Obama has given the Iranians the best deal they're gonna get.
Let's see if this turns into a popular revolution first (and assist any revolutionary forces against any resistance thereafter).
Iran is a potential Turkey (only richer). The fact that it isn't already is due to its Islamocracy. It really is that simple. |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 4:23 am Post subject: |
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| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Iran is a potential Turkey (only richer). The fact that it isn't already is due to its Islamocracy. It really is that simple. |
Yep. Pictures of Iran in the 1970s and Iranians hanging out now show that pretty well. Plus those living in the north of the country speak Turkish anyway (technically Azeri, but it's almost the same) so there's a lot of Turkish cultural influence in the country.
In any case, I see no reason for haste. At the moment Iran is working something out, and the less interference there is the more can be known about its inner workings. At the same time individuals are providing protesters with a lot of help (anonymous ips to use, Google hastily added Persian to its automatic translation a few days after the election, sites like this one and Twitter are doing what they can), and then of course there's BBC Persian (not even a year old) to provide a counterbalance against state TV. They even added a few new satellites last week to counteract being jammed by the government. |
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Manner of Speaking
Joined: 09 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 4:44 am Post subject: |
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What this election and these protests show us is that Iran per se is not the problem. I have Iranian friends who are moderate muslims who have left Iran and settled in Canada because of the stifling lack of freedom there, and these protests show that there are millions of them.
They're just ordinary people like you and me, people who want to be dentists, businesspeople, teachers, civil servants, who want to make a decent living and read and watch on TV whatever they want, and want their government to operate like a big, quiet public utility the way Canadians and Europeans operate theirs. 
A half a dozen well-trained sniper squads would do that country a world of good. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Mon Jun 29, 2009 9:25 am Post subject: |
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| asylum seeker wrote: |
| You forgot to put on the caps lock for your title. |
I think I finally succeeded in curing him of the habit.
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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 12:15 am Post subject: |
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Hitchens:
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At a recent Hezbollah rally in south Beirut, Lebanonn, in a large hall that featured the official attendance of a delegation from the Iranian Embassy, the most luridly displayed poster of the pro-Iranian party was a nuclear mushroom cloud! Underneath this telling symbol was a caption warning the "Zionists" of what lay in store. Hezbollah has certainly been allowed to form the idea that the Iranian reactors may have nonpeaceful applications. This means, among other things, that the vicious manipulation by which the mullahs control Iran can no longer be considered their "internal affair." Fascism at home sooner or later means fascism abroad. Face it now or fight it later. Meanwhile, give it its right name.
http://www.slate.com/id/2220520/ |
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asylum seeker
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Location: On your computer screen.
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| Posted: Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:14 pm Post subject: |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| asylum seeker wrote: |
| You forgot to put on the caps lock for your title. |
I think I finally succeeded in curing him of the habit.
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Then how will I know at a glance which threads to avoid? Guess I'll just have to look out for the alarmist Obama hatred and paranoia. |
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