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Who would take over North Korea after it falls?
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Mr. BlackCat



Joined: 30 Nov 2005
Location: Insert witty remark HERE

PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I just want to point out, that while many people have rejected the theory of china stepping in (and its not my theory, this theory is being bounced around in DC as we speak), and thats fine, you're allowed your opinion, i see very few honest alternatives.

I doubt very seriously the idea of "everyone likes the status quo". China and the US do not like the idea that the first buyer with cash comes along can buy them a nuke. Or near perfect copy of american dollars. Or pure heroin. Or any number of things the north could and would sell. So the idea of "its all talk, everything will always be same" is fiction


I should clarify. I didn't mean to say that China WOULDN'T come in. I said that China doesn't want to. China definitely would try to maintain control if the regime were to fall, but it would do everything it could to stop that from happening. So, I agree with you that there are few if any alternatives to Chinese intervention, I just don't believe China wants any part of it. It's a burden of necessity.

Also, by saying everyone likes the status quo, I mean the status quo right now (redundant?). The NK regime falling is not the status quo, and therefore yes, the US and China wouldn't want the first buyer coming in to get the nukes or what have you in that case. My point was that both the US and China want to keep things the way they are, except China doesn't care about the current nuclear tests and the US does. China probably wants NK to have nukes to ensure the pennisula stays divided while the US doesn't want the nukes because they think it might lead to invasion. So, basically, even though they might disagree with how to make sure of it, they both want the same thing: Nothing to change.

And no, I don't believe SK really wants reunification. Well, at least most common people don't. Every single Korean I've gotten to know well enough to speak honestly about this was clear that they would not support it if it ever came close to becoming a reality.

Anyway, I'm just some punk with too much time on his hands on some internet forum. What do I know? I just don't believe anything will happen with NK in the near future. But that's just me.
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ashland



Joined: 05 Dec 2008

PostPosted: Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

it will be UNIFIED KOREA
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Cordova



Joined: 14 Apr 2009

PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Walmart could turn it into a Supermercado Del Walmart Zone. The U.S. could ship all of the illegal Mexicans there to grow veggies, have state approved Bull Fights, and steal cars from the South.
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js99



Joined: 25 May 2009

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, South Korea would ultimately gain control of North Korea- but there are several things that would help up the Kim regime for at least another 5-10 years;

~ Neither China nor South Korea wants to be responsible for the massive amounts of money it would take to bring infrastructure into North Korea. It would cost billions of $US to provide a viable regional transitional government in North Korea and neither of them have planned for that.

~ Next, China might try to weasle their way into claiming North Korean territory, especially along the Yalu, by pointing to the Northeast Project...
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Summer Wine



Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to say that I find some of the arguments put forwards a little absurd.

Who says N.K. has to collapse. China could just change the government, place thier own people in charge and run them from behind the throne as a king maker.

The country gets developed just like any other part of China, an open railway is set up between S.K. and China via N.K.

Everyone is happy, the West gets a stable non threatening country, the South gets to not have to pick up the tab and continue making speechs about how they will join. China gets a satelite state that acts as a buffer but is in all but name a province.

Win win, or they just keep on staggering along like an alcholic sponsered by China as it keeps them in the loop and acts as a bumper. The whole China does things because it wants to look good is crap, its a hardcore realist state.

If its in its best interest to accidently drop missiles on Guam, strong arm East Asia and South East Asia to drive out the US, it will do it regardless of what the rest of the world thinks.

1994 it took over a small reef in the Philippines. It made a house from bamboo and claimed it was a rescue shelter for shipwrecked sailors.
1998, it was a nice concrete building attached to a bamboo bridge.
2006 it was an armed military base that provides a stop over for naval vessels.

They don't care how it appears to the rest of the world now, they simply claim all of the South China sea. They also make statements that they will use weapons to defend thier claims.

They are realists.

(post edditted)
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RJjr



Joined: 17 Aug 2006
Location: Turning on a Lamp

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zang Gil Jah
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Ukon



Joined: 29 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I find it funny many mention the cost of bringing the north up to speed....

If they do it will be an investment...not a money sink. Investment money would pour in like crazy....this isn't Iraq.

The South Needs more land and cheap labor......South Korea would benefit greatly once factories start being built and foreign investors start comming in......

North Koreans work for some of the lowest wages in the world...even lower than Indians....The South taking over isn't gonna change that. I imagine South buisness owners will work them worse than Kim Jong il making Samsung LCDs for a sleight pay increase. Not put them on welfare and bring up every building to Seoul safety standards...
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fermentation



Joined: 22 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 7:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ukon wrote:

The South Needs more land and cheap labor......South Korea would benefit greatly once factories start being built and foreign investors start comming in......

North Koreans work for some of the lowest wages in the world...even lower than Indians....The South taking over isn't gonna change that. I imagine South buisness owners will work them worse than Kim Jong il making Samsung LCDs for a sleight pay increase. Not put them on welfare and bring up every building to Seoul safety standards...


You're implying Koreans will treat their own blood like third world immigrants?
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Ukon



Joined: 29 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 7:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fermentation wrote:
Ukon wrote:

The South Needs more land and cheap labor......South Korea would benefit greatly once factories start being built and foreign investors start comming in......

North Koreans work for some of the lowest wages in the world...even lower than Indians....The South taking over isn't gonna change that. I imagine South buisness owners will work them worse than Kim Jong il making Samsung LCDs for a sleight pay increase. Not put them on welfare and bring up every building to Seoul safety standards...


You're implying Koreans will treat their own blood like third world immigrants?


Hell yes! After a year of being here, I bet my paycheck it will happen....if you think they're pay South korean wages your dreaming.

Do you think east germans were paid west german wages after renunification? Rolling Eyes
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nathanrutledge



Joined: 01 May 2008
Location: Marakesh

PostPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 8:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Besides, the North Koreans aren't worth South Korean wages. Their education, their knowledge of the modern world, they are stuck in the 50's. The investment in education would have to be huge to train the people to work in the modern world.

Actually, I think now would be the best time for reunification, from an economic standpoint. The recession is ravaging world economies. If they were to reunite today, the amount of money that would be invested, the number of managers and instructors that would move to the North... it would be the largest stimulus to the economy in the world (and it would actually work!).
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Dude Ranch



Joined: 04 Nov 2008

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I say kick the door in so hard the whole rotten country comes down

Complete suprise attack from US/ROK forces. No warning, no nothing. Hit them fast and hard.

The DPRK will collapse if you hit them hard enough. There is no leadership there. It is just a corrupt, autocratic, communist state that will fall.

Instantly get rid of the DPRK leadership. Any member of the communist party (mid and senior members), and espically Kim and his buddies, get a bullet in the head automatically. No trials, no nothing.

All the most starving, deprived, worthless peasants get shipped to concentration camps, worked to death, or instant bullet in the head.

Depopulate the country (start with the hard core communists, mentally disturbed, sick and ill, etc)

Transport remaining North Korean farmers across South Korea to work on S. Korean's farms, factories.

Wipe out all traces of the communist regime. Anyone caught protesting instantly gets shot, or mandatory 10 + years in hard labour camp

North Koreans will be a source of cheap labour that South Koreans can exploit and can be shipped across the penisula.

Encourage South Korean farmers, entrepreneurs, industrialists, etc to move up North by offering tax incentives if they relocate. Also encourage Koreans living abroad to come home again to be part of the 'reconstruction of the great fatherland' Korean's need living room. South Korea is too small, the need more space

Set up Special Economic Zone's to encourage investment from Japan, China, Russia, USA.

Gradually the USA Army can leave the penisula after 15 - 20 years. There will be peace. It will just take time
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sugarkane59



Joined: 10 Jun 2009
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Please sort out your usage of their and there. Basic stuff really.
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ThingsComeAround



Joined: 07 Nov 2008

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haven't read the entire thread 'cuz I am too tired.

But here is my take:
SK really really wants a link to the mainland. Japan is against it.
A land link to China/Russia means they can ship their goods to Europe and the mid-East for much, much less than Japan, who MUST rely on boats & air for any of their products to get anywhere.

Second, SK is over-developed. By this I mean they are plowing down farmland to put up silly cookie-cutter style apartments. Hmm... with a northern 'neighbor' less hostile, SKoreans would be free to expand the population north and bring skilled individuals (engineers, architects, construction, farmers) to the area and branch out. They already have the common language. I just wonder if a Noko adjosshi is willing to listen to a Soko on how to do anything

Third, China is not interested in having more Koreans in their borders. Hell- they can't even control their own people (because they treat them like dog sh!t under their heel) so SK should prepare to step up their efforts to engage the north delicately

China cannot handle Tibet nor can they handle Urumqi. They can't build their own buildings properly, and for those that are well-constructed (hutongs) they tear them down in favor of the 'high rise'. China has enough problems.

Japan cannot and should not interfere. They should instead consider a tunnel which will link them to SK:
http://inventorspot.com/articles/japankorea_undersea_tunnel_may_j_10795

The US could ease tension by giving the Noko what they want: direct and private talks. The last prez didn't want this, however if they are going to show that they want to ease tensions, this would be a good start. As for rebuilding, the US should be hands-off and take the military OUT of SK

I do wonder about firearms from the North coming to the South. Do you believe that if they reunited that the Northerners would hand in their AKs? Rolling Eyes
Also, human rights is a big issue: the northerners are not used to 'basic rights' that your everyday SK worker enjoys. And the SK are aware of this. Who would abuse who? Confused

Last, Russia doesn't give a rat's patoot what happens to NK. They can travel to both countries no problem..
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Emeliu



Joined: 31 Mar 2009
Location: Korea, i'm OMW

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

America isn't going to take their army out of South Korea, ever. We need a military base in Asia and we have it, how great is that?
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Fri Jul 10, 2009 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Emeliu wrote:
America isn't going to take their army out of South Korea, ever. We need a military base in Asia and we have it, how great is that?


It's incorrect, that's what it is. Besides, there is Japan.

The USA had pretty much made steps to pull everything out of Seoul, but who blocked it? Yep... South Korea. The USA has turned control of forces to South Korea -- also an important step.

I've been here long enough to see that a certain element of South Koreans want to have their cake and eat it too. They want the ability to say they hate the USA being here, that they're oppressed, and that the USA doesn't want to leave. Then, when the USA makes any motions as to actually leaving, the same group runs with their tail between their legs and starts whining about how the USA is "punishing us for not giving in to their demands" in negotiations for whatever.

Not all South Korean's are like this -- only a certain very vocal group. The previous president of South Korea might have been considered one of them.
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