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Korean Job Discussion Forums "The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
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nathanrutledge
Joined: 01 May 2008 Location: Marakesh
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Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:41 pm Post subject: |
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Nuclear - too unstable and unpredictable
Ethanol - impractical due to large energy inputs to produce a fuel that yields a comparatively small energy output
Wind/Solar - technology still has a long ways to go.
So I guess he is saying that the oil will run out faster than we will create a new technology that will replace all of the oil-driven combustion engines. [/quote]
The whole topic was based on shipping goods from China by boat, right? Wind technology has a long way to go? What about the Mayflower/Ni�a/Pinta/Santa Maria/Constitution/etc.......??? There is a company in Germany that just launched a modern sail powered cargo vessel. It's currently being tested, but the technology is centuries old. They are now working on using modern components with the old technology and it's looking quite promising.
Coming from a fairly self sufficient family, if the day comes that rubber dog poop and melamine laced food becomes too expensive, I won't lose any sleep. |
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youtuber
Joined: 13 Sep 2009
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Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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I'm just guessing here, but they probably switched from using sails to engines for a reason right? Engines probably get you to the destination much faster. Engines probably allow a boat to travel to/through places where sails wouldn't work as well? Due to rough seas or whatever? And they would probably need massive sails on a scale never seen before to transport an equivalent amount of cargo.
It would be cool if it happens, but it seems like the run up on oil costs will happen much quicker than that technology could be implemented on a world-wide scale.
And don't get me wrong, I would be incredibly happy if products were made in Canada again.
High oil prices may end up having many more benefits than drawbacks (ie cleaner air, less traffic, regional manufacturing) |
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Joe666
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 Location: Jesus it's hot down here!
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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youtuber wrote:
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I'm just guessing here, but they probably switched from using sails to engines for a reason right? Engines probably get you to the destination much faster. Engines probably allow a boat to travel to/through places where sails wouldn't work as well? Due to rough seas or whatever? And they would probably need massive sails on a scale never seen before to transport an equivalent amount of cargo.
It would be cool if it happens, but it seems like the run up on oil costs will happen much quicker than that technology could be implemented on a world-wide scale.
And don't get me wrong, I would be incredibly happy if products were made in Canada again.
High oil prices may end up having many more benefits than drawbacks (ie cleaner air, less traffic, regional manufacturing)
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Time is money! If it takes 3x as long to get a ship to destination X. The loss could be greater than the fuel cost.
Brazil - They are using ethanol is auotmobiles in the southern portion of the country. This fuel source is temperature dependant. Ethanol has a very low melting point. If it's too hot, it just evaporates  |
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youtuber
Joined: 13 Sep 2009
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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And since China is very energy inefficient in their production, they will be having big problems in the near future I think.
Europe has implemented a cap and trade system for emissions. The rest of the West will probably follow. And if there is cap and trade, a tariff on emissions on goods that are imported will probably follow.
So China will have high transportation costs to deal with AND imposed emission tariffs on their exports.
They can't keep burning coal forever. The West won't stand for it. Why should the west have to abide by Kyoto and reduce emissions while China continues their dirty ways? |
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blackjack

Joined: 04 Jan 2006 Location: anyang
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:14 pm Post subject: |
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| youtuber wrote: |
I'm just guessing here, but they probably switched from using sails to engines for a reason right? Engines probably get you to the destination much faster. Engines probably allow a boat to travel to/through places where sails wouldn't work as well? Due to rough seas or whatever? And they would probably need massive sails on a scale never seen before to transport an equivalent amount of cargo.
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They are not looking at sail as a replacement to engines but a supplement. A bit like a hybrid car. If you can cut your fuel costs buy 30% (made up number), and replace it with a near zero priced fuel source that is a massive saving.
As others have said oil will not run out, it will simply become uneconomical to extract. However as the price of oil increases more sources become economical to tap, oil sands, capped wells, oil water wells. This being said at some point it will become uneconomical to extract and we will have to turn to alternative sources.
What we really need is for some of the big economies to really push new energy sources by investing some major cash into new technologies. Hell if the US came up with a new energy source they could pull out of the middle east and let them fight it out among themselves |
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youtuber
Joined: 13 Sep 2009
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Ah ok. Hybrid ships. A cool idea. |
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Joe666
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 Location: Jesus it's hot down here!
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Hell if the US came up with a new energy source they could pull out of the middle east and let them fight it out among themselves |
Never happen! This is way off topic, but I just need to say this. The U.S. will never pull out of the middle east. It will be a continuous baby sitting job to monitor terrorism and their activities. Sort of like the baby sitting job the U.S. is doing in South Korea. |
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jhuntingtonus
Joined: 09 Dec 2008 Location: Jeonju
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:58 pm Post subject: Re: Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller |
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| youtuber wrote: |
-a new book I am reading by Jeff Rubin, former Chief Economist for a major bank in Canada (CIBC).
In one part of the book he says that shipping goods in from China will be cost-prohibitive due to ridiculously expensive oil prices in the not too distant future.
He argues that manufacturing and trade will become more regional and local due to the increasing scarcity of oil.
Since China's economy is based on exports to the West, I guess that would mean they are "hooped". I guess that could apply to Korea and Japan as well.
It seems entirely plausible, but quite opposite of all of the Rise of China media coverage that I hear every day. |
Maybe, if the "not too distant future" refers to 2100 or so... but not sooner. Shipping charges, even if multiplied by 10, are remarkably small for low-weight items anyway. |
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youtuber
Joined: 13 Sep 2009
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:36 pm Post subject: Re: Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller |
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| jhuntingtonus wrote: |
Maybe, if the "not too distant future" refers to 2100 or so... but not sooner. Shipping charges, even if multiplied by 10, are remarkably small for low-weight items anyway. |
I quote from the book, on pg 147:
"As oil climbed to $100/barrel, fuel costs became almost half of the total cost of shipping something by sea."
And:
"The increase in oil prices from $30 to $100/barrel raised the average daily fuel bill of a cargo ship from $9500 to $32,000"
Obviously it will depend on if you are shipping valuable diamonds or cheap furniture. But Rubin is speaking about averages I would assume, and since China ships almost every kind of product, I guess he is allowed to generalize.
What is your source for your information? |
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jhuntingtonus
Joined: 09 Dec 2008 Location: Jeonju
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller |
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| youtuber wrote: |
| jhuntingtonus wrote: |
Maybe, if the "not too distant future" refers to 2100 or so... but not sooner. Shipping charges, even if multiplied by 10, are remarkably small for low-weight items anyway. |
I quote from the book, on pg 147:
"As oil climbed to $100/barrel, fuel costs became almost half of the total cost of shipping something by sea."
And:
"The increase in oil prices from $30 to $100/barrel raised the average daily fuel bill of a cargo ship from $9500 to $32,000"
Obviously it will depend on if you are shipping valuable diamonds or cheap furniture. But Rubin is speaking about averages I would assume, and since China ships almost every kind of product, I guess he is allowed to generalize.
What is your source for your information? |
I'm not talking about averages - obviously some products will be affected more than others, and may already have been. But the products with high value-to-weight ratios, not anywhere near diamonds, would need vastly higher oil prices to be prohibitive to ship, especially when oil prices affect the cost of making something in, say, California and shipping it to Chicago, too. |
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Konglishman

Joined: 14 Sep 2007 Location: Nanjing
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Joe666 wrote: |
youtuber wrote:
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| Nuclear - too unstable and unpredictable |
I'm not quite sure I agree with this one. Yes, the waste generated has to be stored for a long time, but the saftey features of contemporary reactors are pretty safe.
If the whole "oil is running out" scenario is true, then nuclear is the only proven option that generates a decent amount of energy. It may be the only option.
Here's a thought. Start stock-piling crude oil now for the important elements of your society that run solely on fossil fuels. |
Breeder reactors largely take care of the "waste" problem. If it had not been for the supposed "wisdom" of Jimmy Carter, the USA would be using breeder reactors right now. In fact, France and Japan now lead the world in nuclear breeder reactor technology. |
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youtuber
Joined: 13 Sep 2009
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Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller |
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| jhuntingtonus wrote: |
| But the products with high value-to-weight ratios, not anywhere near diamonds, would need vastly higher oil prices to be prohibitive to ship, especially when oil prices affect the cost of making something in, say, California and shipping it to Chicago, too. |
How do you know it would need to be "vastly" higher? Where are you getting your information? As we all know, China exports basically everything (high and low value to weight), so it is perfectly acceptable to talk about averages. They will probably take a big hit overall, but you are right, on some products, like high-end electronics, it won't matter as much. The point is that they will take a big hit overall.
And why ship something to Chicago when you can make it in Chicago for cheaper? The choice doesn't have to be just between California or China. That is the whole point of the book.
And read what he thinks about emission tariffs (I wrote above). Do you honestly think that the West is not going to eventually penalize China for all of the coal it is burning? Why should the West have to control emissions but China does not? The economies of the West probably will level the emissions playing field by putting a tariff on dirty Chinese imports. That will be a double whammy on China's cost advantage. So perhaps Cali will be cheaper than China. |
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mua'dib
Joined: 29 Sep 2009 Location: sweating pure pocari
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Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:18 am Post subject: |
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I ripped this from an article on examiner.com=
Because a nuclear core demands fresh, refined uranium, there is a constant use-cycle � an unstoppable appetite � that, ultimately pollutes in manifold ways:
1. The diesel burned in extracting the ore produces CO2, CO, NOX, SOX, dioxins, VOCs among the other expected particulates from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels.
2. The dust produced from mining becomes airborne and settles on downwind communities, increasing the cancer rate noticeably.
3. The diesel burnt in shipping the heavy rock to processing produces the same slew of pollutants as the heavy mining machinery, while trailing radioactive dust along the way.
4. The mill itself burns up millions of KWh every year, KWh generated, in this day and age, almost exclusively from burning coal � high SO2, H2SO3 and H2SO4 meet heavy metals like Hg with the clouds of greenhouse gases.
5. The mill must vent many toxic gases as it processes the ore. It must store radioactive slurry in the ground, hoping it will evaporate so the tailings can be capped. Groundwater and runoff pollution occurs. Once capped, the tailings are radioactive for billions of years. Future contamination becomes a certainty. (Just, the mill operators hope, not in their lifetime.)
6. Shipping the yellow cake to market. There are only two enrichment plants in the Northern United States, and one of them is in Canada. Long trips equal large emissions. Much of the yellow cake will be shipped overseas, adding emissions from large container vessels and potential maritime spills to the list.
7. The enrichment facility then vents toxic gases from the reagents used in reducing the yellow cake to weapons-grade uranium.
8. The rods are shipped to power plants, necessitating the fourth round of distribution-related emissions.
9. The rods are used, then spent, sealed up, and transported to a nuclear waste dump � more emissions, more radioactive decay along public roads and waterways.
10. Countless emissions result from policing the waste site.
Of course, none of this includes the emissions from the industrial-scale production of the reagents needed by the uranium refining cycle. Not to mention their weekly delivery to processing mills and enrichment facilities.
And this just scratches the surface. The Japanese and French plants are no exception they look emissions free on paper but the reality is far more frightening. Nuclear power was not, is not and will never be a solution to our energy woes, it is most certainly not emissions free. (plus there are some who believe that the whole nuclear energy program was started as a front to manufacture weapons grade uranium and plutonium but that is a conversation for a different thread)
Also the whole thing about "wind and solar technology not being up to par" isn't entirely accurate, it isn't being taken full advantage of because we are still using all of the other 'dirty' energy like there's no tomorrow.
Do the world a favor, get on your bike! |
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tzechuk

Joined: 20 Dec 2004
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Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:24 am Post subject: |
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| And I believe everything I read in black and white............ |
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mua'dib
Joined: 29 Sep 2009 Location: sweating pure pocari
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Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 12:33 am Post subject: |
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| tzechuk wrote: |
| And I believe everything I read in black and white............ |
I hope I am misinterpreting this. What are you trying to say? |
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