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Korean Job Discussion Forums
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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 Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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| rollo wrote: |
Yeah the trillion euros which doesnt even begin to cover the amount of debt and austerity programs when they need to be spending. they have done NOTHING except talk and made promises they can not keep. They can not force Greece, Portugal, Italy or Spain to contribute to the trillion euro fund. Italy is on the edge, and it doesnt look good. Its frustrating to read the pure b.s. being spewed from over there.
No one seems to have any numbers just speculation, and some of it seems to be hopeful thinking. Well remember if the U.S. sinks too far, than your home country's economy goes completely under. Thats a fact!
OIl goes below fifty and it could, then Great Britain and Canada are gone economically. |
If everyone defaulted at once indeed the trillion wouldn't cover it, but that probably won't happen.
Just speculation? Sounds like pure Davery, man. This board is swarming with people always speculating and then getting excited when they think they're right. "I predicted this!" they say, beating the accumulated knowledge of people who apparently know more about what they're talking about after dedicating their lives to studying these things , but dafties talking smack on an esl internet board apparently know so much better 
(I'm not having a go at you old boy, I'm just souding off generally) |
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Epik_Teacher
Joined: 28 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:18 pm Post subject: Re: The Stock market has finally almost corrected itself |
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| young_clinton wrote: |
| It may be soon safe to put money in stocks again. I hope the Dow hits 9700 tonight. |
LOL! Safe?!? I've been shorting the market with Bear ETF's. I generally don't like ETF's, as they are an elaborate scam. But, there are some that are good for juicing up your portfolio if you have the cash an stomach. Basically, the non-leveraged (1x) bear funds like BearX are the safest, but also the most pedestrian in performance. ETF's like FAZ are prone to evaporate due to the nature of their makeup.
But the one's I'm looking at as less likely to evaporate are as follows: BZQ, DOG, DUG, DXD, EEV, HSD, QID, SKF, SDS, SH, SMN, TWM, TZA and XSL. I already have a few $K in BearX. But, I'm buying SMN (Ultra Short Basic Market Materials). If the market does suddenly go south, basic materials will be one of the first things hit. The other I'm trading now is TWM (Ultra Short Russell 200).
Long term, my plan is to keep my money in $Canook in an IB account in Hong Kong and mostly invest in gold and silver mines. With some ag thrown in for diversity. Hong Kong because I want to be out of the US$ totally long term don't want an American account. They have stiff reporting agreements with the USA, but I still want all of my money out of the USA.
Two years hence, I'll cash out the silver I have and buy some quality Korean and Japanese stocks like KEP and Posco. It should take at least 2x as long for the Korean market to bottom than it did in 1997. Back then, it was 8-9 months. |
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young_clinton
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2010 10:42 pm Post subject: |
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Might be a good time to payback your shorts. Shorting is generally very dangerous. It looks like there is a chance that this is the bottom and stocks are likely to go sideways at this point for quite a while, but at some point they could jump up.
It sounds like you have really thought things out pretty well, but keep in mind that thier are people out thier that are a lot smarter and more knowledgeble than you that won't even touch shorts, in some cases because of personal experience with shorting. These people definitely will do options because you know what you can lose, but definitely won't short stocks. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:00 am Post subject: |
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| young_clinton wrote: |
Might be a good time to payback your shorts. Shorting is generally very dangerous. It looks like there is a chance that this is the bottom and stocks are likely to go sideways at this point for quite a while, but at some point they could jump up.
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It would be easier to believe your optimism if you had anyting to back it up. |
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Epik_Teacher
Joined: 28 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 4:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Might be a good time to payback your shorts. Shorting is generally very dangerous. It looks like there is a chance that this is the bottom and stocks are likely to go sideways at this point for quite a while, but at some point they could jump up. |
Shorting can be dangerous, especially with very volitile ones like FAZ. It's straight math. If something goes from 100 to 110, then back to 100, it's 2x leveraged ETF would go up 20% (100 to 120) then down 18% (120 to 9 So the underlying item is flat while your 2x ETF has lost money. Repeat that dozens of times over a few months and that's where the evaporation comes from. FAZ is 3x, so the effect is accelerated more quickly. In the long run, all leveraged ETFs are headed to zero; they periodically do reverse splits to keep that from happening.
With leveraged ETFs, you have to either get in and out quickly, (quickly take a gain, or stop out on a loss) or be willing to repeatedly buy in on losses, which is risky business and requires tremendous discipline and money/risk management, and a sufficiently large bankroll relative to the size of your bets. The ETF's I've mentioned are among the less volitile ones. I see a dead cat bounce and the market inching up until the end of the month, from August to October, the crash that started in 2008 is finally going to hit home. The only thing keeping it at bay is the $trillions they have thrown to the winds to postpone it.
I think by mid-October, the underlying |
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