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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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 Posted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:14 pm Post subject: New Chinese anti-ship missile may complicate relations with |
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YOKOSUKA NAVAL BASE, Japan � The official photos from a major Asian security forum in Hanoi this week will likely show Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi dutifully smiling and shaking hands. But behind the scenes of the meeting, an ominous new Chinese weapons system that the Pentagon worries could alter the balance of power in the Pacific is further complicating the tense Sino-American military dialogue.
The advanced weapon, a medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile known as the Dong Feng 21D, is �nearing operational capability,� according to a report last year by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence. And if its targeting system proves accurate, the Dong Feng would rank as the world�s first mobile, land-based missile capable of hitting a moving aircraft carrier from nearly 2,000 miles away, depending on its payload and other factors.
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About 12 years ago in my paper on Chinese expansion in the South China Sea, one of the threats I identified was the growth of land based missiles which would essentially prevent US involvement in the maritime areas while allowing greater expansionist actions by China.
This would occur as it would be difficult for the USA to actually target China, while China would expand under the umbrella of missile deterence.
I was sort of lambasted for making a suggestion that was considered impossible to consider as feasible that China would be able to develop land based missiles that would affect US naval strenght in the region.
I based my assesment on what China was doing at the time and what would occur if you took a long term view. I feel vindicated after all these years as most of my predictions are actually coming relevant. Though its a little late now as I pretty much gave up on studying International relations except as a hobby as most people seemed rather ignorant of future trends.
With hindsight, my predictions back in 2000 of a growing islamist militant movement in Indonesia, growing use of missile defence by China as a means of influencing US activities and growing political instability and calls for autonomy by tribal groups in PNG have all come to pass.
I just wish I could go back and meet with that external Intelligence interviewer and rub my paper in his face again and say "what did I tell you?" |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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pkang0202
Joined: 09 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 12:49 am Post subject: |
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I don't think the US is that worried about missile technology that is easily 20-30 years behind the times. US gunboats, destroyers, and escort ships have anti-missile defenses that would make short work of that Chinese Missile.
That's IF that missile ever launches. F-25's, Stealth Fighters/Bombers will make quick work of missile sites in China. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:18 am Post subject: |
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Listen, its nice to believe that China is 20 years behind the US.
It makes good spiel'
The reality is they were stealing your secrets since the eighties.
You have been giving them the secrets since the nineties.
And in 2010, your military is seriously worried they could even wage a war, considering half the crap that makes up your missiles/ military technology is produced in China today.
Though, if you want me to make a guess based on everything I have read in the last ten years.
I would have to say that if America was to go to war against China today, they would recieve the same shock that Japanese technology and innovation gave them in 1941.
Thats what makes me worry.
My country exists today because Japan was defeated then. I don't want to be another potential victim of a nationalist asian country today.
So wake up, smell the roses. China does not love you unless you are bent over and kissing thier arse. They have made that clear to every country (they consider) beneath them since the 1990's. It only in the last 5 years they considered the US the lessers.
That makes them a potential threat. Not because they can succeed, but because they are starting to believe the B/S they sell the rest of us.
They see it as renewing thier position in the global system. I see it as forcing thier ideas on others.
I could be wrong though if I am , then I am sorry. If I am not - then we have a problem.
(post editted)
Last edited by Summer Wine on Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:26 am; edited 1 time in total |
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stilicho25
Joined: 05 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:25 am Post subject: |
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| That is a bit dramatic. China today is not the Japan of ww2. They will expand, but as they already get what they want in the form of minerals from your country (ozzie I am guessing) they won't be bombing anyone. They are playing the long game, and are more interested in obtaining raw materials cheaply (military solutions are rarely cheap!) than in acquiring new territory. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:35 am Post subject: |
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They have already made it clear that thier military growth is designed to protect thier economic growth.
A hypothetical situation - "China arrests a number of Australian citizens, Oz responds by refusing to sell the minerals to China, China responds by protecting thier economic interests".
Japan went to war suppposedly because of economic sanctions against it.
When what China considers its economic interests are in other countries and its military is upgrading to protect those interests, then thats a worry for me.
They aren't worried about pirates if they building nuclear class submarines. Also considering they are friends with half the pirates in the modern world, who are they arming against and whose economic materials are they going to protect?
If they answer these questions honestly, then I would be less concerned. But when since 1994 they have considered terrority 1000 kms from thier coasts to be economically defensible and are pressuring weaker countries to give it up - I question.
1905 - Russia
1910 - Korea
1920's - Manchuria
1930's - Shanghai
1940's - Philippines, Malaysia
Does this ring any bells? |
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stilicho25
Joined: 05 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:39 am Post subject: |
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| The next time China absorbs another country i will agree with you completely. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:54 am Post subject: |
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I am not trying to start a slinging match with you but:
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| The next time China absorbs another country i will agree with you completely. |
Look on a global map, check google for spratly Islands 1994 photos.
Try 1998 photos.
Try 2010 photos.
Educate yourself a little. They are already technically stealing other countries lands.
All in the case of defending thier economic interests. Yes, I understand that ships selling goods from China in the last 50,000 yrs have sank in that region, that doesn't make it Chinese maritime seas because they now want the potential gas and oil under the waters.
The map should educate you, even if nothing else does. So who is doing what in the region? |
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stilicho25
Joined: 05 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:08 am Post subject: |
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I thought about putting the spratly islands in my previous statement, then decided not to. Everyone claims them, and although it is one place China is def throwing its weight around acquire, it isn't what i mean. Its more of a dokdo thing than a manchuria in the 30's thing.
You said you don't want this to be a slinging match and then you go ahead with the "educate yourself" stuff. A bit contradictory.
Anyway, I don't know China's intentions. I agree they are aggressive (tibet, outermongolia, etc), but don't see them outright invading other countries in the same way we saw in the last world war. You disagree. I don't think the conversation is going to go much further. I guess we will have to wait and see. |
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Summer Wine
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Location: Next to a River
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| Posted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 7:15 am Post subject: |
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The specific area I am looking at is only claimed by China and Philippines.
Sorry about the whole 'educate yourself bit', been too long listening to certain cultural languge.
China doesn't have a say in the issue of that particular reef. though when Germany claimed the Czech republic areas, they knew it was the first issue in a long standing battle.
Why should we accept that the Chinese Govt/Military are babes in the woods with thier claims.
I don't need to see a copy of Tibet in the Philippines or even Taiwan to see its a bad idea.
(post edit)
I might see the whole dokdo thing if Japan reclaimed the area and stationed troops on the island based on the fact that some drunk Japanese/korean fisherman got lost 200 years ago.
(pped.) Yeah that didn't read too well. Ok, lets restate the issue.
A reef with a bamboo house in 1992 was stated as a rescue shelter for fishermen.
In 1998, it was a concrete building with bamboo wharfs and the fishermen all looked like military personnel.
In 2004, it was a concrete building with wharfs and anti aircraft positions on the roof in case the flying fish got aggressive.
In 2010, well you take a look at the disputed position.
http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/spratly_with_flags.jpg |
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shinramyun
Joined: 31 Jul 2009
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| Posted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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| stilicho25 wrote: |
| The next time China absorbs another country i will agree with you completely. |
They are already doing it.
If anyone of you think otherwise, then you are either a chinese national, pro-chinese, or a very naive moron.
Read this
http://www.economist.com/node/16595117?story_id=16595117
chinese are claiming other lands and countries because they claim those people were once part of chinese, or part of china historically. This is their excuse to expand their land beyond their border.
chinese tactics of taking over another country or area:
1) Flood the area with chinese immigrants (ex: singapore, malaysia, indonesia, vietnam).
2) Drown out the natives.
3) Claim the area was historically chinese all along (ex: northeastern project, siberia, spratly islands, senkaku/diaoyutai islands dispute). |
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