|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Vagabundo
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
|
 Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:50 am Post subject: will education costs in Korea give way to demographics? |
 |
|
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/02/117_80887.html
| Quote: |
| The reasons for the low birthrate vary but the expense of private education tops the list. The institute�s survey of more than 2,500 households showed that about 43 percent of Korean parents said they gave up having a second child due to education expenses. |
The current birthrate will become a more and more pressing topic in political circles. It's clearly an undesirable and ultimately untenable situation.
Little wonder that the current Lee Myung Bak administration has made improving the quality of public education such a priority, at least in terms of publicity given to it.
within the next 10 years something will have to give. What will it be? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
hondaicivic
Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Location: Daegu, South Korea
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 4:28 am Post subject: Re: will education costs in Korea give way to demographics? |
|
|
| Vagabundo wrote: |
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/02/117_80887.html
| Quote: |
| The reasons for the low birthrate vary but the expense of private education tops the list. The institute�s survey of more than 2,500 households showed that about 43 percent of Korean parents said they gave up having a second child due to education expenses. |
The current birthrate will become a more and more pressing topic in political circles. It's clearly an undesirable and ultimately untenable situation.
Little wonder that the current Lee Myung Bak administration has made improving the quality of public education such a priority, at least in terms of publicity given to it.
within the next 10 years something will have to give. What will it be? |
Massive immigration from North Korea might work. Hey, their blood is more "pure" right? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
liveinkorea316
Joined: 20 Aug 2010
Location: South Korea
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 4:39 am Post subject: |
|
|
I was discussing this topic with my students.
There is the other line of thought that not many people mention which is that a lower birthrate and hence less children will have flow on effects that not many people have been able to quantify yet.
For example, it is conceivable that the lower birthrate will partially solve the education frenzy issue as teachers start to outnumber students and hagwons discount like crazy. Places in schools will be easier to get.
Also childcare costs will decrease as house prices will also go down.
I am not saying a low birthrate is a good thing or not just that there are so many variables that potentially the birthrate could reverse its own decline as less children lead to overall lower costs of raising children and people decide to start making babies again. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
NohopeSeriously
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: The Christian Right-Wing Educational Republic of Korea
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 4:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
| liveinkorea316 wrote: |
| I am not saying a low birthrate is a good thing or not just that there are so many variables that potentially the birthrate could reverse its own decline as less children lead to overall lower costs of raising children and people decide to start making babies again. |
Actually, the cost of raising children has increased since the cost of going to private lessons (South Korea's favorite past time?) also increases as well.
All I can say: the South Korean public is digging its own grave right now. Our residential political rat, Lee Myung Bak, proposed policies that have already spiced up the private education market. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
methdxman
Joined: 14 Sep 2010
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 8:18 am Post subject: Re: will education costs in Korea give way to demographics? |
|
|
| Vagabundo wrote: |
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/02/117_80887.html
| Quote: |
| The reasons for the low birthrate vary but the expense of private education tops the list. The institute�s survey of more than 2,500 households showed that about 43 percent of Korean parents said they gave up having a second child due to education expenses. |
The current birthrate will become a more and more pressing topic in political circles. It's clearly an undesirable and ultimately untenable situation.
Little wonder that the current Lee Myung Bak administration has made improving the quality of public education such a priority, at least in terms of publicity given to it.
within the next 10 years something will have to give. What will it be? |
You can never trust what anyone says. When someone is asked a question like that, no one is ever gonna say, "Well, one kid was enough, I don't want another one because it's just too much trouble." People will think of any excuse and the cost excuse, while true, is just that: an excuse.
Overall, I think people in the OECD countries have experienced a massive change in terms of gender roles and dynamics. Fertility is falling because women just feel less compelled to have children. Women now have much more "purpose" in life than they did just a generation ago. Sometimes one or none is enough. When a woman has a kid, her future earning potential takes a massive hit.
Point is, changing the education system is not going to do anything to fertility in Korea or in any other place. The feminism movement, I think, overshot its purpose and I don't think anyone imagined this would ever have happened (not saying it was bad, but it does have unintended consequences).
The cost of living will only go up as middle classes start to disappear everywhere. The only solution is going to be to use immigrants for labor and to produce children. It makes sense, it's sort of a natural equilibrium that the planet would fall into anyway. The question for Korea and other countries is if the politicians will have the balls to open up their borders to ensure their future but screw themselves in the short term (because no one likes immigrants).
(Now waiting for someone to say "Hey, but I know this one person who has a career and also 5 kids so you're wrong." .) |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
blm
Joined: 11 Nov 2010
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 6:47 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Plus one for methdxman.
It's just natural that once a country develops and women actually have the option of a decent career the birth rate goes down.
Ecconomists get all worried about it but Korea won't need so much labor in the future and even if it does Nth korea will be happy to supply it.
If there's no one picking boxes of the street and we all buy our vegetables from the supermarket then Korea should be able to cope. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
jurassic82
Joined: 21 Jun 2006
Location: Somewhere!!!!
|
| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 10:54 pm Post subject: Re: will education costs in Korea give way to demographics? |
|
|
| methdxman wrote: |
| Vagabundo wrote: |
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/02/117_80887.html
| Quote: |
| The reasons for the low birthrate vary but the expense of private education tops the list. The institute�s survey of more than 2,500 households showed that about 43 percent of Korean parents said they gave up having a second child due to education expenses. |
The current birthrate will become a more and more pressing topic in political circles. It's clearly an undesirable and ultimately untenable situation.
Little wonder that the current Lee Myung Bak administration has made improving the quality of public education such a priority, at least in terms of publicity given to it.
within the next 10 years something will have to give. What will it be? |
You can never trust what anyone says. When someone is asked a question like that, no one is ever gonna say, "Well, one kid was enough, I don't want another one because it's just too much trouble." People will think of any excuse and the cost excuse, while true, is just that: an excuse.
Overall, I think people in the OECD countries have experienced a massive change in terms of gender roles and dynamics. Fertility is falling because women just feel less compelled to have children. Women now have much more "purpose" in life than they did just a generation ago. Sometimes one or none is enough. When a woman has a kid, her future earning potential takes a massive hit.
Point is, changing the education system is not going to do anything to fertility in Korea or in any other place. The feminism movement, I think, overshot its purpose and I don't think anyone imagined this would ever have happened (not saying it was bad, but it does have unintended consequences).
The cost of living will only go up as middle classes start to disappear everywhere. The only solution is going to be to use immigrants for labor and to produce children. It makes sense, it's sort of a natural equilibrium that the planet would fall into anyway. The question for Korea and other countries is if the politicians will have the balls to open up their borders to ensure their future but screw themselves in the short term (because no one likes immigrants).
(Now waiting for someone to say "Hey, but I know this one person who has a career and also 5 kids so you're wrong." .) |
Yeah, I totally agree with you! The low birth rate has little to do with the cost of education. Education costs might play a small factor but low birth rates are common all over the world right now. Some countries are even giving incentives to people who have children (Singapore). I do agree that private education costs are a major burden on families in Korea but I think there are other factors as well like career mothers, cost of living (not only the cost of education), inflation, etc..... that play a role in this. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Vagabundo
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 5:58 am Post subject: |
|
|
you guys are kind of missing the point though.
there's low birthrate, and there's Korean birthrate (one of the world's lowest)
the problem isn't so much what to do with the schools that will have to be shuttered and the teacher that won't have anyone to teach.
the biggest problem is that every country's pension system is set up with the idea that 4 young(er) workers are paying for every retiree (or at least 3)
with geezers living longer and longer, pissing all over themselves before they finally die ,while spending a fortune on medical "care", this ratio is now more like 2 for 1.
the math stops working. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Ice Tea
Joined: 23 Nov 2008
|
| Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 6:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
From a business perspective I believe we've already gone through the difficult transition period. I thought it was quite evident back in 2008 that there was a squeeze on hagwons from a drop in enrollment. Many schools went belly up during 2008/2009.
The birthrate dropped to its current level suddenly during the 2000-2002 period, falling from 1.47 births to 1.17. Children born in 2002 would be 7/8 years old now and in grade 2. In raw number there are 488,161 second graders out there. Last year would have been a tough one for hagwons as the number of kindergartners numbered just 433,242. Combined with a loss of purchasing power over the past two years because of inflation, last would be hard on many schools.
But for those that survived the picture begins to brighten somewhat this year. There will be 444,332 kindergartners this year. Next year there will be a mini-boom, as 484,560 children were produced in 2007. The year after that will see another decline in enrollment as only 456,905 will enter kindergarten that year.
According to the data, the demographic crunch has already occurred. It seems the birth rate has bottomed out and that, if anything, we should expect more children to be produced in the coming years, providing relief to hagwon owners and the esl market. This demographic wave will now sweep its way into the private middle schools next, and then finally onto the cramwons for high schoolers sometime near the end of this decade.
That's my two cents on how this whole thing is likely to affect us directly. As for the country as a whole, I think a declining population will be just great. Despite all the doomsday scenerios, Germany, Japan, and Russia are doing just fine now. Unemployment is low and GDP per capita is growing strong. Yes, Japan has some debt issues it must sort out. But it never seemed feasible for Japan to pay off its humongous debt anyways. They will have to do some accounting magic one day and make that debt vanish. IT's just numbers on a computer, I'm sure it can be sorted out without too much devastation. Korea's lucky. It might actually be able to pay off its debt and shrink in size, which would be great for everyone. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
