Korean Job Discussion Forums

[World Traveler]

[wishfullthinkng]

[Kuros]

Interesting article.

He's right on almost all the advantages:

* the emergence of shale oil

* repatriation of industry

* universities

* replacement birthrate

But I do believe he overstates them all. Frakking has some serious adverse side effects on water tables, and may not be sustainable. The repatriation of industry, spurred by China's poor quality control and substandard business practices as well as dollar exchange math, will only mitigate some of the (inevitable) damage of outsourcing the US has suffered over the last two decades. Finally, having a birthrate over 2.0 isn't enough: a replacement birthrate is actually 2.14. America's is under 2.14 (CIA Factbook: 2.06 children/woman). Even though immigration closes the gap, America's population will hold steady or increase marginally. This is not enough of a population to outgrow debt: compare 2.15 children/woman with the steady 3 c/w rate of the post-WWII baby boom.

Nevertheless, the writer's conclusion may be absolutely correct. Despite America's moribund political system and its declining professionalism, America may see a new revolutionary technological boom within the next decade. The secret of the 80s and 90s had less to do with Reaganomics and more to do with the digital revolution: the personal computer + the internet + related advances. Imagine what could evolve in the next decade: hybrid cars (running at $0.03/mile instead of $0.50/mile), cost competitive solar/wind/geothermal power, the delayed potential of bioengineering. The list of possibilities goes on.

The United States would still have to avoid unforced errors. No more expensive Middle East wars. No more morally hazardous trillion dollar bailouts. No more starve-the-beast fiscal strategy.

As they say . . . drunks, children, and the United States of America . . .

[Ya-ta Boy]

It's true the US has advantages, but it is also true the US has squandered advantages, banked on future advantages that may or may not materialize, etc.

Right now, the US has a dysfunctional government because elections no longer mean the majority gets to govern. I would say this is something like an absolute monarchy being inherited by a mental defective for the next however many years. Yes, France was once governed by a king who thought he was made of glass, but France did not prosper during that period.

Once upon a time Spain had annual treasure fleets pouring gold and silver into the national treasury because they could loot the resources of Mexico and Peru. It did not mean Spain was able to overcome her disadvantages. The aristocrats still did not have to actually contribute to society.

The US's greatest asset is its flexibility. I see nothing going on right now to indicate that flexibility is being brought into play. OWS is happening, but so far, nothing is happening with them.