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Which candidate do you think would be the worst president?
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Which candidate do you think would be the worst president?
Barack Obama
12%
 12%  [ 6 ]
Mitt Romney
4%
 4%  [ 2 ]
Newt Gingrich
22%
 22%  [ 11 ]
Rick Santorum
41%
 41%  [ 20 ]
Ron Paul
18%
 18%  [ 9 ]
Total Votes : 48

Author Message
bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

visitorq wrote:
bucheon bum wrote:
So what would you propose instead? Europe (especially the UK) is showing that fiscal austerity might not be quite the answer that the Austrian School and Mises followers think it is.

Um, what? The Austrian school is for limiting government expenditure, lowering taxes, and bringing about sound monetary policy. Austerity in Europe is pretty much just the governments (not democratically elected, but rather appointed banker 'technocrats') raising taxes and looting the public to pay for all the debt they accrued when they bailed out the banks for their derivatives frauds. If the Austrian economists had their way those banks would just be liquidated and countries like Greece would just leave the monstrosity that is the Euro, instead of forfeiting their assets (incl. their gold supply) to pay a bunch of banker crooks.


Fair enough, I stand corrected in regards to the Austrian school.
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Unposter



Joined: 04 Jun 2006

PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay, I sense a lot of criticism of Obama. So, I was just curious as to your opinion why the stock market is up and unemployment is down. Any thoughts?
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
So, I was just curious as to your opinion why the stock market is up

Because central banks have been pumping trillions of dollars (created out of thin air) into stock markets over the past 4 years. Nominal stock value figure increases do not indicate anything of value is being created or that the economy is recovering.

Quote:
and unemployment is down.

Down from what? The all time high in 2009?

Using the U-6 ("real unemployment") statistic from the Bureau of Labor, the unemployment in Jan. 2012 was over 16% (seasonally adjusted to 15.1%). It is not a pretty picture. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

The Congressional Budget Office predicts "the longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression" will continue into 2014: http://www.cbo.gov/publication/42977
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Privateer



Joined: 31 Aug 2005
Location: Easy Street.

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holy crap. What a collection.
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Unposter



Joined: 04 Jun 2006

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 3:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You don't really answer the unemployment question. All you did was change the statistical analysis to make it seem worse than it is. (And, the alternative statistic also shows that unemployment is down).

We all know the economy imploded in 2008 and unemployment sunk shortly after. Since then, unemplpoyment is down. Is that because of what the U.S. government is doing or not? If you wish to answer the question, you certainly don't have to, answer it more directly.
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
We all know the economy imploded in 2008 and unemployment sunk shortly after. Since then, unemplpoyment is down. Is that because of what the U.S. government is doing or not? If you wish to answer the question, you certainly don't have to, answer it more directly.

As I pointed out in my post on the last page, the President is trying to have success by implementing the convenient half of Keynesian economics without the difficult half. High debt and deficit spending CAN boost the economy in the short term. If economic growth continues, stability could be restored.

BUT

Deficit spending to end a recession is an irresponsible gamble with existential consequences if we lose. It's like the United States decided that, instead of planning and investing for the future, it would take out a big loan and go all-in on a game of Russian roulette.

Right now, at a 3.3% interest rate, we pay almost $500 billion per year just on interest payments on national debt. As we saw in "the great debt-ceiling debate", investors lose confidence if it appears that we don't have the ability (or will) to pay. That increases our interest rate which both increases our required payment per year and makes it even more difficult to find the ability/will to repay. Such a spiral rarely ends well.

When you factor in the massive liability that the United States faces in its Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security commitments, you have a recipe for a decline second only to the Soviet Union in the history of the World.

So yeah, unemployment is probably down. But it's at far too high a cost. At the very least, it's irresponsible and unpatriotic.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
Okay, I sense a lot of criticism of Obama. So, I was just curious as to your opinion why the stock market is up and unemployment is down. Any thoughts?


I was wondering who were the, let's just call them people, who were the left-wing equivalent of those who believe Obama has any control over gas prices. Well, thanks to unposter, I know who they are: people who believe Obama has any control over the public equity markets.
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ontheway



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
You don't really answer the unemployment question. All you did was change the statistical analysis to make it seem worse than it is. (And, the alternative statistic also shows that unemployment is down).

We all know the economy imploded in 2008 and unemployment sunk shortly after. Since then, unemplpoyment is down. Is that because of what the U.S. government is doing or not? If you wish to answer the question, you certainly don't have to, answer it more directly.




The stock market appears to be up, but adjusted for the massive real inflation rate it is not.

The unemployment rate is still horrible using the real stats - not the phoney government ones. It appears to be better because the Fed has been pumping trillions of dollars into the economy in an attempt to blow a new bubble which has caused some new malinvestment and some employment growth based on the illusion of a recovery.

He did not mention that many workers have given up looking, or are no longer counted as unemployed or are underemployed having taken jobs that are temporary, part time, or much lower level in terms of pay and duties than their previous jobs. This makes the stats look better than they really are.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jaykimf wrote:

Kuros wrote:
Its op-ed shallow sophistry at its worst.
Krugman' s position is supported by the actual results of the austerity policies as well as by the main stream body of economic thought over the last 60 years. You may disagree with Krugman, but to label his writings as sophistry reflects poorly on your own shallow analysis and argument.


*shrugs*

visitorq wrote:
Krugman is an absolute fool, and beyond discredited. I can't believe his name is even tossed around anymore.


Seconded.
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jaykimf



Joined: 24 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
jaykimf wrote:

Kuros wrote:
Its op-ed shallow sophistry at its worst.
Krugman' s position is supported by the actual results of the austerity policies as well as by the main stream body of economic thought over the last 60 years. You may disagree with Krugman, but to label his writings as sophistry reflects poorly on your own shallow analysis and argument.


*shrugs*

visitorq wrote:
Krugman is an absolute fool, and beyond discredited. I can't believe his name is even tossed around anymore.


Seconded.

So, you're one of those,
Kuros wrote:
let's just call them people,
who can't do any better than ad hominems.
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ontheway



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, Krugman is a fool and his disciples are bigger fools for following him.

Governments in Europe, the US etc. have run up massive debt - in good times and bad - debt that can never be repaid.

The resulting bubbles caused malinvestment that led to recessions and the 1st and 2nd Great Depressions.

Krugman wants the governments of the world to blow more massive bubbles and begin another cycle that will result in even worse economic conditions down the road and a bigger collapse.

The "austerity" he complains of is not austerity at all. Europe has not insituted massive cuts that will result in: significantly smaller governments, tax cuts, balanced budgets and either paying down or abdicating the debt - that would be austerity. Instead what Krugman calls austerity is the Europeans running continuing deficits that are smaller than what he would like with no tax cuts and a growing debt that they hope will be manageable.

In short, Krugman is complaining that the Europeans are not blowing a big enough bubble.

The difference is akin to a heroin addict choosing whether to take a smaller or bigger dose for his next binge to get over his current withdrawl symptoms.



What the Europeans and the US need to do is cut their total government spending to approximately 10% of GDP - or the amount they can raise with a 10% tax on consumption - repealing all other taxes: abolish nearly all programs, abolish entitlements, shrink the military, end the wars, end the wars on personal liberties, repeal victimless crime laws, pardon and free those convicted, slash government payrolls and pay levels, stop paying elected officials altogether and get their economies producing and moving again. They need to dump the failed fascist-socialism of Krugman et al and end the welfare state. This should be done at once. Cold turkey.


No more heroin for Krugman.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
You don't really answer the unemployment question. All you did was change the statistical analysis to make it seem worse than it is. (And, the alternative statistic also shows that unemployment is down).

We all know the economy imploded in 2008 and unemployment sunk shortly after. Since then, unemplpoyment is down. Is that because of what the U.S. government is doing or not? If you wish to answer the question, you certainly don't have to, answer it more directly.

What is your point? So unemployment dips slightly from being "very high" to being "still very high" ...and what? If you're fishing for praise for the Obama admin, you're not going to find any from me. Real unemployment is over 15%, and that's the bottom line. Whether it drops a percentage or so (and then goes back up again next month) is irrelevant.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jaykimf wrote:
Kuros wrote:
jaykimf wrote:

Kuros wrote:
Its op-ed shallow sophistry at its worst.
Krugman' s position is supported by the actual results of the austerity policies as well as by the main stream body of economic thought over the last 60 years. You may disagree with Krugman, but to label his writings as sophistry reflects poorly on your own shallow analysis and argument.


*shrugs*

visitorq wrote:
Krugman is an absolute fool, and beyond discredited. I can't believe his name is even tossed around anymore.


Seconded.

So, you're one of those,
Kuros wrote:
let's just call them people,
who can't do any better than ad hominems.


Not at all. I presented a CRFB study and then an EU study accompanied by reasoned argument. And what I got in return was a NYTimes op-ed and moaning about cheap shots from a poster who is accustomed to taking cheap shots at me.

comm wrote:
Right now, at a 3.3% interest rate, we pay almost $500 billion per year just on interest payments on national debt. As we saw in "the great debt-ceiling debate", investors lose confidence if it appears that we don't have the ability (or will) to pay. That increases our interest rate which both increases our required payment per year and makes it even more difficult to find the ability/will to repay. Such a spiral rarely ends well.


Exactly. Krugman denies this danger out of ideological expediency.
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Unposter



Joined: 04 Jun 2006

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First of all, thanks to all of you tried to answer my question.

Second of all, Kuros, I never said Obama "controlls" the stock market. I have come to expect more from you than that. But, do you disagree that he has a "strong influence" on it. Isn't the stock market an indicator of the economy? There were a number of people who said that Obama has "wrecked" the economy but am I still missing something? It doesn't seem like he has - at least not anymore than anyone else if you are a strict "Austrian."

There does does seem to be some concensus that the Obama administration has at least temporarilly boosted the U.S. economy through stimulous. (BTW: not all of the stimulous is directly from Obama - I've read that supposedly Bernake (sp?) has used the Fed to pump up banks without notifying Obama - scary stuff that).

I understand the question about inflation, and thanks for that info, though it is yet to be seen how bad the inflation really will be.

Anyway, can you give me some ideas about what the economy would look like under a Ron Paul administration?
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
Anyway, can you give me some ideas about what the economy would look like under a Ron Paul administration?

And thank you for being open to other people's ideas, unposter.

Obviously the answer depends on how widely his plans are agreed to by the people and the congress and little would change in the short-term regardless. But assuming his plan is adopted, you could expect:
Lower and simpler Federal taxes
Job cuts from a large number of Federal departments (including defense)
Higher State taxes
More State government jobs
Higher interest rates
Lower inflation
More home loan defaults
Lower housing prices
Higher investment in the U.S. from foreign and domestic sources
Long-term job growth and economic stability
Fulfillment of Medicare/Medicaid/SS obligations without using inflation to make those payments worthless

Some of those things would happen during Paul's presidency, others would take more time. But the end result would likely be short-term pain (debt-withdrawal symptoms), but a more stable and resilient economy in the long-term.
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