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[ajosshi]

S Korea faces strategic choices

Seoul in a dilemma amid growing Sino-US rivalry in Asia

Amid an intensifying contest for primacy between the US and China, policymakers in Seoul are agonising over what strategic choices should serve the best interests of South Korea.

Washington is deepening its engagement in the strategically important and economically vibrant Asia-Pacific. Apparently seeking to keep a rising China in check, the US may hope that its long-standing ally South Korea, along with Japan, will move in tune with its foreign and defence policy.

Seoul appeared concerned that deepening military ties with the US could hinder its efforts to use China's influence to facilitate North Korea's denuclearisation and expand economic interests through business with its largest trade partner.

"We are now in a very delicate position where we face hard choices. We need to draw up a strategic vision to more sophisticatedly deal with the current situation, while policy-makers should remain cautious not to strain ties with any of them," said Chun In-young, professor emeritus at Seoul National University.

Since taking office in 2008, President Lee Myung-bak has prioritised improving ties with Washington. The ties had deteriorated under his liberal predecessors, who were often at odds with the US on policies toward the North and sought to rebalance the relationship with the ally.

The Lee administration clinched a bilateral free-trade pact with the US and joined US-led initiatives including a nuclear security campaign and anti-Tehran sanctions.

The relationship between the allies has become closer as the US stood firm in support of Seoul when it was attacked by its northern neighbour twice in 2010. China, at the time, was seen siding with its wayward ally Pyongyang, rather than denouncing it for its lethal provocations.

Seoul and Beijing have also sought to improve their ties, particularly on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of their diplomatic relations this year.

South Korea and China are now in negotiations over their bilateral free-trade agreement, a move that would further deepen their economic interdependence. The two-way trade volume, which stood at US$6.3 billion (BtBt182 billion) in 1992 when the two countries opened diplomatic relations, jumped to $200 billion last year.

But the ties had deteriorated over Beijing's forced repatriation of North Korean defectors and its claim to jurisdiction over Ieodo south of Jeju Island, a submerged rock in the overlapping exclusive economic zones of the countries.


Need for strategic vision

Recent controversy over a military intelligence-sharing pact between Seoul and Tokyo underlined South Korea's lack of a diplomatic strategy and vision, and apparently made Beijing wonder about its intentions, experts said.

For the US, the pact was a good opportunity to spur trilateral security cooperation. But China could construe the pact as part of efforts to hem it in.

"Had we had a well-thought-out diplomatic vision and dealt with the pact in a more sophisticated way, we would have handled it in a more judicious way," said Chun of the SNU.

"For the pact, South Korea should have sought to garner understanding from China so that we can minimise any negative impact in the relationship with Beijing. We could have explained the purpose of the pact [to better deal with North Korean threats]."

Washington has long sought to forge triangular security ties, but such efforts have been hamstrung by historical animosity between Korea and Japan, and the latter's repeated sovereignty claim to Korea's Dokdo.

Seoul failed to ink the pact with Tokyo after pushing the agreement without securing public consensus.

Given that Korea is surrounded by the world's major powers, the country needs a more prudent diplomatic strategy to respond to the changing security landscape, Chun stressed.

"To deal with security, diplomatic issues, we need to have a clear goal and vision, and remain sensitive to the [security] environment. The current government restored and strengthened ties with the US, but appears to have faltered while adapting to the changing environment," he said.

"South Korea is surrounded by big powers and has limits in terms of national power. We, thus, need to prioritise the relationship with the US, but at the same time, should pay closer attention to the relations with neighboring states to survive and flourish."


Time for balanced foreign policy

South Korea's diplomatic and security policy has long been centred on the US with their alliance moving toward a multi-faceted, valued-based partnership. Such a close relationship has been vital in coping with military threats posed by the unpredictable North Korea.

But too much reliance on the US could limit Korea's choices, especially when their national interests conflict, experts said.

Seoul has joined the US-led anti-Iran sanctions. Considering that it has long called for international help to denuclearise the North, the South could not help but participate in the punitive move against Tehran's controversial nuclear programmes.

But Seoul's decision apparently strained ties with the oil-rich Islamic republic where its public consumes many Korean products including electronic goods and cars, and enjoys Korean pop culture.

"In a situation when the US and China are competing for pre-eminence in the region, Seoul's policy unilaterally leaning toward the US would only end up limiting its strategic choices," said Yoon Pyung-joong, political philosophy professor at Hanshin University.

"We should not think that our interests will always coincide with those of the US. Adopting a policy that could cause friction with China should be avoided. Rather than becoming subordinate to the US, we should seek wise ways to capitalise on it for our national interest."

Above all, what is important for policy-makers is to grow out of their Cold-War mentality and seek a more balanced diplomatic policy. Seoul should also map out a more sophisticated policy for China whose regional influence continues to expand based on its economic and military might.

"To establish a durable peace system on the Korean Peninsula, we also need support from China. Trade volume with China is more than that with the US and Japan. Given all this, diplomacy focusing too much on the US should be reconsidered," said a security expert, who declined to be identified.


Importance of Korea-US alliance

Seoul's taking an ambiguous stance could undermine ties with the US whose military has long been one major pillar to ensure security and peace on the Korean Peninsula, experts said.

In particular, in the event of a sudden collapse of the North Korean regime, trust between South Korea and the US is critical as it could determine how far the US is willing to go to support Seoul's hope for national reunification.

"The Korea-US alliance is something that could determine the fate of our nation. We should look at it from a strategic standpoint, pushing aside all these political and ideological disputes over it," said Chung Sung-yoon at Ilmin International Relations Institute of Korea University.

Chung stressed that it is "risky" to walk a tightrope between the US and China as it could cause distrust between Seoul and Washington.

"Even if we took a shift toward China, China would not trust us all that much. Some say remaining neutral would help improve our interests amid the Sino-US rivalry, but we could be abandoned by both [with an ambiguous stance]," he said.

"A crack in the relationship with the US and any distrust between the allies would be too big a strategic loss. Remember that former President Roh Moo-hyun's strategy to play a 'balancing role' between the big powers was not that successful."


Multilateral framework

For the US, South Korea and Japan alike, ensuring that China remains a "satisfied, status-quo power" in the region is a crucial task.

Experts said that forging a strong cooperative network between South Korea, the US and Japan will help assertive China become a "responsible regional stakeholder.

"Now, China is a status-quo power. But as it gets stronger militarily and economically, China could become a revisionist and try to challenge the regional order," said Nam Chang-hee, a political science professor at Inha University.

"To prevent this situation, South Korea, the US, Japan as well as Australia can form a strong network to persuade China to remain a status-quo power and become a responsible regional stakeholder. It will help China fight off its temptation to become a revisionist. It is different from an alliance to counter or contain China."

Such a multilateral network is crucial, especially when China seeks to aggressively expand its maritime interests in the South China Sea where crucial sea lines of communications linking energy storehouses of the Middle East converge and many resources remain untapped.

Currently, China has been engaged in increasingly strident territorial disputes with Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea and Japan in the East China Sea. China and South Korea have also had a dispute over Ieodo.

"We have to capitalise on multilateral institutions such as the East Asia Summit where countries in the region openly express their opinion or grievances so that we can limit China's increasing assertiveness," said Kim Tae-hyun, a political science professor at Chung Ang University.

"We can show to Beijing on the public stage that their aggressive moves are not in their best interests. We should make diplomatic efforts so that we don't have to face any hard choice between the two big powers."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/S-Korea-faces-strategic-choices-30186218.html

[atwood]

I don't think China is interested in settling for the "status quo."