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If the U.S. military were to pull out of the ROK, I'd...
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If the U.S. military were to pull out of the ROK, I'd...
Drop everything and get the next plane out myself.
14%
 14%  [ 8 ]
Prepare for a slow but orderly withdrawal soon.
17%
 17%  [ 10 ]
Stay, but would move to Busan
3%
 3%  [ 2 ]
Stay, but be much more ready to evacuate.
7%
 7%  [ 4 ]
Stay, nothing would change.
52%
 52%  [ 30 ]
Stay, but move to Paju for front row seats.
5%
 5%  [ 3 ]
Total Votes : 57

Author Message
diver



Joined: 16 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, IF there is a war, it will probably end before the argument in this thread does.
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steelrails wrote:
Actually there was plenty of intelligence run up on all of those things. The fact that YOU didn't know or some random Joe Blow didn't, doesn't mean it came as a surprise.

I disagree with this strongly. Don't have time to find a link. Maybe later I will.

But yeah, the world was surprised by the nuke tests, by the missile launches, by the sinking of a ship by a sub, and (to a lesser degree) by the (success of the) satellite launch. (Not just the world, but millitary analysts and experts.) NK's military capabilities were underestimated.
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T-J



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yeonsinnae

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


When you say we were surprised by the test, do you mean we where surprised when the test occured, or by their announcement six days prior to the first test that they would conduct a test?

I hope we can agree that we new of a nuclear program to one degree or another for at least twelve years before the test.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hiamnotcool wrote:
CentralCali wrote:
Those who make comments such as yours betray more about themselves than about what they're commenting on.


Nah, I know it's a science. However, when people rely too heavily on it, it is amusing. People do their best with the numbers and statistics, then when the moment comes everything goes to lala land. The result can be comical. Providing speculation about a war as if it's fact is just ridiculous. Do the best you can, and prepare to adjust. Relying too heavily on "military science" can make a person come off as one of those "Military Experts" I see on cable news all the time. Especially when they don't have all the information at hand.

I'm not knocking the armed forces.


What you're not getting is that the issue here isn't us over-relying on military science, it's that you're spouting theories that completely ignore it. There's a difference. Some of the things suggested by you and other posters are completely ridiculous, not just from a standpoint of military science, but sheer logic and physics. It's like claiming that the Earth is the center of the universe and then saying that those of us who cite 'science' are over-relying on it and that your point of view is just as valid as anyone else's and "you can't really know the truth".


Quote:
Well see that is where we differ. You say "our best guess", I say when all you have is a "guess" you would be much better off overestimating until you can get something concrete to plan around. With the security in N Korea I don't see that happening anytime soon, so I prefer to err on the side of caution.


I prefer to get as close to accurate as possible given the available data, not plan for mythical monsters that exist only in the figments of one's imagination. You do realize that when it comes to military intelligence and military information, doubling or tripling the size of an enemy force and reporting that back and then planning around such things is extremely bad as well, right?

Planning for a mythical tunnel force leaping out of the ground like Shredder's Dimension X drill is dangerous if in so doing you denying resources to defending another point that will cost thousands of lives retaking it because you were on guard for the Tunnel Corps or worrying about a battalion of defectors suddenly materializing and Mad Maxing around the country

.
Quote:

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:28 pm Post subject:
Steelrails wrote:
Actually there was plenty of intelligence run up on all of those things. The fact that YOU didn't know or some random Joe Blow didn't, doesn't mean it came as a surprise.

I disagree with this strongly. Don't have time to find a link. Maybe later I will.


If we were as surprised as you say it would have touched off a major congressional inquiry and the cashiering of people in military intelligence and at the CIA. No such thing happened.

In fact the DPRK was known to be pursuing nuclear weapons ever since the early 90s and their withdrawal from the NPT as well as information from Pakistan regarding shared technology and the program of AQ Khan.

So, no, no one was surprised aside from CNN/US News & World Report guy saying that he is 'stunned, shocked, and the world is caught off guard'. That's like saying Americans were surprised by Bin Laden and 9/11. Surprised that it happened only if you hadn't been following terrorism and MidEast news for the past 10 years. Anyone who was in the know already knew.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will say that I wouldn't be surprised if NK tried to do some sort of small scale sustained conflict that would last about 1-4 weeks. Something enough to freak everyone out, but not enough for full on war, perhaps confined to a a single area of operations, and they might actually perform at a credible level in such a conflict.
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Paddycakes



Joined: 05 May 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There will never be a war, ever.

The NORKs only care about preserving the regime and nothing else.

They know if they attack in any meaningful way, that they're as good as dead.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

let me first say that no one wants the u.s. troops out of South Korea, well maybe some korean kids at a university. But having a divided korea means no one power has the geographical advantage that korea gives. From korea you dominate north Asia, you can paralyse shipping and control the air.

But if any one is silly enough to believe that a South korean army could stand up to a Chinese backed North korean army , lets see what happened in Vietnam. the U.s. trained, U.s. equipped armey lasted a few weeks after the u.s. forces left. Advanced Soviet and Chinese equipment and hardened North Vietmanese troops crushed the South Vietnamese.

Cheap victory for the Chinese they gain strategic superioity in North Asia. of course it would mean a large larger war since neither japan or Russia would want the Chinese to have the upper hand. See Russo-japanese war that was fought over korea.
No one comes to help, look at AFghanistan when the Soviets invaded. Not a peep from Europe not even a protest march. Same for other nations. Even when the Soviets had butchered about a million Afghans and still not a peep. pakistan, Saudi and the U.S. did help but no troops and they let the Afghans do the dying.

korea you have a springboard to Japan and can control Japanese shipping lanes and of course you have airbases that can dominate Japan. of course you can totally isolate Vladivostock cut the shipping there.
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CentralCali



Joined: 17 May 2007

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hiamnotcool wrote:
CentralCali wrote:
Those who make comments such as yours betray more about themselves than about what they're commenting on.


Nah, I know it's a science. However, when people rely too heavily on it, it is amusing.


Personally, I think you'd be less amused by it if you actually understood what it is and what it isn't. You might also want to get some education about international politics while you're at it.
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slothrop



Joined: 03 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by slothrop on Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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KimchiNinja



Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

slothrop wrote:
when Goldman starts dumping it's south korean investments and shorts samsung i'll be on the first plane to thailand.


Agreed. Although I'll flee to Singapore.
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newb



Joined: 27 Aug 2012
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where would Koreans run to?

Whereever they end up, they'll become refugees so we should treat them as such. Razz
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slothrop



Joined: 03 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by slothrop on Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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hiamnotcool



Joined: 06 Feb 2012

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steelrails wrote:
hiamnotcool wrote:
CentralCali wrote:
Those who make comments such as yours betray more about themselves than about what they're commenting on.


Nah, I know it's a science. However, when people rely too heavily on it, it is amusing. People do their best with the numbers and statistics, then when the moment comes everything goes to lala land. The result can be comical. Providing speculation about a war as if it's fact is just ridiculous. Do the best you can, and prepare to adjust. Relying too heavily on "military science" can make a person come off as one of those "Military Experts" I see on cable news all the time. Especially when they don't have all the information at hand.

I'm not knocking the armed forces.


What you're not getting is that the issue here isn't us over-relying on military science, it's that you're spouting theories that completely ignore it. There's a difference. Some of the things suggested by you and other posters are completely ridiculous, not just from a standpoint of military science, but sheer logic and physics. It's like claiming that the Earth is the center of the universe and then saying that those of us who cite 'science' are over-relying on it and that your point of view is just as valid as anyone else's and "you can't really know the truth".


Quote:
Well see that is where we differ. You say "our best guess", I say when all you have is a "guess" you would be much better off overestimating until you can get something concrete to plan around. With the security in N Korea I don't see that happening anytime soon, so I prefer to err on the side of caution.


I prefer to get as close to accurate as possible given the available data, not plan for mythical monsters that exist only in the figments of one's imagination. You do realize that when it comes to military intelligence and military information, doubling or tripling the size of an enemy force and reporting that back and then planning around such things is extremely bad as well, right?

Planning for a mythical tunnel force leaping out of the ground like Shredder's Dimension X drill is dangerous if in so doing you denying resources to defending another point that will cost thousands of lives retaking it because you were on guard for the Tunnel Corps or worrying about a battalion of defectors suddenly materializing and Mad Maxing around the country


Ok, let me try to explain because you are drawing a lot of strange conclusions from what I am telling you. It is not that I am ignoring military science, it is that when you are dealing with a bizarre country like N Korea it's good to be open to the possibility that THEY will ignore military science. If you are trying to plan operations, then pull out your calculator and plug away. If you are trying to trying to predict the enemies course of action, then consider that an enemy like N Korea may do something that is completely out of the ordinary. That is all I'm trying to say. You are not distinguishing me from other posters because you think I am arguing on their behalf. That is not the case.

As far as overestimating the enemies capabilities, intelligence usually involves coming up with a lot of different ways the enemy may attack. Usually there is one that is the most effective. Given the massive amount of unknowns in N Korea, it's good to take the time to think of the worst possible scenario as far as their equipment goes and plan accordingly. For example: N Korea destroys or occupies Seoul (somehow)...what do we do now? Stuff like that.

You have your chosen scenario, that's good. Now be open to the possibility that you are wrong, and listen to other people and the weird stuff they come up with.
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hiamnotcool



Joined: 06 Feb 2012

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CentralCali wrote:
hiamnotcool wrote:
CentralCali wrote:
Those who make comments such as yours betray more about themselves than about what they're commenting on.


Nah, I know it's a science. However, when people rely too heavily on it, it is amusing.


Personally, I think you'd be less amused by it if you actually understood what it is and what it isn't. You might also want to get some education about international politics while you're at it.


Yeah but then I would be less amused and it wouldn't be as fun.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who would embaro China if North Korea with Chinese assistance invaded South Korea.


Who??? No one. When russians were using poison gas on civilians in Afghanistan Europes trade with the U.S.S.R. increased.

A little closer to home. After the rape of Nanjing. when Japanese papers ran photos of headless corpses and front page stories of troops raping thousands of women. Trade with Britain increased by about 14%

There was no trade embargo when China had 300,000 troops in North Vietnam and when the Soviets were sending hundreds of ships amonth full of weapons.

No, life would go one. the South would start weakening civilain casualies would be high. Southern units would start to desert or mutiny.

ugly stuff. Many letters would be sent to the U.N. A few months the SOuth's factories are back up and running, just with a new boss.
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